Last week was really bizarre. Jarvis Landry and Wayne Gallman were fantastic as some of our cheaper options while more reliable guys like Kyler Murray and Darren Waller struggled in spectacular matchups. That’s just the nature of DFS though and it’s truly amazing how unpredictable this racket can be at times. In any case, we’re back at it with our Week 13 picks here!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
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Monday Slate
This could get weird. We have had a ton of postponements recently and it’s hard to say what games will be played on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday. We’re going to go ahead and focus on the Pittsburgh-Washington matchup and the San Francisco-Buffalo games. Baltimore and Dallas are scheduled for Tuesday but we’re going to stay away since it won’t be a part of this slate. With that in mind, let’s start with the Steelers game.
The best play in this matchup is whoever starts at running back for Pittsburgh. That could be James Conner if he returns or possibly Benny Snell. All of the pass-catchers are obviously in play too, with Diontae Johnson looking like the best pick of the three. Some good values include J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Anthony McFarland, and Chris Boswell.
The other Monday game gives us the 49ers hosting the Bills. This is a tough one to figure out, with the Bills offense struggling and the 49ers defense starting to put things together. My favorite play is actually Raheem Mostert, with Stefon Diggs as a close second. It’s almost impossible to trust anyone in Buffalo’s running attack, with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss struggling. Some of the good values in this game include Cole Beasley, Deebo Samuel, and Jordan Reed.
Sunday Slate
Quarterback of the Week
Justin Herbert (LAC): $6,900 vs. NE
How amazing has this rookie been for fantasy purposes this season? What’s really impressive about this kid is his consistency, scoring at least 20 DraftKings points in all 10 games played this season. That has his average at 26 DK points per game which ranks third on this slate. That looks even better when you see that he’s nearly $1,000 cheaper than Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray, who have been struggling mightily recently. The matchup against New England is the icing on the cake though, with the Patriots surrendering the second-most yards per attempt and third-most yards per completion this season.
Cash Game Running Back
Chris Carson (SEA): $6,300 vs. NYG
It feels strange to recommend a guy who played less than 40 percent of the team’s snaps last week but this is a great spot for Carson. That was surely a case of easing Carson back in after missing a few weeks and we fully expect him to get back up to 60 percent of the snaps here. If he does that, Carson remains one of the best values of the day at $6,300. Let’s start by talking about Carson, dropping 14 DK points on Monday Night and raising his season average to 17 fantasy points per game. That average is actually lowered by the game he got injured, with Carson scoring at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his first five games. This matchup isn’t too shabby either, with the Giants owning a 25th OPRK against opposing running backs this season.
GPP Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI): $5,500 vs. DET
Anytime you recommend a Chicago player, it’s a GPP play. This team is just so risky because of their poor play but this is a great opportunity for Montgomery to succeed. The thing that really makes him enticing is this matchup, with Detroit surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs. That’s a great sign for a player who’s coming off a season-best 28.3 DK points in Week 12. Montgomery is also one of the only backs in the NFL with a snap share above 80 percent since Week 4 and that alone should force him into production in such a tasty matchup.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks (HOU): $5,600 vs. IND
With Will Fuller now sitting at home because of a suspension, Cooks has found himself as Deshaun Watson‘s top target. That takes out over 20 percent of the team’s targets, 25 percent of the team’s touchdowns, and more than 30 percent of the team’s air yards. Cooks will surely take on a good amount of that, even though he’s been special himself since a slow start. Since posting a big fat zero in Week 4, Cooks has at least 9.9 DK points in every game since averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s the production of a $7K wide receiver and we’re not worried about an Indy defense that’s hit a regression wall the last few weeks.
GPP Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker (MIA): $6,400 vs. CIN
All pass-catchers struggle with a quarterback like Tua but the reinsertion of Ryan Fitzpatrick into the starting lineup makes Parker one of the top options in the NFL. FitzMagic has always been known to feed his top receiver and 14 targets last week shows just how much these two love one another. If you look at the eight games that Fitz has started this season, Parker is averaging 7.9 targets per game, en route to 15.1 DraftKings points per outing. That makes him a solid value at just $6,400 and we haven’t even discussed this fantastic matchup. Not only does Cincy own a 23rd OPRK against opposing wide receivers, but they also rank 26th in yards per completion allowed as well. If Tua does return, go ahead and ride Sterling Shepard at $5,300 against a bad Seahawks secondary.
Tight End of the Week
Hunter Henry (LAC): $4,800 vs. NE
If we like Herbert, we have to like Henry. The talented tight end has been his second favorite target behind Keenan Allen but Henry is the far better value. What we like about Henry is his floor, collecting at least four catches in five-straight games, providing at least 5.3 DK points in every game this year. That might not sound like anything special but it’s a great floor considering how bad the tight end position has been. He’s been getting better as the season develops too, scoring at least 13 DraftKings points in each of his last three fixtures. Don’t forget about how bad this Patriots secondary can be at times too, which was emphasized in the Herbert write-up above.
D/ST of the Week
Seattle Seahawks: $3,300 vs. NYG
It feels weird to recommend one of the worst defenses in football but this has been a different unit recently. After being ranked near the bottom of nearly every defensive statistic through nine weeks, Seattle’s defense has been way better the last three. That directly correlates with the Carlos Dunlap trade, with the Pro Bowler changing the dynamic of this defense. In those three outings, Seattle is allowing just 20 points per game while tallying 12 sacks in total. That’s obviously one of the best marks in football and we absolutely love that against a bad Giants offense that will likely be without their starting quarterback and running back. That’s why the Seahawks enter this matchup as a 10.5-point favorite, only adding to their value.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
