Best NFL Plays for Week 13 at No House Advantage
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 300-person $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m currently 36-34 on the NFL thus far, which, I’ll admit, could be better. That said, I’m chasing perfection again in Week 13!
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Taysom Hill (NO): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (S)
This one should be a lock. In his two starts this year, Hill is yet to throw a touchdown pass. Of course, he’s run for four of them, so he’s still a threat to score, but he doesn’t seem likely to score through the air.
Hill has attempted only 57 passes in his career (he also has two playoff passing attempts) but hasn’t yet thrown a touchdown pass. Not one. He could throw for his first this week, but you’re not betting on him not to throw his first-ever touchdown — you’re betting on him not to throw his first two.
Alvin Kamara (NO): UNDER 3.5 Receptions (S)
Let’s stack Hill’s under with a Kamara under. The talented receiving back has caught just one pass in Hill’s two starts, so his season-long rate of 6.2 receptions per game doesn’t intimidate me that much. He needs to catch four passes for this line to cash, and he’s been targeted just three times by Hill.
The Saints could start using Hill and Kamara differently, of course, but this line should be pretty safe.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Julio Jones (ATL): UNDER 5.5 Receptions (S)
It looks like Julio Jones will play this Sunday, but I doubt that he’ll be 100%, and there’s always a risk that he re-aggravates his hamstring injury at some point during the game. As a result, I feel comfortable playing this under if he’s active.
Even if Jones were a full-go for this one, the Falcons might not get to attempt as many passes as they usually do. The Saints’ run-first offense will drain the clock as it did in Week 11, which resulted in Matt Ryan attempting only 37 passes (and completing just 19). Back then, only Russell Gage caught more than six passes; neither Jones nor Calvin Ridley would’ve cleared this total.
Oh, and the last time these teams played, Janoris Jenkins covered Ridley. He’s out this week, so expect much of the limited passing volume to go in Ridley’s direction with Marshon Lattimore covering Jones.
Derrick Henry (TEN): OVER 99.5 Rushing Yards
It’s December, and that means it’s Derrick Henry SZN. The big-bodied bruiser totaled 594 yards and four scores in November alone, hitting the century mark in four of five games. Henry only failed to run for 100-plus yards against the Bears. However, the Titans didn’t need him to do a whole lot in that game, as Chicago didn’t score their first points until the fourth quarter!
The Titans are 5.5-point favorites over the Browns this week, and I expect them to lean on Henry to generate rushing yards against a team that gives up 108.2 rushing yards per game.
David Montgomery (CHI): OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards
I don’t trust Montgomery that much, but I think it’s safe to project him for at least 51 yards against the Lions. Their defense gives up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (133.4), and Montgomery doesn’t even need to clear his average rushing yards per game (57.5) for the over to cash.
Montgomery has cleared this line in exactly half of his games this season. He even did so against Detroit back in Week 1, too, when he ran for 64 yards on just 13 carries. If he can run for 4.92 yards per carry again this weekend, he’ll need just over 10 of them to cash the over, and he’s gotten at least that amount in 80% of his games this year.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Matt Ryan (ATL): OVER 0.5 Interceptions (S)
This play would’ve been higher if Janoris Jenkins were active, as Jackrabbit was responsible for one of Ryan’s two Week 11 picks (Marcus Williams caught the other one). That said, the Saints’ secondary has averaged 1.1 interceptions per game, the third-most in the league, while Ryan has averaged 0.7 per game. The Boston College product has thrown at least one pick in all but four of his games this year, and the Saints have picked him off at least once in every matchup since September 2018.
Baker Mayfield (CLE): OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Sure, Mayfield hasn’t thrown a pick in four games. Three of them came in terrible weather, so not even Mayfield’s receivers could hold onto the ball. He probably won’t keep that streak alive against the Titans, as they have averaged one pick per game this season. Meanwhile, Mayfield managed to throw picks in five of his first seven games this year, and he’s thrown a pick in 63% of his career appearances. He even threw three picks when he faced the Titans last year, only one of which went to a player no longer on Tennessee’s roster.
Philip Rivers (IND): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
This pick is somewhat risky. Rivers has thrown a pick in seven of his 11 games to this point, which isn’t great, and he’s averaged 0.8 per game. That said, this play is all about the matchup. Houston’s defense has picked off three passes all year, and defense end J.J. Watt was responsible for one of those. Rivers could always choke and throw a pick here, but I expect the Colts to emphasize their rushing game against the league’s second-worst rushing defense in terms of yards per game, which reduces the risk of investing in this line.
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