Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 11 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Week 10 was an absolutely brutal week on Ball Street. Outside of Kyler Murray (QB2 overall, 30.9 FanDuel points) and Justin Herbert (QB9, 21.48), zero (0) of my 12 FanDuel Upside Plays finished within the top-15 players at their positions. Coming off a hot streak from Weeks 6 through 9, regression reared its ugly head in my lineups. While a handful of the players I discussed missed snaps due to injury (Mike Davis, Davante Adams, John Brown, Dallas Goedert), that success rate, or lack thereof, is simply unacceptable. The sole purpose of this column is to identify week-winning DFS plays, and I failed to deliver on that objective across the board. That being said, I’m ready to chalk up Week 10 as an “L” and begin preparations for a “W” in Week 11.
Sound good? Let’s dive in.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 11 DFS lineups.
Before we get started, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 11.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 11 and beyond!
Blue Chip: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Las Vegas ($9,200) – Coming off two straight 4+ touchdown performances, fantasy’s overall QB4 takes on a Raiders defense he shredded for 340 yards and 2 TDs in Week 5.
Mid-Cap: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Jacksonville ($8,000) – Big Ben and his talented receiving corps are hitting their stride to the tune of 9 passing touchdowns over the Steelers’ last three games. This week, they face a Jaguars defense giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Penny Stock: Jameis Winston (NO) vs. Atlanta ($7,200) – With Drew Brees out due to a rib injury, Jameis steps into a prolific offense taking on a Falcons team surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Blue Chip: Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs. Dallas ($10,500) – Over his last three games, “The Chef” is averaging an unreal 27/155/1.6TD stat line. This week, he finds himself in a plus matchup where the Vikings are favored by seven points.
Mid-Cap: Kalen Ballage (LAC) vs. New York Jets ($5,800) – Last week, Ballage saw 18 carries and 6 targets as LA’s unquestioned lead back. He should continue to see ample opportunities in what projects to be a run-heavy game script against the Jets.
Penny Stock: Salvon Ahmed (MIA) vs. Denver ($5,600) – Hot off a 21-carry game against the Chargers, Ahmed should lead the Dolphins’ backfield against a Broncos defense that gave up 4 rushing touchdowns in Week 10.
Blue Chip: Tyreek Hill (KC) vs. Las Vegas ($8,500) – The Mahomes-Hill stack is both expensive and worth every penny in Week 11 DFS lineups. Between this game’s shootout potential and the Raiders’ nothing-special defense, I’m playing this tandem everywhere I can.
Mid-Cap: Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. Dallas ($6,700) – The electric rookie is looking more “boom” than “bust” against a Cowboys defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through ten weeks.
*Penny Stock: Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs. Jacksonville ($6,400) – Johnson continues to see an elite target share in a Steelers offense that should dominate the Jaguars through the air. *Johnson is this week’s Cash Cow play. Get him in your lineups!
Blue Chip: Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Las Vegas ($8,000) – With 48 FanDuel points separating him from this season’s next-best tight end, Kelce seems to be the last man standing among reliable fantasy options at the position. He offers tantalizing upside this week as Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target.
Mid-Cap: Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. Cleveland ($5,800) – In Week 10, Goedert saw 6 targets despite missing a handful of snaps while being checked for a concussion. With another healthy week under his belt, I like him to bounce back in a big way against the Browns.
Penny Stock: Hayden Hurst (ATL) vs. New Orleans ($5,500) – Hurst has surpassed 5 catches and 50 yards in 3 straight games and takes on a Saints defense ranked 6th-worst against opposing fantasy tight ends.
Ball Street’s Week 11 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Ben Roethlisberger, $8,000
- RB – Dalvin Cook, $10,500
- RB – Kalen Ballage, $5,800
- WR – Tyreek Hill, $8,500
- WR – Justin Jefferson, $6,700
- WR – Diontae Johnson, $6,400
- TE – Hayden Hurst, $5,500
- FLEX – Salvon Ahmed, $5,600
- DEF – Dallas, $3,000
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.