Week 12 NFL DFS Stacking Advice (2020 Fantasy Football)
When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Kansas City at Tampa Bay (Over/Under 56.0)
- Kansas City Team Total: 29.5
- Tampa Bay Team Total: 26.5
- Las Vegas at Atlanta (Over/Under 53.0)
- Las Vegas Team Total: 28.0
- Atlanta Team Total: 25.0
- Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo (Over/Under 52.5)
- Buffalo Team Total: 28.25
- Los Angeles Team Total: 24.25
- Tennessee at Indianapolis (Over/Under 51.5)
- Indianapolis Team Total: 27.25
- Tennessee Team Total: 24.25
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Derek Carr (QB – LV):$7,100 / Nelson Agholor (WR – LV): $5,200
After many offseason questions about his future, Derek Carr has put together a great 2020 season in which he has shown that he belongs as the Raiders’ franchise quarterback. He has 19 passing TDs to just three interceptions on the season to go along with a 69.75% completion percentage. The Raiders certainly rely on their running game often, but Carr has been efficient with his volume.
Making his 2020 season all the more impressive, Derek Carr has yet to face a passing defense that is a top-10 matchup for opposing quarterbacks. His first such matchup comes this Sunday against the Falcons, who are allowing the most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Carr could reach his ceiling in this game that has the second-highest over/under on the main slate.
A lot of DFS players are going to flock to tight end Darren Waller ($7,100), who has been great so far in 2020. I think that Waller is still very much in play, especially in cash contests. However, in tournaments, I’m going to shoot for upside with Agholor. The big-play threat has seen more work in the red zone, which has helped him haul in six of Carr’s 19 passing TDs on the season. Atlanta is the best matchup for fantasy wide receivers, and Agholor could put together a big day in this high-scoring affair.
Many have pointed out Matt Ryan‘s struggles when top wide receiver Julio Jones is held out of action. Jones is currently questionable for Sunday’s game. If he misses, I am more hesitant about bringing-it-back with Atlanta options. However, wide receiver Calvin Ridley ($8,100) should have success against a weak Raiders secondary whether Jones is active or not.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): $8,600 / Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): $7,900
I am so excited for this game between two of the best young quarterbacks in the AFC. I could have listed either quarterback here, but I’m deciding to highlight the Buffalo side for a few reasons. Josh Allen is only $200 more expensive than Justin Herbert on FanDuel ($400 more on DraftKings), and Allen simply has much more rushing upside and volume. The Buffalo offense runs through Allen, who contributes most of the team’s rushing totals as well.
The Chargers have not faced elite quarterbacks in their most recent stretch of games. However, if we go back to the beginning of the season, the Chargers allowed 300+ passing yard games to Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Josh Allen is playing much closer to the level of those QBs so far in 2020. It was announced that the Chargers will be without cornerback Casey Heyward and edge rusher Melvin Ingram in Week 12, which are big losses on the defensive side of the ball.
Josh Allen has reached his ceiling many times in the 2020 season. He has 28+ FanDuel fantasy points five different times already, and he finds himself in a favorable matchup in a game that features a 52.5 point over/under. Stefon Diggs has seen at least eight targets in five straight games. He most recently caught 10 of 10 targets for 93 yards and a TD against Arizona in Week 10. Based on his receiving yardage total and his usage in the red zone, Diggs should have more than four receiving TDs at this stage in the season. We could see that TD regression hit in this high-scoring matchup.
As I mentioned, I love the idea of a game-stack for Buffalo and Los Angeles this week. The Chargers have been a great team to utilize all season. Their defense cannot stop anybody while their offense has been prolific. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been nothing short of incredible, and he has peppered plenty of targets to veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen ($8,200) who continues to showcase his elite route-running abilities. Allen has comfortably been a WR1 ever since Herbert took over, and he most recently caught 16 of 19 targets on his way to 145 yards and a TD.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB – CAR): $7,000 / D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): $7,300
After missing last week’s game, it appears that Bridgewater is on track to return for Week 12. First-year head coach Matt Rhule and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady have done an excellent job in getting the most of this offense that has been without star running back Christian McCaffrey for much of the season. Bridgewater has appeared to turn a new corner in this system, as he has averaged 255 passing yards per game on a 72% completion percentage.
Even without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers have plenty of weapons who can create after the catch. Running back Mike Davis has been a great replacement, while wide receivers Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel have been excellent weapons in the offense as well. Bridgewater has recorded double-digit fantasy points in his past two games, including a 28 FanDuel fantasy point effort at Kansas City earlier this month.
We can certainly install a double-stack with the Carolina offense, as all of Bridgewater’s wide receivers are in play. However, I’m choosing to highlight the deep-threat in DJ Moore. He has averaged nine targets per game in his last two contests, and he enters Week 12 fifth in the NFL in receiving yards. He will have opportunities to get loose against a Minnesota secondary that is the third-best matchup for fantasy wide receivers. Wide receiver Robby Anderson ($6,400) offers a bit of a discount, and he has seen the majority of Carolina’s targets this season. He is twelfth in the NFL in receiving yards himself and could carry a lower ownership percentage after a few quiet weeks.
The most obvious bring-back player is running back Dalvin Cook ($11,000). While he carries the most expensive salary we have seen on FanDuel this season, he could be worth it against the run funnel defense of Carolina. With wide receiver Adam Thielen most likely out for the game, the already run-heavy Minnesota offense could lean entirely on their bell-cow running back. It’s much more possible to fit Cook’s salary with Bridgewater as a budget quarterback.
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