Every week fantasy football owners are confronted with difficult lineup questions. Who should you start, and who should you sit? That’s what many are left asking, often with little help. It’s good you landed here, as we can help each week using our Who Should I Start tool. Simply type in several players that you are deciding between per position or for your flex and we will let you know who the experts would start and who they would sit.
Here’s a look at the toughest start and sit decisions of the week along with our expert’s advice.
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Start Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) or Carson Wentz (QB – PHI)?
71% of Experts Would Start Wentz
Burrow
If you look at NFL’s NextGenStats, you’ll see that Burrow has completed 4.1 percent more than he’s been expected to based on how tight coverage is and the depth of the throws, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the NFL, behind only Russell Wilson. Based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that takes the competition they’ve played into consideration, Washington ranks as the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. After coming out of a game against the league’s pass rush (Steelers) who generate a sack on 10.5 percent of dropbacks, Burrow gets the No. 2 pass rush, as Washington has generated a sack on 9.6 percent of dropbacks. Because of that, teams have chosen to drop back and pass just 52.8 percent of the time (fourth-lowest in NFL). If there’s a glimmer of hope for Burrow, it’s that Washington generated just a 14.7 percent pressure-rate in Week 10 against Matthew Stafford, which allowed him to throw for 276 yards and three touchdowns. There’s been just one game this year where Burrow has thrown the ball fewer than 36 times and that’s important in this game because Washington has faced just 29.2 pass attempts per game. Their opponents have thrown the ball just 52.8 percent of the time, but knowing the Bengals throw on 62.9 percent of plays, we could see more production than most expect. Breaking down their schedule a bit, Washington has crushed weak competition, while better quarterbacks have played competently. It’s been feast or famine. Which group do you see Burrow in? I’d lean towards the top half, though the pressure is the biggest concern, as his offensive line hasn’t done a good job protecting him. Consider him a semi-risky QB2 who does have top-12 upside and might be a candidate for tournament lineups.
Wentz
Wentz is currently on a 16-game pace for 3,717 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. Gross. It’s not pretty in Philadelphia and it’s getting very difficult to feel even remotely confident plugging Wentz into your starting lineup. It’s a fine matchup on paper, with the Browns allowing the 11th most fantasy points to the QB position, but there’s no way we can trust Wentz now. He’s a risky high-end QB2 play this week with a wide range of outcomes.
Start Damien Harris (RB – NE) or Todd Gurley (RB – ATL)?
59% of Experts Would Start Gurley
Harris
What makes Harris’ production on the ground that much more special is the fact that he’s done it while seeing eight-man defensive fronts on a league-high 43.5 percent of his carries. No other running back in the NFL is over 34.0 percent. Teams know it’s coming and they still haven’t been able to stop it. Running backs have averaged 30.8 PPR points per game against the Texans, which ranks as the third-highest number in the league. It certainly helps that they’ve averaged a ridiculous 27.9 carries per game against them. Not touches per game… carries. They’ve faced more carries than 19 teams have seen touches to running backs. When you combine that with the 5.53 yards per carry they’ve allowed (just one other team is above 4.88 yards per carry), you get a massive 22.8 fantasy points per game on the ground alone. That’s more than 15 teams allow to the running back position as a whole… in PPR formats. Think about that. They’ve allowed 204.9 fantasy points on the ground, while there’s been just one other team (Lions) who’s allowed more than 168.8 fantasy points on the ground. All in all, the Texans have faced a league-high 31.9 running back touches per game. They’ve now allowed 1,715 total yards to running backs, which is 95 more than any other team. Harris has earned the right to be started as a solid RB2, though his lack of passing game usage makes him gamescript dependent and presents volatility.
Gurley
Gurley has been unable to surpass 2.79 YPC over his last four games. For a starting NFL RB, that’s absolutely atrocious and it’s even more surprising when you factor in that he played Minnesota, Detroit, and Carolina in that time frame. This legitimately may be the final year that we see Gurley in the NFL due to his production and the fact that his knee issue seems to be flaring up. He always has a chance to find the end zone, but it’s going to be tough sledding in this matchup against the Saints defense. Gurley should be viewed as a touchdown-dependent RB2 this week.
Start Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) or Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)?
57% of Experts Would Start Fournette
Hines
I can’t tell you how many followers have asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it’s tough to say that my guess is any better than theirs. Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, outside of the fact that Taylor has been slowly declining. Hines looked extremely good on Thursday night, but he’s looked good before and hasn’t received a lot of touches. Wilkins will likely lose touches after alligator-arming his goal-line target that easily could’ve gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don’t have a clear play here, as the Packers are a team to target with running backs. Running backs have averaged 0.21 more fantasy points per play against the Packers than they do on average. That’s the highest mark in the NFL, though their opponents have struggled to rack up plays. When you look at the production they’ve allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the most in the NFL. By comparison, running backs account for just 24.9 percent of the production the Falcons give up goes to running backs. When comparing production allowed to running backs and wide receivers, the Packers have allowed just 2.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams allow about 12.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs. It’s not just on the ground, either, as running backs have seen a massive 22.9 percent target share against them (4th in NFL). Despite the Packers facing just 28.0 touches per game to running backs (right around the league average), they’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to them. That’s because they’re allowing a rushing touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is more often than any other team in the league. They’ve also allowed a league-high 7.40 yards per target and 1.94 PPR points per target through the air to running backs. All in all, the Packers have allowed more fantasy points per opportunity to running backs than any team in the league. The problem is that we don’t know who to trust in this backfield. If Taylor doesn’t get it done here, he’s droppable. I’m willing to take the risk and play him as an upside RB3. Hines falls into a similar space, whose floor should be higher than Taylor’s, though as referenced in the chart above, he’s hardly a guarantee for more than five touches. Wilkins should lose more touches and fall into RB4 territory.
Fournette
Did you need a reminder to never fully trust any Bucs running back? It seemed like Jones would be on the bench for the remainder of the game after fumbling on their first drive, but Bruce Arians went back to him after watching Fournette drop an easy pass in the flats. Jones proceeded to rip off a big run that led to a career day on the ground, racking up 198 total yards and a touchdown. Here’s a fun stat: Based on the number of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact a running back has, they have an expected yards per carry. Based on that number from NFL’s NextGenStats, Jones is averaging 1.41 more yards per carry than the average running back would, which ranks fourth to only Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert, and Dalvin Cook. The Rams are dominant against the pass, but they’ve also been pretty good against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to them. As far as carries go, teams are averaging 19.4 carries per game against them (fourth-fewest), which is detrimental to Jones’ role as the primary two-down back, as he still concedes about 40-45 percent of the carries to Fournette over the last month. They allow just 4.03 per carry, so it’s not like efficiency has been great. The Rams have allowed near the league average in yards per target (5.62) to running backs, which bodes well for Fournette, who sees nearly twice the targets that Jones does. But all-in-all, the Rams rank as the fourth-toughest opponent based on weighted opportunity. This isn’t a game to expect a repeat performance out of Jones, who should be viewed as a high-end RB3 who comes with risk of touching the ball less than 15 times. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Fournette has a bigger game based on the strengths and weaknesses of the matchup, so he remains in the RB3 territory.
Start Amari Cooper (WR – DAL) or D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)?
53% of Experts Would Start Cooper
Cooper
The Cowboys receiving corps does get a bit of a boost with Dalton back in the lineup, but it’s still not to the point where we can fully trust them in our starting lineups. Cooper was able to put together a solid performance the last time Dalton played and this is a matchup where he should be able to get open regularly. Cooper can be started as a low-end WR2 this week that should see plenty of targets, but he’ll need to find the end zone to finish within the top-15.
Moore
Moore has been the definition of inconsistent this season. Just as optimism begins to rise, Moore falls short of expectations. Shortly after, when expectations are low, Moore rises to the occasion and strings together a solid performance in a tough matchup. It’s going to be hard to trust Moore this week due to his volatility, but he absolutely belongs in your lineup as a high-upside WR2.
Start Jamison Crowder (WR – NYJ) or Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE)?
61% of Experts Would Start Crowder
Crowder
He wound up playing in Week 9 but it was the first time all season he played a game and saw fewer than 10 targets. Is it a result of Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims being healthy? It’s possible, so we can’t automatically assume he’s the target hog he was to start the year, though it also could’ve had something to do with him being questionable throughout the week and not necessarily being built into the gameplan. The Chargers traded away their starting slot cornerback Desmond King at the trade deadline, which has led to last year’s undrafted free agent Tevaughn Campbell covering the slot. That… hasn’t gone well. He’s allowed 9-of-11 passing for 92 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Jakeem Grant walked into relevance last week, totaling 4/43/1 on just five targets. If the Jets understand the matchups and where to exploit, Crowder should get his double-digit targets again this week. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3.
Meyers
Last week, Meyers was the only Patriots WR that was targeted. Yes, you read that correctly. This makes my job pretty easy from a projections standpoint! Meyers is obviously the only WR on New England that you should be going anywhere near and he’s truly emerged the last couple of weeks as a really solid option for your fantasy lineups. In this matchup against the Texans, Meyers should be viewed as a locked-in WR3 with upside.
Start Logan Thomas (TE – WAS) or Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA)?
71% of Experts Would Start Thomas
Gesicki
In the three games with Tagovailoa under center, Gesicki has seen just 11 targets, caught six passes, and totaled 90 scoreless yards. That’s not going to get anyone excited, especially when we know that target share isn’t the problem. Gesicki actually has a decent 17 percent target share over the last two weeks, but the lack of pass attempts drags everyone down. The Broncos have allowed the 12th-fewest points per game to tight ends, but they have allowed the 10th-most receptions, which highlights a lack of touchdowns. When you see they’ve allowed just two of them on 61 targets, you know why they’re a matchup that’s “in the red.” Still, it’s not great to hear that tight ends average 13.2 percent fewer fantasy points against the Broncos than they do on average, which is the eighth-worst number in the league. Eight different tight ends have finished in-between 31-49 yards against them, with just one tight end topping that (Hayden Hurst, 62 yards). This seems like another game where Gesicki could net 30-50 yards, and knowing the Broncos haven’t been susceptible to touchdowns, he’s nothing more than a low-ceiling TE2.
Thomas
It was a tough matchup for Thomas last week, so to see him walk away with a career-high 66 yards was a surprise. It wasn’t all great, though. He saw six targets, which isn’t really all that much when you consider Smith threw the ball 50 times, as it amounts to just a 12 percent target share. Still, he hasn’t seen fewer than four targets in a game this season, which keeps his streaming appeal alive and well. On top of that, he has a matchup with the Bengals this week, a defense that’s already allowed seven different tight ends have double-digit PPR days. Tight ends are averaging a massive 8.4 targets per game against the Bengals, which ranks as the second-most in the league. The 63.2 percent completion-rate is slightly below average, but everything else they’ve allowed to tight ends is above average, including the 12.15 yards per reception, touchdown every 12.7 targets, and 1.87 PPR points per target. Thomas should be viewed as a solid high-floor TE2 who can be streamed.
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