The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 300-person $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m currently 39-39 on the NFL thus far, which, I’ll admit, should be better. It would’ve been, too, if Taysom Hill hadn’t scored his first two passing touchdowns in the same week. That said, I’m chasing perfection again in Week 14!
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Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Kirk Cousins (MIN): OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Sorry, Vikings fans, but Cousins ranks third in interceptions thrown (12), while the Buccaneers rank third in passes intercepted. Cousins has thrown at least one pick in all but five games this season, but three of his pick-free games came when the Vikings could ride Dalvin Cook to victory against poor rushing defenses (see: Texans, Packers, Lions), and his only other pick-free games came against teams that rank bottom-four in interceptions (see: Panthers, Cowboys).
Cousins isn’t in such a spot this week. Not only does Tampa Bay excel at picking off passes, but the team has also allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs (646) by a 150-yard margin. Also, the Vikings are listed as 6.5-point underdogs, so it’s very likely that Cousins will have to throw frequently to keep the Vikings in contention. I will be stunned if Cousins manages not to throw a pick this week.
Patrick Mahomes (KC): UNDER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
It might be controversial to bet against the league’s best quarterback, but it shouldn’t be this week. Mahomes has only thrown for three-plus scores in five of his 12 games this year (41.7%), and he’ll face the Dolphins here, who give up just 1.17 passing touchdowns per game — the second-fewest in the league.
Sure, Mahomes is a cheat code. But even he will struggle to score against Miami, especially since they give up the second-fewest points per game (17.7). Mahomes probably won’t drop three touchdowns against this rock-solid secondary.
David Montgomery (CHI): OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards
Montgomery’s over hit last week against the Lions, and I’ll side with it again for his matchup with the Texans. Houston gives up the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (139.8), and even though Montgomery isn’t the greatest talent, he gets the volume to clear the over. He ranks 10th in total rushing attempts (159).
To quickly crunch some numbers, Houston’s defense allows 5.2 yards per carry to opposing backs, while Montgomery gains 4.1 yards per carry. Split the difference (4.65), and Montgomery will need 13 carries to clear this total. He averages 14.5 per game, a rate that’s jumped to 15.8 over the last four weeks. This over is a safe one to feature high in your lineup.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Mike Glennon (JAC): OVER 229.5 Passing Yards
Call me crazy, but Glennon should sail over this total against the Titans. Not only has he thrown for more yards in both of his starts for the Jaguars (Week 12: 235; Week 13: 280), but the Titans also give up the fifth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (283.4). Gardner Minshew even threw for 339 yards against them in Week 2!
With the Jaguars set as 7.5-point underdogs, Glennon should be in for a pass-heavy day. My only concern with this line is that a poor start could lead Jacksonville to bench Glennon for Minshew, but the team’s failure to bench Jake Luton against the Steelers gives me faith that they won’t bench Glennon mid-game.
Brandin Cooks (HOU): OVER 5.5 Receptions
This line feels a little low, but after Cooks’ disappointing first game without Will Fuller, I can understand why it’s set at 5.5. Fortunately, Cooks won’t have to face off with Xavier Rhodes again, and he’s a safe bet to rebound against the Bears. Cooks is averaging 5.9 receptions per game since Bill O’Brien’s firing, which includes a bunch of matchups that Cooks played alongside Fuller, so this line would even have some appeal if Fuller were still around.
The Texans should have to throw frequently to beat the Bears. Even though they’re 1.5-point favorites, they won’t have running back David Johnson this week. Johnson’s absence is why I’m confident about this line despite the fact the Bears give up the fourth-fewest receptions per game to opposing wideouts (11.3).
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Mitch Trubisky (CHI): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
No, I don’t think Trubisky is an accurate passer. He’s thrown five picks in as many starts this season, and he’s only gone pick-free against one team: the Detroit Lions. That said, I’m cautiously optimistic about him this week.
The Texans have picked off three passes all season, and they’re tied with the Eagles for the NFL’s fewest. J.J. Watt was responsible for one of those picks, the second of his career and his first since 2014, so it feels flukish. For as little faith I have in Trubisky, I have even less in Houston’s secondary.
Daniel Jones (NYG): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jones will be back under center for New York this week, and the team has been on a tear recently, as they’ve won their last four games. One common denominator in all four victories? Fewer than two passing touchdowns. Jones hasn’t thrown for multiple scores since Week 8, and he’s done so just three times all season.
The sophomore quarterback has more starts without a passing touchdown (6) than with any (5). He last threw for a touchdown in Week 9, and since the Cardinals give up the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns per game (1.58), I feel comfortable about playing the under here.
DeVante Parker (MIA): OVER 4.5 Receptions
This line feels like it’s set one reception too low. Parker has averaged 9.5 targets and 5.0 receptions per game since the Dolphins lost Preston Williams, and he’s finished with five-plus catches in half of his games this season.
The Dolphins are projected to be playing from behind this week, as they’re touchdown underdogs against the Chiefs, which should lead Tagovailoa to look in Parker’s direction often. My main concern with this line is that the Chiefs have given up the third-fewest receptions per game to opposing wideouts (11.17), so that’s why I’m leaving it toward the bottom of this week’s play. The pick has the probable game script and player averages in its favor; it only lacks the matchup to make it a higher-priority option.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
