Skip to main content

DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 16 (2020 Fantasy Football)

DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 16 (2020 Fantasy Football)

This week, there’s no featured favorite stack. Instead, I offer a couple of favorite studs, a favorite mid-tier option, and a favorite value play.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool partner-arrow

Favorite Studs

Travis Kelce (TE – KC): $8,500 vs. Falcons
For the season, Kelce sits third with 94.1 receiving yards per game and ranks fifth in receptions per game (7.0). The next closest receiver in both marks is Darren Waller at 69.1 receiving yards per game and 6.6 receptions per game. The gap in receptions per game is small, but the yardage gap is massive. Further, Waller isn’t on this slate since he’s playing Saturday. The point being, Kelce is leaps and bounds above his peers at the tight end position.

The defending Super Bowl Champions are sizable 10.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under total of 54 points, according to the consensus line at BettingPros, leaving them with a gaudy implied total of 32.25 points. Kelce’s my favorite piece of exposure to that robust implied total due largely to his position. However, my current favorite roster is a double-tight end build, so he’s not featured here only because of being the top tight end.

David Montgomery (RB – CHI): $7,700 at Jaguars
The Jaguars are now in the driver’s seat for the No.1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Obviously, the players on the Jaguars aren’t going to intentionally tank, they have to play for their own futures. However, their dubious distinction of being the team likely to pick first does speak to how putrid they’ve played.

The 146.5 rushing yards per game they’ve coughed up to the opposition this season is the third-highest mark, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Running backs have steamrolled them for 4.54 yards per carry this year, and Montgomery’s been playing like a man on fire of late. He’s reached triple-digit rushing yards in three of his last four games and rumbled for 72 rushing yards, a pair of scores, and caught four passes for 39 receiving yards in the outlier contest during his most recent four-game stretch. Speaking of his receptions, he’s secured 13 grabs for 137 receiving yards during that span.

Listen, I was not a Montgomery fan entering the year. He delivered some clunkers and mediocre showings in the early and middle portions of the year, but it’s important to be willing to reevaluate a player — namely a young one, which Montgomery is as a second-year back. I’m late to the bandwagon, but I’m all aboard for his cushy matchup with a likely favorable game script with the Bears favored by 7.5 points.

Favorite Mid-Tier Play

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): $6,600 vs. Panthers
At the time of writing (late Wednesday night), Gibson’s status is unclear for Sunday. He’s missed back-to-back games after exiting early in Week 13 with a turf toe injury, but he was listed as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. If he’s able to ramp up his activity and play Sunday, I’m willing to roll the dice on him avoiding a setback while potentially coming in at a lower rostership percentage due to others steering clear of a back potentially playing at less than 100%. Yes, that means taking on some risk, but as Bruce Arians says, “no risk it, no biscuit.”

Gibson would be returning for a mouthwatering matchup if he gets the green light this week. The Panthers rank in just the middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game at 119.4, but that’s almost certainly largely a product of their lack of exposure to running quarterbacks since they share the NFC South division with a trio of statuesque signal-callers. Looking at running backs specifically, they’ve coughed up the ninth-most rushing yards to them at a tantalizing 4.82 yards per carry. They’ve also been giving through the air to the position, tying for the fifth-most receptions (82) surrendered to running backs this year.

For Gibson’s part, he’s twice rushed for more than 100 yards and eclipsed 90 rushing yards once, and all three of those efforts have come in his last five healthy games — tossing his injury-abbreviated contest against the Steelers. His receiving game work has been sporadic with J.D. McKissic the preferred passing-game option, but he’s caught three or more passes in seven of his last nine healthy games. Washington’s currently a 2.5-point favorite, so Gibson should be treated to at least a neutral game script and possibly a favorable one this week if he’s back. Continue to monitor his status, and join me in using him in GPPs as a high-ceiling option if he is active. If he’s inactive for Washington’s 4:05 PM ET contest and they keep that info tight to the vest during the earlier games, gamers can take solace in knowing McKissic’s an available pivot who’s $200 cheaper than Gibson.

Favorite Value Play

Chad Hansen (WR – HOU): $4,400 vs. Bengals
Houston’s injury-depleted receiving corps has opened the door for Hansen to strut his stuff, and strut his stuff he has. The former fourth-round pick of the Jets back in the 2017 NFL Draft had played in 15 games his rookie season, but he hadn’t played in another NFL regular-season game since then before being elevated from Houston’s practice squad for Week 13. Over the last three weeks, he’s balled out.

Hansen’s totaled at least 55 receiving yards in all three games with a touchdown in the last game and a 5-101-0 showing in Week 13 sandwiching a solid if unspectacular 7-56-0 line in Week 14. Beyond the box score numbers, his playing time and usage have been promising as well. Hansen’s played 92%, 80%, and 91% of Houston’s offensive snaps over the last three weeks, per Pro-Football-Reference. More importantly, however, is his absurd 100% route participation percentage, according to PlayerProfiler.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Hansen’s been targeted 17 times, 16 of those passes have been deemed catchable, and he’s reeled in 14 grabs with zero drops. Also of note, he’s been used as a vertical option with an average depth of target of 12.1 yards downfield. His vertical usage could be especially useful against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati’s tied with four other clubs for the highest average explosive pass rate allowed this year at 10%, per Sharp Football Stats. Hansen won’t need a hefty volume of targets to help daily rosters if he can add to Cincinnati’s big passing play woes this week by reeling in a long reception or two.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool partner-arrow


SubscribeApple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

More Articles

2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Tight End Rookie Rankings

2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Tight End Rookie Rankings

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 2 min read
2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Wide Receiver Rookie Rankings

2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Wide Receiver Rookie Rankings

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 3 min read
2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Running Back Rookie Rankings

2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Running Back Rookie Rankings

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 3 min read
2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Quarterback Rookie Rankings

2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Quarterback Rookie Rankings

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 2 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Tight End Rookie Rankings

Next Up - 2024 NFL Draft Prospects: Tight End Rookie Rankings

Next Article