Here’s a look at fantasy football rankings from our most accurate experts of the 2020 season. These rankings are for half-PPR scoring fantasy football formats.
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RK | PLAYER NAME | TEAM | OPP | MATCHUP RATING | START/SIT | PROJ. FPTS | AVG. POINTS | % GAMES | OPPORTUNITY | EFFICIENCY |
1 | Kyler Murray | ARI | at SEA | 7.2 | A+ | 25.3 | 5.5 | 73% (11/15) | 14% | Great |
2 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | at LV | 6 | A | 24.9 | -0.4 | 43% (7/16) | 3% | Great |
3 | Russell Wilson | SEA | vs. ARI | 6.4 | A | 23.6 | 0.9 | 46% (7/15) | 3% | Great |
4 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | vs. TEN | 6.4 | A | 22.7 | 1.1 | 53% (8/15) | 7% | Good |
5 | Justin Herbert | LAC | vs. NYJ | 6.8 | A | 21.7 | 8.2 | 87% (7/8) | 4% | Good |
6 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | at JAC | 9.4 | B+ | 20.7 | 2 | 66% (6/9) | 3% | Good |
7 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | vs. NE | 4.4 | B+ | 20.2 | 0.7 | 53% (8/15) | 8% | Average |
8 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | at IND | 3.4 | B | 19.6 | 1.3 | 53% (8/15) | 1% | Good |
9 | Matt Ryan | ATL | at NO | 5.8 | B | 19.1 | -1.2 | 47% (8/17) | 1% | Awful |
10 | Cam Newton | NE | at HOU | 5.8 | B- | 18.5 | 0.6 | 75% (6/8) | 25% | Awful |
11 | Tom Brady | TB | vs. LAR | 3 | B- | 18.3 | 0.5 | 41% (7/17) | 4% | Average |
12 | Carson Wentz | PHI | at CLE | 8 | C+ | 18 | 1.8 | 56% (9/16) | 6% | Average |
13 | Derek Carr | LV | vs. KC | 5 | C | 17.7 | 0.8 | 56% (9/16) | 3% | Poor |
14 | Joe Burrow | CIN | at WAS | 8.6 | C | 17.2 | 2.2 | 66% (6/9) | 7% | Awful |
15 | Matthew Stafford | DET | at CAR | 3.2 | C- | 17.3 | 0.4 | 55% (5/9) | 1% | Average |
16 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | at DEN | 5.8 | C- | 16.7 | -0.9 | 12% (1/8) | 3% | Poor |
17 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | vs. DAL | 6.6 | D+ | 16.7 | 0.2 | 50% (7/14) | 0% | Good |
18 | Jameis Winston | NO | vs. ATL | 9.9 | D | 16.4 | 1.6 | 33% (5/15) | 3% | Awful |
19 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | at BAL | 5 | D | 16.2 | 4.4 | 60% (9/15) | 1% | Great |
20 | Philip Rivers | IND | vs. GB | 7 | D | 16 | -0.1 | 46% (7/15) | 1% | Awful |
Cam Newton (NE)
The last three games, Newton has finished as the QB12, the QB8, and the QB11. Due to his rushing upside, he’s a safe bet every single week to finish within the top-12. Now, Newton gets a matchup against the Houston Texans that are struggling to stop anyone on defense. Newton should be viewed as a mid-range QB1 in this matchup.
Joe Burrow (CIN)
If you look at NFL’s NextGenStats, you’ll see that Burrow has completed 4.1 percent more than he’s been expected to based on how tight coverage is and the depth of the throws, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the NFL, behind only Russell Wilson. Based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that takes the competition they’ve played into consideration, Washington ranks as the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. After coming out of a game against the league’s pass rush (Steelers) who generate a sack on 10.5 percent of dropbacks, Burrow gets the No. 2 pass rush, as Washington has generated a sack on 9.6 percent of dropbacks. Because of that, teams have chosen to drop back and pass just 52.8 percent of the time (fourth-lowest in NFL). If there’s a glimmer of hope for Burrow, it’s that Washington generated just a 14.7 percent pressure-rate in Week 10 against Matthew Stafford, which allowed him to throw for 276 yards and three touchdowns. There’s been just one game this year where Burrow has thrown the ball fewer than 36 times and that’s important in this game because Washington has faced just 29.2 pass attempts per game. Their opponents have thrown the ball just 52.8 percent of the time, but knowing the Bengals throw on 62.9 percent of plays, we could see more production than most expect. Breaking down their schedule a bit, Washington has crushed weak competition, while better quarterbacks have played competently. It’s been feast or famine. Which group do you see Burrow in? I’d lean towards the top half, though the pressure is the biggest concern, as his offensive line hasn’t done a good job protecting him. Consider him a semi-risky QB2 who does have top-12 upside and might be a candidate for tournament lineups.
RK | PLAYER NAME | TEAM | OPP | MATCHUP RATING | START/SIT | PROJ. FPTS | AVG. POINTS | % GAMES | OPPORTUNITY | EFFICIENCY |
1 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | vs. DAL | 8.4 | A+ | 22 | 3.1 | 50% (6/12) | 24% | Great |
2 | Alvin Kamara | NO | vs. ATL | 6.6 | A+ | 20.1 | 1.1 | 43% (7/16) | 23% | Average |
3 | Derrick Henry | TEN | at BAL | 4.4 | A+ | 15.8 | 2.2 | 50% (7/14) | 26% | Average |
4 | Aaron Jones | GB | at IND | 3.8 | A | 15.5 | 1.4 | 46% (6/13) | 21% | Average |
5 | Josh Jacobs | LV | vs. KC | 8.4 | A | 15 | -2 | 23% (3/13) | 22% | Good |
6 | Miles Sanders | PHI | at CLE | 6.4 | A | 14.9 | -0.2 | 38% (5/13) | 11% | Average |
7 | Nick Chubb | CLE | vs. PHI | 5.6 | A | 14.9 | -1.1 | 41% (5/12) | 18% | Great |
8 | Mike Davis | CAR | vs. DET | 8.6 | A | 14.6 | -0.6 | 28% (4/14) | 17% | Poor |
9 | James Robinson | JAC | vs. PIT | 5.2 | A | 14.6 | 2.6 | 44% (4/9) | 16% | Great |
10 | James Conner | PIT | at JAC | 6.4 | A- | 14.5 | -3.7 | 41% (5/12) | 22% | Poor |
11 | Antonio Gibson | WAS | vs. CIN | 7 | A- | 14.4 | 1.4 | 55% (5/9) | 17% | Good |
12 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | at MIN | 4.8 | A- | 13.7 | -0.8 | 43% (7/16) | 27% | Poor |
13 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | vs. PHI | 6.2 | B+ | 12.4 | 0.6 | 68% (11/16) | 20% | Good |
14 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | at LV | 5.8 | B+ | 11.9 | -2.5 | 33% (3/9) | 18% | Awful |
15 | Duke Johnson Jr. | HOU | vs. NE | 8.4 | B | 11.8 | -0.9 | 35% (5/14) | 9% | Awful |
16 | Todd Gurley II | ATL | at NO | 3.4 | B | 11.7 | 0.4 | 56% (9/16) | 20% | Good |
17 | Kalen Ballage | LAC | vs. NYJ | 5.8 | B | 11.4 | 1.4 | 45% (5/11) | 18% | Awful |
18 | Damien Harris | NE | at HOU | 9.8 | B | 11.1 | 1 | 37% (3/8) | 5% | Average |
19 | Ronald Jones II | TB | vs. LAR | 6.8 | B | 10.8 | -0.1 | 47% (8/17) | 12% | Poor |
20 | Giovani Bernard | CIN | at WAS | 6.4 | B | 10.7 | 0.3 | 62% (10/16) | 9% | Average |
21 | Melvin Gordon III | DEN | vs. MIA | 6.8 | B- | 10.5 | -1.3 | 42% (6/14) | 13% | Great |
22 | Salvon Ahmed | MIA | at DEN | 4.8 | B- | 10.4 | 4.5 | 100% (2/2) | 16% | Poor |
23 | Carlos Hyde | SEA | vs. ARI | 6.2 | C+ | 9.9 | 0.5 | 45% (5/11) | 7% | Great |
24 | J.D. McKissic | WAS | vs. CIN | 6.6 | C+ | 9.9 | -0.2 | 43% (7/16) | 9% | Awful |
25 | Kenyan Drake | ARI | at SEA | 4.6 | C+ | 9.4 | 1.8 | 35% (5/14) | 20% | Average |
26 | Leonard Fournette | TB | vs. LAR | 6.6 | C | 9.3 | -1.4 | 21% (3/14) | 8% | Poor |
27 | Nyheim Hines | IND | vs. GB | 8.6 | C | 8.9 | 2.9 | 56% (9/16) | 10% | Great |
28 | Chase Edmonds | ARI | at SEA | 6.2 | C | 8.8 | 0.5 | 30% (4/13) | 12% | Average |
29 | Rex Burkhead | NE | at HOU | 7.8 | C | 8.7 | 2.8 | 56% (9/16) | 12% | Great |
30 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | vs. GB | 8.6 | C | 8.7 | -2.3 | 33% (3/9) | 19% | Awful |
31 | La’Mical Perine | NYJ | at LAC | 5.6 | C | 8.7 | -0.9 | 25% (2/8) | 4% | Good |
32 | J.K. Dobbins | BAL | vs. TEN | 5.2 | C | 6.8 | -0.2 | 44% (4/9) | 6% | Great |
33 | Darrell Henderson | LAR | at TB | 3.8 | C | 6.8 | 0.6 | 40% (6/15) | 24% | Poor |
34 | Le’Veon Bell | KC | at LV | 6 | C- | 6.8 | -3.3 | 18% (2/11) | 4% | Awful |
35 | Jamaal Williams | GB | at IND | 4 | C- | 6.7 | -0.1 | 38% (5/13) | 10% | Awful |
36 | Malcolm Brown | LAR | at TB | 4 | C- | 6.6 | 1.9 | 56% (9/16) | 15% | Good |
37 | Latavius Murray | NO | vs. ATL | 5.4 | D+ | 6.5 | -0.2 | 31% (5/16) | 7% | Poor |
38 | Gus Edwards | BAL | vs. TEN | 4.4 | D+ | 6.4 | 2 | 50% (8/16) | 13% | Average |
39 | Phillip Lindsay | DEN | vs. MIA | 7.8 | D+ | 6.2 | -2.4 | 30% (4/13) | 7% | Poor |
40 | Joshua Kelley | LAC | vs. NYJ | 7.4 | D | 6 | -0.8 | 44% (4/9) | 8% | Awful |
41 | Jordan Wilkins | IND | vs. GB | 8.4 | D | 5.9 | 1.5 | 50% (7/14) | 6% | Awful |
42 | Mark Ingram II | BAL | vs. TEN | 4.6 | D | 5.9 | -0.1 | 46% (6/13) | 12% | Average |
43 | Adrian Peterson | DET | at CAR | 9 | D | 5.8 | 0.4 | 43% (7/16) | 10% | Awful |
44 | Tony Pollard | DAL | at MIN | 4.2 | D- | 5.8 | 2.2 | 60% (9/15) | 3% | Average |
45 | DeeJay Dallas | SEA | vs. ARI | 5 | D- | 5.3 | 2.4 | 57% (4/7) | 14% | Poor |
46 | Devontae Booker | LV | vs. KC | 8.6 | D- | 5.2 | 2.3 | 46% (7/15) | 3% | Great |
47 | James White | NE | at HOU | 6.6 | D- | 5.2 | -0.9 | 35% (5/14) | 4% | Awful |
48 | Cam Akers | LAR | at TB | 3.6 | F | 5 | -2.1 | 42% (3/7) | 6% | Awful |
49 | Matt Breida | MIA | at DEN | 4.2 | F | 5 | -1.9 | 27% (3/11) | 2% | Awful |
50 | Kerryon Johnson | DET | at CAR | 8.6 | D- | 5 | 0.1 | 36% (4/11) | 6% | Good |
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
Gibson performed well in a great matchup last week and there’s little reason to doubt that he won’t do the same thing here. Washington should look to lean on Gibson early and often in this one and he has an excellent chance of finding the end zone yet again. Fire up Gibson as a low-end RB1.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
The Chiefs have been having a real issue getting their ground game going, though it’s hard to blame Edwards-Helaire, as he’s averaged a rock-solid 4.65 yards per carry, which ranks No. 3 among running backs with 100-plus carries, behind only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. For whatever reason, he’s been limited to 10 or less carries in four of the last five games. The Chiefs backfield as a whole has averaged just 24.0 touches per game, so lack of volume is a real problem. The Raiders have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 19.7 carries, so volume hasn’t been necessary to post solid fantasy numbers against them. Running backs have also been targeted 23.5 percent of the time against the Raiders, which is the highest mark in the league. The bye week is generally when teams decide to make major fundamental changes to their attack moving forward, so it’s possible that the Chiefs realize they need to get their ground game working a bit more. Clelin Ferrell has been the best run-stopping edge rusher the Raiders have and he’s out for this game after testing positive for COVID. Back in their Week 5 game, Edwards-Helaire totaled 80 yards on just 13 touches, so if he gets more, he should produce like you expected him to when you drafted, but again, the lack of touches is problematic. Unless the Chiefs have changed their ways, he’s stuck in middling RB2 territory in what’s been a great matchup for running backs. The Chiefs could choose to go back to the way things were pre-Bell, as he’s shown he’s in the final stages of his career and doesn’t have the appeal he once did. He’s nothing more than a handcuff to Edwards-Helaire at this point, as he’s totaled just 14 touches that netted 41 total yards over the last two games combined.
Salvon Ahmed (MIA)
After seeing just seven carries in his season debut with the Dolphins, Ahmed was thrust into a larger role in Week 10 and he delivered, racking up 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Chargers. The combination of DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird received just four carries between the two of them, so Ahmed basically got the Myles Gaskin role. The downside was that he finished with just one target. It wasn’t lack of snaps, as he led the running backs in routes. We have to assume he’s done enough to hold onto that role, even with Breida expected back. Even when healthy, Breida hasn’t totaled more than 10 touches in a game with the Dolphins. The Broncos had been one of the best run defenses in football, but they had a hiccup last week, allowing a ridiculous 193 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries to the Raiders running backs last week. I suppose we’ve seen them slip in Week 8 as well when the Chargers running backs combined for 188 yards on 34 carries, though they didn’t score. Through the first six weeks, the Broncos hadn’t allowed more than 116 rushing yards in a game. What changed? Mike Purcell, their best nose tackle, went down with a season ending injury and has missed the last three weeks. The loss of him and Jurrell Casey have proven to be too much for them to handle. Because of that, Ahmed should be played as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. I’d say higher, but we really don’t know how the touches will be divided with Breida back. As for Breida, he’s nothing more than an RB4-type option who’s guaranteed nothing more than five touches or so.
Week 11 Wide Receiver Rankings
RK | PLAYER NAME | TEAM | OPP | MATCHUP RATING | START/SIT | PROJ. FPTS | AVG. POINTS | % GAMES | OPPORTUNITY | EFFICIENCY |
1 | DeAndre Hopkins | ARI | at SEA | 5.6 | A+ | 17.8 | -0.6 | 60% (9/15) | 13% | Average |
2 | Davante Adams | GB | at IND | 4.8 | A+ | 17.7 | 2.3 | 69% (9/13) | 19% | Good |
3 | Tyreek Hill | KC | at LV | 6.6 | A+ | 16.9 | -1.6 | 46% (7/15) | 17% | Good |
4 | Julio Jones | ATL | at NO | 8.4 | A+ | 16.3 | -0.7 | 38% (5/13) | 15% | Poor |
5 | Keenan Allen | LAC | vs. NYJ | 7.4 | A+ | 15.9 | 0.5 | 60% (9/15) | 10% | Average |
6 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | vs. ARI | 7.6 | A+ | 15.6 | 0.7 | 46% (7/15) | 13% | Great |
7 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | vs. CIN | 8.8 | A | 15.4 | 0.1 | 40% (6/15) | 11% | Average |
8 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | vs. ARI | 8 | A | 15.2 | -2.1 | 26% (4/15) | 14% | Good |
9 | Adam Thielen | MIN | vs. DAL | 8 | A | 14.1 | -1.7 | 33% (4/12) | 19% | Good |
10 | Michael Thomas | NO | vs. ATL | 7.6 | A | 13.9 | -4.2 | 50% (5/10) | 13% | Awful |
11 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | at JAC | 7.8 | A | 13.7 | 0.6 | 40% (6/15) | 9% | Good |
12 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | at JAC | 7.6 | A | 13.7 | -1.2 | 50% (6/12) | 12% | Good |
13 | Chase Claypool | PIT | at JAC | 7.2 | A | 13.5 | 5.4 | 77% (7/9) | 19% | Good |
14 | A.J. Brown | TEN | at BAL | 3.8 | A | 13.4 | 3.8 | 69% (9/13) | 9% | Great |
15 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | vs. DAL | 7.8 | A | 13.4 | 3 | 44% (4/9) | 8% | Average |
16 | Will Fuller V | HOU | vs. NE | 8.2 | A | 13.3 | -0.5 | 53% (7/13) | 12% | Great |
17 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | at WAS | 5.4 | A- | 13 | 0.4 | 50% (8/16) | 12% | Awful |
18 | Tee Higgins | CIN | at WAS | 6.4 | A- | 12.9 | 3.6 | 66% (6/9) | 12% | Average |
19 | Robby Anderson | CAR | vs. DET | 5.4 | A- | 12.6 | 1 | 58% (10/17) | 11% | Awful |
20 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | at TB | 6.2 | A- | 12.5 | -2.2 | 43% (7/16) | 10% | Poor |
21 | Robert Woods | LAR | at TB | 5.4 | B+ | 12.4 | 0.9 | 60% (9/15) | 12% | Great |
22 | Chris Godwin | TB | vs. LAR | 6.8 | B+ | 12.3 | -0.5 | 36% (4/11) | 8% | Average |
23 | D.J. Moore | CAR | vs. DET | 5.4 | B+ | 12 | -0.6 | 50% (8/16) | 8% | Average |
24 | Amari Cooper | DAL | at MIN | 7 | B | 12 | -3.3 | 31% (5/16) | 11% | Awful |
25 | Mike Evans | TB | vs. LAR | 6.6 | B | 11.9 | -2.4 | 46% (6/13) | 14% | Average |
26 | D.J. Chark Jr. | JAC | vs. PIT | 5.4 | B | 11.9 | -0.8 | 21% (3/14) | 12% | Good |
27 | Christian Kirk | ARI | at SEA | 8.6 | B | 11.7 | -0.6 | 50% (7/14) | 12% | Great |
28 | DeVante Parker | MIA | at DEN | 4.8 | B | 11.6 | 0.5 | 43% (7/16) | 9% | Average |
29 | Brandin Cooks | HOU | vs. NE | 8.4 | B | 11.6 | -0.4 | 40% (6/15) | 12% | Average |
30 | Jakobi Meyers | NE | at HOU | 8 | B | 11.6 | 1.2 | 50% (6/12) | 9% | Awful |
31 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | at LAC | 5 | B- | 11.4 | 0.9 | 58% (7/12) | 8% | Great |
32 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | at NO | 7.8 | B+ | 11.4 | 1.4 | 63% (7/11) | 24% | Poor |
33 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | vs. PHI | 5.4 | B- | 11.3 | -1.3 | 25% (4/16) | 8% | Awful |
34 | Marvin Jones Jr. | DET | at CAR | 4 | C+ | 11.3 | 0 | 50% (6/12) | 17% | Average |
35 | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | vs. MIA | 4 | B- | 11.2 | 0.2 | 44% (4/9) | 10% | Awful |
36 | Mike Williams | LAC | vs. NYJ | 7.4 | C+ | 11.2 | -0.1 | 42% (6/14) | 12% | Poor |
37 | Antonio Brown | TB | vs. LAR | 6.4 | C+ | 11 | -2 | 50% (1/2) | 5% | Awful |
38 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | at MIN | 6.8 | C+ | 10.3 | 1.5 | 66% (6/9) | 12% | Poor |
39 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | vs. DET | 5.6 | C+ | 10.3 | -0.2 | 43% (7/16) | 8% | Good |
40 | Travis Fulgham | PHI | at CLE | 7.6 | C+ | 9.4 | 2.8 | 40% (4/10) | 17% | Average |
41 | Marquise Brown | BAL | vs. TEN | 5.6 | C | 9.2 | -3.6 | 26% (4/15) | 17% | Awful |
42 | Jalen Reagor | PHI | at CLE | 7.4 | C | 9.1 | 0.7 | 75% (3/4) | 8% | Poor |
43 | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | vs. GB | 3 | C | 8.6 | 0.5 | 50% (3/6) | 5% | Awful |
44 | Corey Davis | TEN | at BAL | 5.4 | C | 8.5 | -0.2 | 42% (6/14) | 9% | Good |
45 | Tim Patrick | DEN | vs. MIA | 4 | C | 8.5 | 1.3 | 60% (9/15) | 10% | Average |
46 | Emmanuel Sanders | NO | vs. ATL | 8.4 | C | 8.5 | -0.6 | 42% (6/14) | 11% | Poor |
47 | Michael Gallup | DAL | at MIN | 6.6 | C | 8.3 | -0.8 | 43% (7/16) | 12% | Awful |
48 | KJ Hamler | DEN | vs. MIA | 4 | C | 8.3 | 1.1 | 57% (4/7) | 6% | Poor |
49 | Josh Reynolds | LAR | at TB | 5.4 | C | 8 | 1.9 | 75% (12/16) | 12% | Awful |
50 | Breshad Perriman | NYJ | at LAC | 5.4 | C- | 8 | 4 | 66% (8/12) | 10% | Good |
Keenan Allen (LAC)
We’re now eight games into Herbert’s career (half of a season), and over that time, Allen is the No. 5 wide receiver in fantasy football, which includes a game where he had to leave before halftime. He saw “just” seven targets in Week 10, which was his season-low in the full games he’s played. He’s now going out to play a Jets team that’s allowed six wide receivers to finish with 22-plus PPR points and as the WR11 or better. The toughest matchup against them is in the slot, so it’s good news that Allen has played just 46.5 percent of his snaps there. It’s not like he can’t beat Brian Poole, but it’s easier to beat Pierre Desir and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter. Allen should see Austin more, who’s been the better of the two, though he’s still allowed a 99.8 QB Rating in his coverage. Look, when you have a receiver who’s averaging 10.3 targets per game going against a secondary that’s allowed a 7.17 percent catch-rate and 9.34 yards per target, you’re starting him as a WR1, period.
A.J. Brown (TEN)
After catching a 21-yard pass on the second play of the game, Brown didn’t have another catch for the remainder of the contest against the Colts. It’s a game of inches, they say. He dropped what would’ve been a 72-yard touchdown in the first quarter of that game, which would have completely changed his day. It was his first game with fewer than seven targets, so we can’t overreact, but his matchup in Week 11 isn’t going to be easy one to get back on track. The Ravens have allowed a wide receiver touchdown once every 43.8 targets, which ranks as the best in the league. The Titans must find a way to get the ball into Brown’s hands, because once that happens, he’s electric, averaging 6.8 yards after the catch. That’s how he overcame a tough matchup against the Bears, so maybe he can do it again. With Jimmy Smith dinged up, the Ravens turned to Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on the perimeter, while moving to veteran Tramon Williams in the slot. That worked out pretty well, as the Patriots receivers accounted for just five catches and 59 yards. This is far from a great matchup and Brown proved that in the playoffs last year, catching just 1-of-3 targets for nine yards against them. He’s too talented to bench, but temper expectations into WR2 territory against a team who’s allowed just two wide receivers to finish with more than 81 yards this year.
Mike Evans (TB)
It may have gone overlooked by some, but Evans has played in the slot 52.5 percent of the time over the last four games. The Bucs are trying to free him up from those shutdown perimeter cornerbacks. He’s caught 9-of-10 targets for 123 yards while in there, so it’s working. When playing against the Rams, wide receivers are averaging 8.3 fewer fantasy points than their seasonal average, which makes this the toughest matchup in football. Teams are targeting wide receivers on just 49.8 percent of their pass attempts, which is easily the lowest mark in the league, as no other team has seen fewer than a 51.7 percent target share. This is problematic when we have three wide receviers that need to be projected for heavy targets. Not only are targets a problem, but wide receivers have caught a touchdown once every 39.0 targets, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league, behind only the Ravens. Evans will have his hands full on the perimeter, as both Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams have been lights out. Evans should be considered a WR3 this week in what might be the toughest matchup in football.
RK | PLAYER NAME | TEAM | OPP | MATCHUP RATING | START/SIT | PROJ. FPTS | AVG. POINTS | % GAMES | OPPORTUNITY | EFFICIENCY |
1 | Travis Kelce | KC | at LV | 5.4 | A+ | 15.5 | 0.9 | 60% (9/15) | 9% | Great |
2 | Darren Waller | LV | vs. KC | 6.2 | A | 12.7 | -1.9 | 31% (5/16) | 19% | Poor |
3 | Mark Andrews | BAL | vs. TEN | 8.6 | A | 11.2 | -1.1 | 46% (7/15) | 16% | Good |
4 | T.J. Hockenson | DET | at CAR | 4 | B+ | 10.2 | -0.4 | 54% (6/11) | 19% | Poor |
5 | Hunter Henry | LAC | vs. NYJ | 8.2 | B+ | 9.3 | -2.5 | 33% (5/15) | 8% | Awful |
6 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | at CLE | 6.6 | B | 8.7 | -0.4 | 33% (4/12) | 4% | Good |
7 | Noah Fant | DEN | vs. MIA | 4.4 | B | 8.3 | -1 | 33% (5/15) | 7% | Average |
8 | Rob Gronkowski | TB | vs. LAR | 6.4 | B- | 8 | 0.1 | 50% (5/10) | 11% | Poor |
9 | Hayden Hurst | ATL | at NO | 7.2 | B- | 7.3 | 0.2 | 43% (7/16) | 7% | Good |
10 | Eric Ebron | PIT | at JAC | 7 | C+ | 7.3 | -0.3 | 50% (5/10) | 11% | Average |
11 | Austin Hooper | CLE | vs. PHI | 8 | C+ | 7.2 | -2.8 | 36% (4/11) | 7% | Awful |
12 | Jonnu Smith | TEN | at BAL | 5.2 | C | 7.1 | 0.4 | 53% (8/15) | 15% | Great |
13 | Jared Cook | NO | vs. ATL | 9.4 | C | 6.9 | 1.1 | 53% (8/15) | 10% | Average |
14 | Mike Gesicki | MIA | at DEN | 4.6 | C- | 6.5 | 0.1 | 31% (5/16) | 11% | Awful |
15 | Logan Thomas | WAS | vs. CIN | 6.4 | C- | 6.2 | 0.5 | 40% (6/15) | 8% | Average |
16 | Dalton Schultz | DAL | at MIN | 5.4 | D+ | 6.1 | 1.1 | 40% (6/15) | 5% | Good |
17 | Robert Tonyan | GB | at IND | 4.4 | D+ | 5.8 | 1.5 | 42% (6/14) | 6% | Great |
18 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | at TB | 3.6 | D | 5.8 | 2.1 | 60% (9/15) | 8% | Great |
19 | Trey Burton | IND | vs. GB | 7.2 | D | 5.1 | 1.2 | 66% (4/6) | 12% | Average |
20 | Kyle Rudolph | MIN | vs. DAL | 8.4 | D | 4.8 | -0.1 | 46% (7/15) | 4% | Poor |
Dallas Goedert (PHI)
He was hurt early in the game, which led to him missing some time to get checked for a concussion. It allowed his teammate Richard Rodgers step in to produce a bit. The two of them combined for 11 targets, eight receptions, and 93 yards last week, so the thought process behind playing Goedert was correct but the results were less than ideal. The Browns have allowed just 8.98 yards per reception to tight ends, which is the second-lowest number in the league, but have still managed to allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to them. Volume has been a constant against them, as there have been eight tight ends who’ve seen six-plus targets against them. The lack of linebacker and safety health/talent on the roster is likely the reason for that. Whatever the case, eight tight ends have also racked up four-plus receptions in this matchup, which gives Goedert a floor that tight end owners can only dream of in 2020. Did you know that Goedert’s four catches for 33 yards last week ranked 15th among tight ends? Seriously, it’s bad. Knowing the targets and receptions will be there again this week, keep Goedert in lineups as a TE1.
Jonnu Smith (TEN)
Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was the first since Week 5 where Smith saw more than four targets? It’s no coincidence that he hasn’t caught more than two balls since Week 5, either. It seems that his increased usage earlier in the season was due to A.J. Brown being out of the lineup, as his return has buried Smith down the pecking order. He hasn’t topped 40 yards since way back in Week 3, which puts him back in the touchdown-or-bust territory with many other tight ends. The Ravens have allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends on the season, but if there’s one position the Ravens are average against, it’s tight ends. They’ve allowed a 67.2 percent catch-rate (14th), 7.33 yards per target (14th), a touchdown every 16.0 targets (15th), and 1.78 PPR points per target (16th). See what I mean about average? Smith falls into the high-end TE2 range as someone who’s flashed at times but is no longer a must-start.
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