Every week fantasy football owners are confronted with difficult lineup questions. Who should you start, and who should you sit? That’s what many are left asking, often with little help. It’s good you landed here, as we can help each week using our Who Should I Start tool. Simply type in several players that you are deciding between per position or for your flex and we will let you know who the experts would start and who they would sit.
Here’s a look at the toughest start and sit decisions of the week along with our expert’s advice.
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Start Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE) or Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)?
51% of Experts Would Start Mayfield
Mayfield
It wasn’t the way the Browns wanted to head into the bye week, but the winds swirling limited him to just 122 yards through the air and just six points for the offense overall. Outside of one game against the Bengals defense where he went bananas, Mayfield hasn’t topped 15.58 fantasy points. We know this is a team that wants to run the ball, and there’s no better way to show that than let you know Mayfield has thrown the ball more than 30 times just once in his last seven games. The Texans have faced an average of 68.0 plays per game while Mayfield and the Browns have averaged just 60.6 plays per game, so we could see more volume than usual. The Texans have allowed 1.59 overall fantasy points per offensive snap to their opponents, which ranks as the second-highest number in the league, behind only the Falcons, so efficiency has been there, too. That’s allowed them to allow the third-most fantasy points per game overall, behind only the Seahawks and Falcons. When you remove all rushing totals from quarterbacks, the Texans have allowed 0.568 fantasy points per attempt to quarterbacks, which ranks as the second-highest number to only the Jaguars. The biggest concern we have here is that the Texans won’t be able to stop the Browns’ run game. If Chubb and Hunt run all over them, it will limit Mayfield’s pass attempts. This is where the high-play potential creeps in because even though the Texans have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs, they’ve allowed 17-plus fantasy points to 7-of-8 quarterbacks, including Jake Luton’s first NFL start last week. Mayfield should offer solid QB2 numbers, though his floor has been so low, it’s hard to say he makes it into the top-tier streamer conversation.
Tagovailoa
His second start looked much better than the first, as he completed 20-of-28 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, though the lack of volume is a problem. That’s just 50 pass attempts in his first two NFL starts, so unless he’s a hyper-efficient passer (like he was against the Cardinals), he’s not going to provide a very high floor for streamers. The Chargers have faced an average of 37.0 pass attempts per game, as teams have chosen to pass the ball 61.9 percent of the time against them, which is the sixth-highest mark in football. Volume has been necessary, as there have been just two quarterbacks who’ve averaged more than 7.17 yards per attempt against the Chargers. There have been four quarterbacks who’ve finished as top-12 options against the Chargers, but every one of them threw the ball 41-plus times. What has to make you feel good about Tagovailoa this week is that the Chargers have allowed five straight teams to score 29 or more points, while the Dolphins have a 25.3-point implied team total. The lack of pass attempts are a concern though, and unless the Chargers jump out to a big lead, it’s hard to see that changing, which is what keeps Tagovailoa in the middling QB2 range.
Start Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF) or Zack Moss (RB – BUF)?
58% of Experts Would Start McKinnon
McKinnon
Guessing the 49ers rotation at running back is an exhausting chore, if McKinnon leads the running backs in touches, he is a flex option against the Saints 2nd ranked fantasy running back defense.
Moss
The snaps over the last three weeks had been trending towards Moss having more fantasy value than Singletary, and that’s precisely what’s happened in Weeks 8 and 9. Over the last three weeks, Moss has played 35, 31, and 38 snaps, while Singletary has played 40, 28, and 31 snaps. Clearly, it’s still a timeshare, but when you factor in that Moss has six carries inside the five-yard line despite missing three games, while Singletary has just four of them while playing all nine games, you know which one has more value. Even the pass routes are starting to even out a bit over the last two weeks (Singletary 31, Moss 23), so Moss doesn’t even necessarily need a positive gamescript. The Cardinals have yet to allow a running back more than 84 yards on the ground this year, and that’s despite them facing 10 different running backs who’ve totaled double-digit carries. The 4.30 yards per carry they’ve allowed is right around the league average, so it’s not one to necessarily avoid, but teams have called a run play just 40.7 percent of the time against them. The Bills themselves call a run play on just 41.6 percent of their plays, so it’s not much different, though that’s netted the Bills running back combo to just 21.1 touches per game. Until they start leaning on one of these guys significantly more than the other, it’s going to be touchdown-or-bust most weeks. The Cardinals have allowed seven total touchdowns to running backs on 223 touches (one every 31.9 touches), which aren’t the greatest of odds. Knowing that Moss continues to trend in the right position, he’s the high-end RB3 in this matchup who is a bit more touchdown-reliant than some in that area of the rankings. Singletary is slowly fading into the RB4 conversation as someone who hasn’t topped 12 touches in four of the last five games and isn’t getting goal-line work.
Start J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) or J.D. McKissic (RB – WAS)?
69% of Experts Would Start Dobbins
Dobbins
We don’t know whether Ingram will be available for the Ravens this week, but it’s expected that he will be. That would completely destroy any value this backfield had, as they’d be back to a three-headed monster against a team who’s faced an average of just 57.0 plays per game. The good news is that teams have chosen to run the ball a league-high 51.3 percent against them, which has allowed running backs to rack up 28.1 touches per game against them. We can’t expect that for the Ravens running backs, as Lamar Jackson steals a big portion of that pie (because of that, Ravens running backs have averaged just 24.5 touches per game). This game will feature the two running backs who’ve faced eight-man defensive fronts the most: Damien Harris and Edwards. Both running backs have seen at least one extra defender in the box on 34.7 percent of their carries. To know that Edwards has averaged 4.5 yards per carry despite that is impressive. Of those 28.1 touches, 24.3 of them have been carries, which really does fit what the Ravens do, as they don’t target the running backs in the passing game (just 29 combined targets through eight games). The only running back who totaled more than eight carries against the Patriots and finished with less than 4.0 yards per carry was Frank Gore last week when he totaled just 46 yards on 12 carries. If Ingram plays, none of these running backs are great plays and would all rank outside the top-30 running backs for the week. If Ingram sits again, Edwards would have high-end RB3 appeal while Dobbins would be right there with him, maybe a smidge behind.
McKissic
Coming out of their bye week, it’s still a timeshare. Gibson fumbled early in the game, which led to McKissic playing a season-high 45-of-54 snaps and racking up a ridiculous 14 targets. It’s still just one week and we shouldn’t change our opinions on who each running back is. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per offensive snap to opponents this year, behind only the Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars. Through nine weeks, there’s been no team in the league who’s allowed more fantasy points per game to the running back position. In fact, the 35.0 PPR points per game they’ve allowed to them is 3.7 percent more than the closest team (Packers). There are just two teams who’ve allowed more than 11 total touchdowns to running backs this year, and the Lions are one of them. They’ve allowed 15 total touchdowns (10 rushing, 5 receiving) to them. Even if you remove the production they’ve allowed through the air, the Lions have allowed 21.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs, which is more than 10 teams have allowed to the position as a whole. They’ve allowed a touchdown every 16.7 touches to the running back position. If Washington can keep this game close (or have the lead), Gibson should smash. Even if you start looking at what the Lions have allowed through the air, it doesn’t look bad for McKissic, as they’ve allowed a league-high 8.26 yards and 2.17 PPR points per target to running backs. The 186.5 total yards per game they’ve allowed is the most in the NFL, and running backs have managed to average 31.3 touches per game against the Lions, so there should be enough to go around between these two running backs, though gamescript will determine just how good either will be. Gibson should be played as a strong RB2 this week who could explode if they hold a lead/keep the game close. McKissic should be played as a solid floor RB3 who has a chance to hit much more than that if Washington were to fall behind against his former team.
Start Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) or Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)?
60% of Experts Would Start Jefferson
Jefferson
He’s now seen five or fewer targets in four of his last five games. He’s starting to see why Stefon Diggs was frustrated during his time with the Vikings. The 26.0 pass attempts per game the Vikings have averaged make things insanely hard for the receivers to produce without offering some kind of splash-play potential. Jefferson certainly has that, but the Bears have allowed a league-low three wide receiver touchdowns all season, and they’ve still yet to have their bye week. It’s not just touchdowns, either. They’ve allowed a league-low 57.3 percent catch-rate to wide receivers (no other team is below 61.1 percent) and 7.55 yards per target (fifth-lowest in NFL). They have allowed 27 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the 10th-most in the league, and that’s what you have to hang your hat on. Jefferson does move into the slot about 33 percent of the time, which is the weakest link in the Bears secondary, as Buster Skrine has been burned for 35 receptions, 358 yards, and two touchdowns on 46 targets in coverage. Still, there have been just five wide receivers who’ve totaled more than 58 yards against the Bears this year. Jefferson should be considered a risky WR3 who you’re hoping for a big play from.
Boyd
Through eight games, Boyd is on track for 108 receptions, 1,168 yards, and six touchdowns. Keep in mind that those are his numbers while Joe Burrow figures things out in his first NFL season. It’s not just Burrow, either, as Boyd has totaled 215 targets over the first 24 games in Zac Taylor’s system. He’s the chain mover and the most reliant. He’s also the preferred option in the red zone, as he’s seen 11 targets in the red zone, while Higgins has seen six, and Green three. The Steelers have Mike Hilton defending the slot, a cornerback who can be beat. Randall Cobb, CeeDee Lamb, Willie Snead, Greg Ward, and Jerry Jeudy were all slot-heavy receivers who were able to post double-digit PPR points against them despite none of them seeing more than seven targets. Hilton actually had to miss last week, which led to safety Cameron Sutton coming down to defend the slot, and he allowed 3-of-5 passing for 66 yards. They’re saying Hilton “has a chance” to play this week, which means he may not even be 100 percent. The last time Boyd played against this Steelers defense was Week 12 of last year when he caught 5-of-9 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. There are just 12 receivers who’ve seen at least eight targets in 62.5 percent of their games and Boyd is one of them. Keep him out there as a low-end WR2 this week.
Start Christian Kirk (WR – ARI) or Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)?
64% of Experts Would Start Kirk
Kirk
If you were here last week, I didn’t like Kirk much because he was supposed to match up with Xavien Howard, the cornerback who ended up shutting down Hopkins. Still, Kirk didn’t have an easy matchup against Byron Jones, but it was better. Jones was their prized free agent who was torched for 116 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Kirk has now scored at least 12.8 PPR points in each of his last four games, including 20-plus points in his last three, with the game against the Dolphins being the most meaningful, as it was the first difficult matchup he succeeded in. That gives us a lot more confidence heading into this week’s matchup with the Bills. While Hopkins deals with Tre’Davious White, Kirk should see a lot of either Josh Norman or Levi Wallace in coverage. Wallace has been filling in for Norman, who’s been dealing with a hamstring injury, but he’s played much better than Norman. If Norman gets cleared, it’s actually an upgrade for Kirk. The Bills have allowed 11 different receivers to finish as the WR31 or better this year, and with the possibility of White slowing Hopkins, we could see another big game for Kirk, who’s caught fire. He should be considered a mid-to-low-end WR3 at this point.
Landry
In the first game without Odell Beckham, we watched Landry rack up 11 targets. The results were hardly ideal (four catches for 52 yards), but the wind clearly affected all pass-catchers in that game. Landry is one of two wide receivers who’ve seen 50-plus targets without a touchdown (A.J. Green is the other). That’s why there’s a negative view on him this year, but a fun fact is that he’s averaging essentially the same yards per target as he did last year. Targets are a big deal against the Texans, as they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per target (2.07) to wide receivers this year. It surely helps that receivers have caught a massive 71.3 percent of passes thrown to them against the Texans, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The matchup is great for Landry, as the Texans have safety Eric Murray coming down to defend slot receivers. He’s allowed 20-of-26 passing for 252 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Landry should be able to get back into the WR3 conversation this week.
Start Jimmy Graham (TE – CHI) or Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA)?
66% of Experts Would Start Gesicki
Gesicki
We thought the move to Tagovailoa might have been a good thing for Gesicki but we haven’t seen it through two games. Granted, Tagovailoa has thrown just 50 pass attempts, but Gesicki has seen just six of them (12 percent target share) that have amounted to just four catches for 50 scoreless yards. The Chargers have allowed just 6.60 yards per target to tight ends, which is the 13th-lowest mark in the league, though they have allowed six touchdowns on 60 targets to them. That’s one every 10.0 targets, which is the sixth-most often. With Preston Williams likely out of the lineup, it opens some opportunities. There have been five different tight ends who’ve finished as top-eight options against the Chargers, and even though touchdowns have played a big role in that, five tight ends have totaled at least 45 yards against them. This isn’t a great matchup, but the loss of Desmond King (Chargers traded him away) might show up with Gesicki lined up in the slot. He’s in the high-end TE2 conversation. He comes with risk, sure, but what tight ends don’t?
Graham
How does Graham go from not performing with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, to producing as the No. 6 tight end through nine weeks? He’s played an extra game, so it’s a little inflated, but still, it’s kind of crazy especially when you consider how poor his quarterback play has been. It certainly helps that he ranks fourth among tight ends in targets and has seen at least five targets in 8-of-9 games. It’s no secret the Vikings are struggling with wide receviers, but they’re also struggling with tight ends, as they’ve allowed a league-high 10.5 yards per target to them. The Packers are the only other team who’s allowed more than 9.2 yards per target. Despite playing lackluster competition, they’ve allowed at least 46 yards and/or a touchdown to seven different tight ends, including 14.9 or more PPR points to three of them. The best part is that no tight end has seen more than eight targets against them. The 76.0 percent completion-rate surely helps. While they’ve allowed just three tight end touchdowns, we know that number is highly volatile, and Graham is tied for the second-most targets (8) inside the 10-yard line (not just among tight ends, either). Given the number of pass attempts we’re expecting, Graham should be given top-10 consideration.
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