DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 13 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.
Mike Glennon (JAC) at MIN $6,800 (+$600)
A rather impressive performance in his first start of the year, Glennon delivered sensational value for his price with 18 FD points. The Browns were missing a healthy chunk of starters on defense, however, so I wouldn’t be too crazy about his matchup this week. The Vikings do have a softer secondary but what they lack in pass defense they make up for in slow-paced games. Minnesota plays at the third-slowest rate in the league and unlike the Browns last week, they are not missing a slew of starters. With a week of film to study and defense that has turned around the second half of the season, Glennon isn’t much more than a risky desperation play at your quarterback slot.
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs NE $7,900 (-$500)
Having Austin Ekeler back is a major plus for Herbert’s outlook. He drops in price this week however due to a tougher than average matchup against the Patriots, who have come on very strong lately. They just held Kyler Murray under 10 points last week, making him a riskier play. I’d opt for similarly priced Ryan Tannehill or Taysom Hill this week instead.
Alvin Kamara (NO) at ATL $7,500 (-$1,100)
Noted as a major fade last week, Kamara has now fallen into the second tier of running back options. The ascendance of Latavius Murray isn’t helping anything either. Making matters even worse still, the Falcons defense has been surprisingly stout lately and just held the Raiders to six points. Hill will continue to all but erase any value to be had from Kamara it seems until Brees takes back control.
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs CLE $10,000 (+$1,700)
A monster performance from Henry has instantly catapulted him back into top-option territory where he belongs. This week, they 5.5 point favorites against the Browns who recently gave up a solid performance to James Robinson. However, Robinson’s outing was the best performance they have allowed in the entire season. Both teams also rank 15th or slower in pace of play with heavy rushing attacks, implying this could be a low-snap count game. Browns will return healthy players and are normally quite good against running backs. There is double recency bias happening here with the Browns’ fluky performance against Robinson and Henry’s massive performance. He’s always a solid play, but I just don’t think he’s worth the high price tag this week.
AJ Brown (TEN) vs CLE $8,200 (+$700)
Browns have allowed the 10th-most points to wide receivers yet the 7th-fewest to running backs this year. For very similar reasons listed in Henry’s blurb above is why I’m in on Brown this week. Some recent weather issues in Cleveland have skewed their normally porous pass defense as it has been extremely windy and either wet or cold for what seems like over a month. The Vegas line has routinely moved down for Cleveland home games but they travel to Tennessee this week. Their defense gets back to their old ways, which means a better game for Brown and company.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) at MIA $6,600 (-$300)
Miami hasn’t allowed a 20-point receiver in three straight weeks, which is a rare form in this league. The loss of Burrow is devastating for Boyd’s value and the Bengals haven’t scored over 17 points in three straight weeks as well. This game also has the lowest spread of the week and the Bengals have the lowest implied total of the week. All of this is very dismal for Boyd’s outlook. On the bright side, he is extremely cheap and might see more targets as the low-aDOT option. Still, you should likely look elsewhere this week.
Evan Engram (NYG) $6,000 at SEA (+$400)
The good news: no team has allowed more passing yards than the Seahawks. The bad news: they are allowing the third-fewest targets to tight ends. This is likely corresponding to the newly acquired safety Jamal Adams, which will likely see plenty of Engram this week. As 10-point underdogs, however, it seems likely the Giants will air the ball out plenty. I’d bite on chasing the upside here as 6-grand is pretty cheap for an upper-level option in Engram. The Giants seem to enjoy finding ways to get him the ball no matter what as evidenced by his jet sweep and hand-off action this season.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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