The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 300-person $5,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m currently 43-42 on the NFL thus far, and I’m looking to expand my lead over .500 this week.
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Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Cam Newton (NE): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Not many lines are perfect on the year, but this one is. Newton has thrown five touchdowns all season while running for 11 of them, so passing near the goal line doesn’t seem to be in the cards for him. ProFootballReference has only recorded 16 targets from inside the 10-yard line for New England (1.23 per game).
Newton didn’t throw a single touchdown pass against the Dolphins in Week 1. I don’t expect him to get his first two-score performance in the passing department against their defense, which has given up the second-fewest passing touchdowns (16) to quarterbacks all year.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF): OVER 4.5 Receptions
Like Newton’s line, I also see this play as a lock. Neither George Kittle nor Deebo Samuel will suit up for this one, which makes Aiyuk the de-facto best option. He caught 10 passes after Samuel went down in last week’s game, and he’s averaged 5.5 catches in the four games that Samuel has missed this year. His worst performance came in Week 2, which was his first career NFL game. If we exclude that performance, he’d be averaging 6.7 catches per game without Samuel.
The 49ers will face the Dallas Cowboys this week. Their defense gives up the ninth-fewest receptions per game to opposing wideouts (likely because they struggle so much against the run), but that still equates to 12.3 catches per game.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Deshaun Watson (HOU): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (S)
I’m not very optimistic about Watson and the Texans this week. Sure, they almost toppled the Colts the last time they faced off, but that was with a playoff spot still on the line. They’re now out, and they’ve been out for two weeks. Interim head coach Romeo Crennel is just trying to guide this limping team to the end of the season.
Watson has thrown a single touchdown pass in the last two weeks. Although he’s averaging 1.9 per game, he’s thrown or one or fewer scores three times in his last five appearances. The Texans just aren’t the same team without Will Fuller and Randall Cobb around, and I don’t expect the Texans to do much against Indianapolis’ rock-solid defense. They have given up the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns this season (17), too, and Watson failed to throw for a score against them in Week 13.
Brandin Cooks (HOU): UNDER 5.5 Receptions (S)
It might seem odd to bet against Cooks with so many of Houston’s other pass-catchers suspended or hurt, but Cooks will draw coverage from Xavier Rhodes this week, and that’s enough for me to fade him in the receptions department.
When Cooks faced Rhodes two weeks ago, he caught five passes on eight targets for 65 yards. Wide receivers Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen both out-produced him by going 9-8-141 and 7-5-101, respectively. Expect Watson to once again look their way at Cooks’ expense.
Philip Rivers (IND): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (S)
I’ll add one less anti-Houston play to this stack. The Texans have intercepted just three passes all season, and one of those picks came from lineman J.J. Watt. It’s never a good sign when your defensive line has half as many picks as your secondary.
Rivers isn’t a great quarterback to bet on here, but this line cashed the last time these teams faced off in Week 13, and Mitch Trubisky’s no-picks line also cashed last week. A Houston defensive back hasn’t picked off a pass since Week 9 at this point, and with their season over, I don’t expect them to buck the trend in Week 15.
Matt Ryan (ATL): OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Ryan has thrown an interception in every game he’s played without Julio Jones this year. He’s totaled 11 picks, the fifth-most in the league, and a whopping six came in his four games without Jones. He threw one pick each against the Bears, Panthers, and Raiders — two of which rank bottom-six in total interceptions thrown — and three against the Chargers last week.
The Falcons have a home game against the Buccaneers this week, and Tampa Bay ranks sixth in total picks (14). Expect Ryan to keep turning the ball over without his security blanket.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Justin Jefferson (MIN): OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards
The Bears may not have CB2 Jaylon Johnson this week. He’s listed as questionable, but he failed to practice at all in advance of this one. If he does suit up, he may be limited, and that’s good news for Jefferson.
To be fair, Johnson didn’t do much against Jefferson the last time they faced off. With Kyle Fuller on Adam Thielen, Kirk Cousins looked Jefferson’s way frequently, and he ended the day with eight catches for 135 yards — nearly double this line. He should be in line for similar production here.
Raheem Mostert (SF): OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards
Mostert has been cleared to play this week, and he’ll have an easy matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. They have given up the second-most rushing yards per game to the position (132.8), which puts Mostert in an excellent spot even if he has to split work with Jeff Wilson.
Since his return from injured reserve in Week 12, Mostert has averaged 50 yards per game in his three appearances, clearing this over just once. One of his misses came against the league’s seventh-best defensive front at controlling running backs, the Los Angeles Rams; the other came in a tough loss to the Buffalo Bills.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
