Welcome to Air Yard Analysis! Each week, I’ll break down the trends in air yards across the NFL. In case you haven’t used air yards for fantasy analysis before, here’s the rundown on what the advanced stat means:

Fantasy football is a game of volume. Snaps, carries, targets, receptions, yards, red-zone looks — all of these reflect the opportunities a player receives in a game. While it’s up to the player to capitalize on their chances, a player’s efficiency tends to vary more than their opportunities.

Air yards are another volume stat that’s crucial to understanding a player’s value. Air yards measure the total distance that a thrown ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the player in question, and they help us to understand which targets are worth more than others.

For example, a wide receiver who earned six targets and eight air yards is far less valuable than one who earned four targets and 92 air yards, even if the second player failed to catch all of their looks. That’s because a best-possible six receptions for eight yards gives you only 6.8 PPR points, while four catches for 92 yards would let you 13.2 PPR points. That’s a higher ceiling, and the second player could even drop a pass and still out-perform the first player.

One of the best ways to gauge how an offense uses a receiver is to look at his average depth of target (aDOT). By dividing a player’s air yards by their total targets, we get a sense of how far beyond the line of scrimmage a player is usually targeted. The metric helps us to distinguish between high-volume players and low-volume deep threats.

Each week, I’ll read through and analyze every team’s air yards to give you my take. I’ll include every player with a target in my charts, and I’ll highlight which players are leading the league in each stat. All stats are from airyards.com.

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Arizona Cardinals

Takeaways: Hopkins continues to lead the way in Arizona’s passing game … it looks like Kyler Murray’s arm has healed some, as most of these players saw more usage downfield than they’d seen recently … Christian Kirk’s usage has plummeted following Murray’s injury, and he’s no longer the high-upside option he once was … Chase Edmonds has been trending down, too, and he’ll be a game-time decision this week, so expect Kenyan Drake to see more work beyond the line of scrimmage like he did last week.

Atlanta Falcons

Takeaways: With Julio Jones “week-to-week” for the rest of the regular season, expect a heavy dose of Calvin Ridley moving forward … Ridley will get more downfield work than usual without Jones, and he’ll have a shot to lead the league in air yards by season’s end … with perimeter backup Olamide Zaccheaus sidelined for at least another game on injured reserve, this offense is pretty much down to Ridley, Gage, and Hurst … Gage got used further downfield than usual last week, and while it’s late in the season to speculatively track developments in usage, he could be worth a start in Week 16 if that continues.

Buffalo Bills

Takeaways: The Bills produced two of the league’s biggest producers of air yards, both of whom scored touchdowns on Sunday … Diggs found paydirt on a 19-yard catch, while Davis scored on one that went for 13 yards … while I loved Davis as a waiver pickup, it might be time for his managers to move on, as John Brown was designated to return from injured reserve … he may not be ready to go for Week 15, but he will probably be back for Week 16 … Cole Beasley remains a high-volume, short-yardage weapon, and that gives him more value in standard-scoring leagues than in PPR formats.

Carolina Panthers

Takeaways: With D.J. Moore sidelined, Robby Anderson had a predictably solid week against the Broncos … the veteran wideout finished with eight catches for 84 yards … he’s adapted well to Teddy Bridgewater‘s safe, short-range playstyle … so has Curtis Samuel, whose aDOT of 6.1 was actually above his season average … with Christian McCaffrey sidelined for at least another week, expect the Panthers to emphasize their passing game once again … that said, Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander will shut down either Anderson or D.J. Moore, so be careful when starting a Panthers wideout.

Chicago Bears

Takeaways: It was the Allen Robinson show last week, as he ended up with 76% of Chicago’s air yards … he’ll have an easy matchup with the Minnesota Vikings this week, and he’s a high-upside option this week … while it’s not supported by his data from last week, Darnell Mooney has been a fantastic deep threat this season, and you can tell by his season-long air yard stats … he’ll have an opportunity to gash Minnesota’s soft secondary for some chunk plays downfield … he’s a great boom-or-bust punt play in DFS and in deeper redraft leagues

Cincinnati Bengals 

Takeaways: The Bengals featured A.J. Green last week, but you can’t expect any receiver to do much in this offense with Joe Burrow sidelined … the below-average aDOTs that each of these receivers earned last week shows how much Cincinnati’s offense has regressed without him … it’s unclear whether Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen will start this week, but Cincinnati’s offense is one to avoid completely, as they’ll play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Nigth Football. 

Dallas Cowboys

Takeaways: Michael Gallup had nice peripherals but didn’t produce many fantasy points … he led the Cowboys in air yards and targets (6), but he caught only two of those passes for 23 yards … Amari Cooper led the team in receiving yards despite finishing third in air yards, as he hauled in four of his five targets for 51 yards and a score … he’s the only Cowboys receiving asset you can trust in fantasy.

Denver Broncos

Takeaways: The Broncos haven’t been good all year, but Drew Lock showed some signs of life on Sunday … he threw for four touchdowns, a career-best, and K.J. Hamler scored half of them … Hamler led the team in air yards on his paltry three targets because Lock didn’t target many other players that far downfield … Jerry Jeudy may rank fifth in total air yards, but he is the PPR WR52 on the year, and he doesn’t have much fantasy appeal as anything more than an unreliable boom-or-bust option.

Detroit Lions

Takeaways: These numbers don’t mean much, as Matthew Stafford isn’t expected to play in Week 15 … without their star quarterback, most of these weapons will see dramatic falloffs in efficiency; Chase Daniel just doesn’t have Stafford’s arm strength … Kenny Golladay’s injury has allowed Marvin Jones to work his way into the league’s top-10 for total air yards, but with Daniel, don’t expect many splash plays … Hockenson and Amendola may be the best weapons in this passing game to target due to their short-yardage work … that said, I wouldn’t consider starting Amendola outside of very deep PPR leagues.

Green Bay Packers

Takeaways: Aaron Rodgers continues to do more with less … while Davante Adams is certainly elite, none of Rodgers’ other weapons are particularly proven at this point in their careers … Adams now ranks in the league’s top-10 for air yards among active players (D.J. Moore outranks him otherwise) despite a relatively mid-range role … that speaks to his massive target share — Adams ranks fifth in total targets (121) despite having played in only 11 games … MVS remains a fantastic boom-or-bust deep threat to consider in DFS or deeper redraft leagues. 

Houston Texans

Takeaways: The Texans had to make do without Brandin Cooks last week, and their legion of backups did their best … popular waiver pickup Keke Coutee disappointed those who started him in Week 15, but he should bounce back against the Colts since Cooks should draw Xavier Rhodes in coverage … I wouldn’t trust Steven Mitchell to get the same downfield work that he got last week, as Hansen and Coutee did the most damage the last time the Texans also had Cooks in the lineup.

Indianapolis Colts

Takeaways: Boy, Hilton is sure lighting up consolation brackets everywhere … he’ll face the Texans again this week, a team he torched for eight catches, 110 yards, and a score back in Week 12 …  Philip Rivers has only been able to support one fantasy-relevant receiver for most of this season, and with Hilton now back in his good graces, it’s hard to get excited about starting Pascal or Pittman … Indy’s committee approach at tight end has made all of them basically unstreamable, as you need one of them to score to get any value out fo them at all.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Takeaways: A week after he drew just two total targets and 11 air yards, Keelan Cole led Jacksonville in just about every receiving metric: air yards, targets (12), receptions (7), receiving yards (67), receiving touchdowns (1) … with Gardner Minshew back under center, we can project these receivers for some higher-upside showings … that said, Cole’s great game points to how arbitrarily the targets are divvied up here in Jacksonville, and the only weapon you can trust enough to start is D.J. Chark … of course, he’s still a boom-or-bust play, but they all are … Chark’s just got the best floor out of any receiver in this offense.

Kansas City Chiefs

Takeaways: The Chiefs have two players ranked top-five in receiving yards: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce … from the air yards data, you might expect the leader to be Hill, but it isn’t … Kelce leads the entire league in receiving yards with 1,250, while Hill ranks fourth with 1,158 … both are likely to carry their managers through the fantasy playoffs with their high-volume roles … that said, their success has come at a cost, as no other receiving weapons in this offense have enough fantasy value to warrant starting consideration outside of very deep formats … even Clyde Edwards-Helaire seems like a shaky option given how well Hill and Kelce have performed.

Las Vegas Raiders

Takeaways: What a career resurgence for Nelson Agholor, huh? … the dude leads the Raiders in total air yards through 14 weeks, and he’s beaten out a first-round pick (Ruggs) and third-rounder (Bryan Edwards) for the opportunity … Darren Waller is the only other fantasy-relevant receiving option in this offense, as his high-volume, short-yardage role translates into tons of PPR points for the managers smart enough to have invested in him.

Los Angeles Chargers

Takeaways: Although their record isn’t good, the Chargers’ passing offense has looked solid with Justin Herbert under center … while I was worried about Keenan Allen’s short-yardage volume with Austin Ekeler sidelined, the injury to Mike Williams ensured that both players would put up points last week … with Williams sidelined, Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton flashed their talent as long-range weapons, and both would be viable boom-or-bust plays this week … they’ll play on Thursday Night Football, so act fast if they’re still on your waiver wire.

Los Angeles Rams

Takeaways: The Rams’ run-heavy offensive scheme is a far cry from the offense we saw score 54 points against the Kansas City Chiefs a few years ago … Goff threw for 413 yards and four scores in that game, marks that he hasn’t really come close to in any game this year … both Woods and Kupp have been relegated to purely short-yardage roles, and they both have fewer air yards to date than auxiliary weapon Josh Reynolds … they’re still decent fantasy options, but it’s hard to trust them outside of PPR leagues due to their reliance on yards after the catch and limited touchdown potential … among the NFL’s top 150 receivers, Kupp ranks 84th in yards per catch (11.0) while Woods sits in 91st (10.5) … they’re both below tight ends and slot receivers like Randall Cobb (11.6), Russell Gage (11.2), Jonnu Smith (11.2).

Miami Dolphins

Takeaways: Hollins led the Dolphins in air yards while Bowden led them in almost every other receiving stat … Bowden’s slot-based volume makes him an interesting plug-and-play in PPR this week depending on who Miami has available to them … the return of Isaiah Ford could increase Bowden’s competition for short-range targets, and that could mean Mack Hollins would benefit the most from Miami’s currently banged-up roster … that said, the Dolphins’ perimeter wideouts will have to contend with J.C. Jackson and Stephon Gillmore this week.

Minnesota Vikings

Takeaways: Smith finished fourth in air yards, yet he led the Vikings in receiving yards produced last Sunday … Minnesota did their best against the Buccaneers, but Dan Bailey’s efforts (or lack thereof) undermined their ability to stay competitive … Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are both high-upside receivers in this offense, but they don’t have the volume to have high floors … that said, you should continue to feature them in your lineups.

New England Patriots

Takeaways: N’Keal Harry has looked better in recent weeks, but it’s still surprising that the Patriots took him before D.K. Metcalf … the best receiver to target in this offense remains Jakobi Meyers, but it’s worth noting that Damiere Byrd out-paced him in both air yards and targets (8) last week … I expect him to bounce back against the Dolphins if he’s working out of the slot, however, as Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are tough matchups on the perimeter … that said, if Julian Edelman returns for this one, he’ll be in line for the most slot targets. 

New Orleans Saints

Takeaways: The Saints may finally get Drew Brees back soon, but head coach Sean Payton said on Wednesday that he still “has a ways to go” … with Taysom Hill under center, the Saints’ receivers have been targeted further downfield than usual … that adds to their value in standard-scoring leagues, but Michael Thomas is no longer the high-end PPR WR1 that he once was … he remains a rock-solid WR1 option, but he definitely hasn’t lived up to his overall WR1 hype.

New York Giants

Takeaways: The Giants didn’t do a whole lot against the Cardinals … they went down early and never really competed for a win last week … as such, the handful of long-range targets that their receivers got makes sense, as they were playing from behind — both Tate and Shepard saw longer-range targets than usual … with the news that Freddie Kitchens will call the plays this Sunday, expect the unexpected with this receivers … if possible, I would avoid starting any of these guys for your playoff matchup.

New York Jets

Takeaways: The Jets were in a smash spot against the Seahawks, yet Sam Darnold threw for only 132 yards and no touchdowns … if you can’t trust a team’s receivers against Seattle, then I don’t know who you can trust them against … Darnold will take on the Rams this week, and they give up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so don’t expect much … I would bench all of your Jets for what should be an ugly game.

Philadelphia Eagles

Takeaways: With Jalen Hurts under center, the Eagles ran more frequently and attempted fewer long-range passes … that’s probably for the best, as Carson Wentz wasn’t connecting downfield very often … Jalen Reagor led the team in receiving yards (46), but Dallas Goedert was close behind (43), and he also led the team in targets (6) … meanwhile, Greg Ward saw lots of mid-range looks, but he only hauled in five of his targets … Goedert and Miles Sanders are the only two passing-game weapons you should feel comfortable starting in the fantasy playoffs … Reagor still has upside, but not nearly as much as he did with Wentz throwing him the ball.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Takeaways: Yikes, Diontae Johnson … the wide receiver got benched last week due to his drops, and he’ll need to get his act together if he wants to stay on the field … I wouldn’t write him off for this week, however, as the Cincinnati Bengals are the perfect opponent to bounce back against … if he can’t, expect James Washington and Chase Claypool to get his downfield work, while JuJu Smith-Schuster should pick up more short-range looks with him gone … Smith-Schuster’s usage as a slot receiver makes him a volume-dependent option; he won’t hit value without a ton of receptions (or a touchdown).

Seattle Seahawks

Takeaways: Yeah, so I think it’s time to admit that Tyler Lockett may not have another big game this year … he hasn’t gone for over 70 yards since his 200-yard, three-score game in Week 7, as D.K. Metcalf has been increasingly consistent and the Seahawks have moved back toward the run … Metcalf is the best asset to use in this offense, and his high-volume, long-distance role gives him WR1 value … David Moore is a decent boom-or-bust flier, but there are better options in higher-volume passing attacks.

San Francisco 49ers

Takeaways: The 49ers gave up a pair of defensive touchdowns to the Washington Football Team, and that pretty much sunk their offensive efforts … with Deeob Samuel sidelined, Brandon Aiyuk flashed his upside … he finished with 10 catches for 119 yards on 16 targets … no other receiver posts fantasy-relevant numbers in this offense … I noted this last week, but Jeff Wilson’s positive air yards suggest that he’s filling the Jerick McKinnon role in the passing game, and he has some fantasy value in that capacity even if Raheem Mostert is healthy enough to play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Takeaways: Tom Brady just has too many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay … he completed only 15 passes to beat the Vikings last week, so there wasn’t much passing-game volume to go around … Mike Evans and Antonio Brown caught most of his passes, but Scotty Miller and Rob Gronkowski had one-catch, one-touchdown days, too … Chris Godwin was the big loser last week, and while I don’t think that’s the start of a trend, it demonstrates that none of these players have high floors.

Tennessee Titans

Takeaways: A.J. Brown caught a flea-flicker pass from Ryan Tannehill for a touchdown last week … he not only led the team in air yards, but he also led the way in receptions (7), targets (9), and receiving yards (112) … it was a disappointing game from Corey Davis, who caught all of his three targets for 34 yards … Davis usually has a higher-volume role, both in terms of air yards and targets, so I expect him to bounce back against the Lions … the Titans refuse to feature any of their tight ends, and the committee workload makes all of them droppable.

Washington Football Team

Takeaways: In a game that saw Alex Smith go down with another injury, Logan Thomas led the team in every receiving statistic: air yards, targets (7), receptions (6), and receiving yards (43) … Washington did not score an offensive touchdown in the victory, relying on their defense to do most of the damage … Thomas, Terry McLaurin, and J.D. McKissic are the only fantasy-relevant pass-catchers in this offense … Thomas and McKissic have more value in PPR formats due to their short-range usage.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.