Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 12 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
After a couple of unsuccessful Sundays, Week 11 was a get-right week on Ball Street. While Patrick Mahomes (Overall QB9, 22.52 FanDuel points) and Ben Roethlisberger (QB15, 17.68) were wildly underwhelming, I made my hay at the skill positions. “Blue Chip” running back Dalvin Cook (22.5, RB1) lived up to his hefty price tag, and all three of my wide receiver picks finished in the top-13 at the position. Tyreek Hill (WR5, 21.5) was the standout, while “Mid Cap” play Justin Jefferson (WR13, 16.1) and “Penny Stock” pick Diontae Johnson (WR12, 17.1) turned in strong performances. Additionally, both Travis Kelce (TE1, 22.86) and Dallas Goedert (TE4, 16.2) packed the stat sheets at the ever-thin tight end position. While I did have some misses (Jameis Winston and Hayden Hurst come to mind), this was a wildly profitable week on the Street. Let’s keep it rolling as we head into a Week 12 slate ripe with underpriced upside.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 12 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 12.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 12 and beyond!
Blue Chip: Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. Buffalo ($8,400): The rookie simply cannot be stopped. He’s scored below 21 FanDuel points just once this season, and he has three games with over 27 points. My money is on Herbert against a Bills defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers this season.
Mid-Cap: Tom Brady (TB) vs. Kansas City ($7,900): Brady has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games (sound familiar?), but he is in a great rebound spot against a Chiefs defense that gave up three passing touchdowns to Derek Carr in Week 12.
Penny Stock: Derek Carr (LV) vs. Atlanta ($7,100): The Falcons have given up top-four performances at quarterback in each of their last two games (Drew Lock, 30.2 and Taysom Hill, 24.2). The next man up is Derek Carr, who is coming off a top-eight performance against the Chiefs.
Blue Chip: Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs. Carolina ($11,000): Bell cow running backs with favorable Week 12 matchups are few and far between. Cook, who is averaging 27 carries per game over the last month, is worth every penny in a smash spot versus the Panthers.
Mid-Cap: Mike Davis (CAR) vs. Minnesota ($7,200): After a few quiet weeks, Davis got back on track with 14.9 FanDuel points in Week 11. With Christian McCaffrey expected to miss this Sunday’s game, the Panthers’ three-down back presents appealing underpriced upside against a middling Vikings defense.
Penny Stock: David Montgomery (CHI) vs. Green Bay ($6,000): Look, I don’t feel great about playing Montgomery, either. But at $6,000, he’s impossible to ignore against a Packers defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Given that he saw nearly six targets per game from Weeks 4 through 8, I’ll take the volume at a bargain.
Blue Chip: Keenan Allen (LAC) vs. Buffalo ($8,200): Allen has seen fewer than ten targets just ONCE in games he has finished with Justin Herbert at quarterback. I’m all about the Chargers stack this week, as they’ll play in a potential shootout with the Bills boasting a 53-point over/under.
Mid-Cap: Antonio Brown (TB) vs. Kansas City ($6,500): While he has yet to break out, Brown’s targets have increased in each of his three games played with the Bucs (5, 8, 13). This week, Tampa Bay will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game script while playing catch-up with Mahomes and company.
*Penny Stock: Jalen Reagor (PHI) vs. Seattle ($5,500): While the Eagles’ offense has been sputtering as of late, Reagor is priced near his floor against a Seahawks defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. *Reagor is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups!
Blue Chip: Darren Waller (LV) vs. Atlanta ($7,100): Hot off his best performance since Week 4, Waller is a must-play against a Falcons defense that has surrendered a league-high 11 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. With an over/under of 54 points, this week’s matchup will provide plenty of scoring opportunities for Waller and the Raiders’ offense.
Mid-Cap: Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. Seattle ($6,200): While Zach Ertz is likely to return from injury this week, Goedert has been producing in 2TE sets with Richard Rodgers on the field. Based on what we’ve seen from Ertz so far this season, Goedert should continue to operate as this offense’s 1A at tight end.
Penny Stock: Jordan Reed (SF) vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,000): In Week 10, Reed posted a 5-62 stat line, finishing as the TE6. Given that he’s fully healthy coming off San Francisco’s bye, Reed is massively underpriced for the upside he possesses. I’m slotting the 49ers tight end into every DFS lineup I can this week.
Ball Street’s Week 12 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Derek Carr, $7,100
- RB – Dalvin Cook, $11,000
- RB – Mike Davis, $7,200
- WR – Keenan Allen, $8,200
- WR – Antonio Brown, $6,500
- WR – Jalen Reagor, $5,500
- TE – Jordan Reed, $5,000
- FLEX – David Montgomery, $6,000
- DEF – New York, $3,000
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.