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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 13 (2020)

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 13 (2020)

As both the NFL and our world continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, football can be a healthy distraction, and daily fantasy sport (DFS) sites offer a fun way to get skin in the game. Let’s break down the Week 13 slate at DraftKings.

If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.

Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!

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Last Week’s Picks

Quarterback
Mike Glennon (JAC): 18 points (3.91x)

Running Back
Brian Hill (ATL): 5.5 points (1.37x) 
James White (NE): 14.7 points (3.27x)

Wide Receivers
Nelson Agholor (LV): 10.4 points (2.12x)
Breshad Perriman (NYJ): 11.9 points (2.83x)

Tight Ends
Jordan Reed (SF): 3.8 points (1.05x)

Pretty solid week! Glennon ended up being the best call of the bunch, while White and the receivers played decently. I was a bit disappointed with Hill, who looked almost as inefficient as he did when starting last year. It’ll be hard to trust him again, especially since Ito Smith ended up getting so much of the work.

This Week’s Value Plays 

Quarterback

Mike Glennon (JAC): $4,800 at MIN
After nearly beating the Browns, Glennon will start for the Jaguars again this Sunday. He proved to be a smart start around this price point last week, and I’m going to trust him again here. That’s because the Minnesota Vikings give up the 13th-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to quarterbacks (20.6) — it’s not a ton, but he only needs to score 14.4 DK points to hit value. Minnesota’s cornerbacks have played a bit better of late, but they still aren’t great, and Andy Dalton threw three touchdowns against them in Week 11. This game is also projected for the second-most total points (52.5) this week, and it’s a must-target as a result.

Honorable mention: Daniel Jones (NYG): $5,500 at SEA.

Running Back

David Montgomery (CHI): $5,500 vs. DET
This pick should be safe. Montgomery has the 12th-most rushing attempts in the league. He gets 17.7 touches per game, 3.5 of which are receptions, so he has a stable floor in DraftKings’ PPR scoring system. While he’s only scored one rushing touchdown on the year, he also has two receiving touchdowns, and he has 75% of Chicago’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. His opponent, the Detroit Lions, give up the most DKPPG to running backs (33.8). He’ll need 16.5 points to hit value this week, but I’m confident enough in this matchup to start him.

Frank Gore (NYJ): $4,400 vs. LV
The Jets are not a good football team. That said, Frank Gore is averaging 13.4 DKPPG over the last two weeks, which is right around what he needs to hit value (13.2). The injury to La’Mical Perine has freed up lots of work for Gore, as he’s gotten 17 touches per game over that span. That’s all great, but the matchup is what makes Gore a slam-dunk start here. The Raiders give up the fourth-most DKPPG to running backs (28.4), and even though the Jets will probably fall behind early, that has never deterred Adam Gase from feeding Gore the ball.

Honorable mention: Wayne Gallman (NYG): $5,600 at SEA.

Wide Receiver

Sterling Shepard (NYG): $5,300 at SEA
You may have noticed that both of my honorable mentions are on the New York Giants. I expect the Giants to look pretty good against Seattle’s week defense, and Shepard should be a prime beneficiary. Since returning from injury, Shepard has averaged 8.0 targets per game, and he’s gotten exactly that number in three of his games. While he’s been averaging less than 10 yards per catch, he has enough receptions to average 13.9 DKPPG through that span. Since the Seattle Seahawks give up the most DKPPG to wideouts by a substantial margin, Shepard should easily post above-average numbers, allowing him to hit value at his low-end price point.

Keelan Cole (JAC): $3,800 at MIN
I think stacking Glennon with one of his receivers could be smart. That said, it’s unclear which receiver is the best one to target. D.J. Chark and Chris Conley were both limited in practice this Wednesday after sitting out Week 12, and while I expect them to play, Cole should remain a strategic option. Not only does he come with a low-end salary, but he also ranks second on the team in targets (60), trailing only Chark. He averages 3.5 receptions per game, which leaves something to be desired, but the matchup with the Vikings should be good for him. That’s because they give up the third-most DKPPG to wideouts. While I think Cole will have value even if Chark and Conley play, he’s obviously a much better pick if at least one of them doesn’t.

Honorable mention: Darius Slayton (NYG): $4,600 at SEA.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki (MIA): $4,200 vs. CIN
How terrible is the tight end market? Only four of them don’t qualify as “value plays” this week: Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, and Hunter Henry. The first three are all under $5,000, so if you’ve got a little bit of breathing room in your salary cap, they could be smart alternatives. That said, if you must save money at the position, Gesicki is a fantastic option to target. Miami is now without their slot receiver (Isaiah Ford) and one of their perimeter receivers (Preston Williams), and that’s made Gesicki the clear-cut second read. He’s earned exactly five targets in each of his last three games, and he’s a solid volume-based play at a thin position. He’ll need a touchdown to hit value here, but since the Bengals have given up the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the position and the fifth-most DKPPG (15.6), I think he has a good shot.

Honorable mention: If Irv Smith continues to miss time, consider Kyle Rudolph (MIN): $3,400 vs. JAC.

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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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