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DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 16 Saturday Slate (12/26)

DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 16 Saturday Slate (12/26)

In Week 16, we’re treated to another Saturday with NFL action. In fact, this week there’s a tripleheader instead of the doubleheader Week 15 provided fans. An extra game means a larger player pool. Having said that, my preference for smaller slates is to play in GPPs, and that will play out in the suggested players below.

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Favorite Stud

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI): $8,300 vs. 49ers
Hopkins’ first season with the Cardinals has been a success, to put it mildly. He ranks third in target share at 29.0% and 12th in intended air yards this year, according to Sports Info Solutions. The stud veteran wideout has parlayed his hefty usage into elite production, too, ranking third in receptions per game (7.4) and second in receiving yards per game (94.6) while securing six receiving touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference. There’s no reason to overthink slotting the top wideout on this slate into your cash games lineups, and his upside makes him my top stud in GPPs as well.

Favorite Value Play

Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF): $4,000 at Cardinals
With Ronald Jones looking on the doubtful side of returning this week, it’s a likely chalk week for Leonard Fournette in his mouthwatering matchup with the Lions. However, my preference is to fade the inefficient former Jaguar in favor of his teammates making up a high-powered passing attack. I’m also not totally enamored with Josh Jacobs. There is a pricier — at least relatively speaking for the options at running back on this slate — back who I do like as part of a forthcoming stack, but my lack of infatuation with the position on this slate leads me to McKinnon as a contrarian option.

Raheem Mostert is back on IR, and that opens the door to Jeff Wilson toting the rock. However, it also opens the door to McKinnon’s inclusion in the offense as the pass-catching option out of the backfield. The 49ers are five-point underdogs this week, according to the consensus line at BettingPros. If things get a little farther off the rails for the 49ers and they’re stuck in catch-up mode most of the game, McKinnon could be somewhat active in the passing game with Deebo Samuel out and George Kittle having rust to potentially shake off if he returns from his lengthy absence with a foot fracture.

Favorite Stack

Are there others in this contest who I’m interested in including in a stack? Yes, there are, namely Marvin Jones Jr. and T.J. Hockenson. However, it’s the quartet above featuring a three-man Buccaneers stack and Swift running it back the other way I’m most enamored with.

Working backward, the Buccaneers are the stoutest run defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 77.8 rushing yards per game, and the next closest team, the Rams, has yielded 94.1 yards per game on the ground. It’s almost certainly going to be tough sledding for Swift on the ground, but things should come much easier for him through the air.

The 90 receptions Tampa Bay’s coughed up to running backs this season is the most in the NFL, per Pro-Football-Reference. Additionally, Detroit might be stuck leaning on their passing attack heavily as 9.5-point underdogs. No problem for the rookie running back. In 11 games played this year, Swift’s averaged 3.5 receptions for 28.7 receiving yards per game and has caught three or more passes in 10 contests.

With the Buccaneers serving as massive 9.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under total of 53.5 points, they’re left with a juicy implied total of 31.5 points. The sizable spread is likely to lead to a chalk Fournette, which I addressed above. However, Detroit’s lack of a pass rush should allow Brady to rip them apart.

To that end, the Lions have the third-lowest pressure percentage this year at 17.4%, according to Pro-Football-Reference. In the high likelihood of Brady having plenty of time to deliver the ball down the field, give me the combo of Evans and Gronk as his top stack partners.

Among pass-catchers targeted at least 60 times this year, Evans’ average depth of target of 11.8 yards downfield is 22nd deepest. Gronk has also been used as a vertical option with an average depth of target of 10.3 yards downfield. Their usage should play well against a Lions defense that’s tied for the highest average explosive pass rate allowed this year at 10%, per Sharp Football Stats. Further, Evans and Gronk have commanded the first and second-highest red zone target totals on the team with 17 and 13, respectively, according to Lineups. Their combination of deep-ball and red-zone usage is ceiling inflating and plays perfectly in GPPs — especially in this matchup.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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