It’s Week 13, and we’re right on the cusp of the redraft playoffs. If your team has locked up a playoff spot and is competing for a championship, congratulations! If not, daily fantasy sites can help you get your fantasy fix as you wait for next season.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Check out our full Projected Roster % Report here 
Quarterback
We have very little consensus at quarterback this week. The most popular play, Baker Mayfield, will take on the Tennessee Titans after tossing a pair of touchdowns in Jacksonville last week. While he’s priced at a low-end $5,300, that’s probably because Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the focal points of this offense, and he’s a risky option even against the defense that gives up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to quarterbacks (22.8).
There’s a laundry list of options behind Mayfield: Russell Wilson, Colt McCoy, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Aaron Rodgers, and Taysom Hill. Of these options, I’m least excited about Wilson.
Wilson is the highest-priced in the 10-20% range, and I don’t get the appeal of using him in Week 13. Not only have the Seahawks been shifting back toward their running game, but the Giants also field the sixth-best defense against opposing quarterbacks, as they give up only 17.5 DKPPG.
That said, I am partial to his opponent, Colt McCoy. The Seahawks give up a league-high 27.1 DKPPG to quarterbacks, and McCoy will just need to make a handful of splash plays to hit value. With weapons like Darius Slayton and Evan Engram, I think that’s certainly within his range of outcomes, and he doesn’t need a ton of points to hit value at his price point.
However, if you’re truly bargain hunting at quarterback, I would also consider Mike Glennon. He costs as much as McCoy, but he’s got a similarly-vulnerable opponent (Minnesota), and he’ll have D.J. Chark to throw to this week.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
We actually have some players who are close to chalk this week. But before I begin, you should expect Devontae Booker to rocket up the rostership rankings heading into Sunday, as Josh Jacobs will have to sit this one out. I don’t know if he’ll be chalk, but he’ll be close to it, and you should treat him accordingly — bet on him in cash leagues and against him in tournaments.
Aside from Booker, we have three guys who could be close to chalk: Dalvin Cook, Denzel Mims, and Brandin Cooks. Although Cook is dealing with an injury, he’ll have an easy matchup against the Jaguars, who give up the fifth-most DKPPG to the position (28.2).
Mims and Cooks should both be popular plays at wide receiver, but I can’t bring myself to get excited about either of them. Although Brandin Cooks should be a focal point of Houston’s offense now that Will Fuller is suspended and Randall Cobb is on injured reserve, he’ll have to face one of the league’s best corners in Xavier Rhodes. He has surrendered the lowest completion percentage among corners, so I don’t get why so many people are targeting Cooks.
Mims is also confusing for me, although a bit less so. Yes, his speed and athleticism make him an intriguing upside play, but the Las Vegas Raiders are much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. So sure, he could make a big play or two, but you’re also betting on Sam Darnold to not see too many ghosts.
We have some interesting alternatives in the 10-20% range. First, we have our only tight end: Darren Waller. He’ll face the Jets, who give up the sixth-most DKPPG to the position (14.9). He should be a safe bet to rebound after a disappointing performance last week.
Aside from Waller, we have Coutee, who I like a lot given the fact that Rhodes should cover Cooks. We also have Preston Williams, who won’t play this week and may not return this season, so don’t expect his rostership to actually stay in this range. Darnell Mooney could be a super-smart upside play as well, especially if Allen Robinson can’t get healthy in time to start against the Lions.
Defense
We don’t have any clear favorites at defense this week. Among those in the 5-10% range, we have four betting favorites: the Steelers, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Packers.
Two of these favorites, Green Bay and Miami, should have no issues with dissecting their opponents’ quarterbacks. Neither Carson Wentz nor Brandon Allen poses much of a threat, and their teams have two of the league’s worst offensive lines in terms of adjusted sack rate (CIN: 25th, PHI: 32nd). That equals a lot of points.
Seattle should be a smart play against backup Colt McCoy, while the Steelers should continue to grind out sacks in a low-scoring game against Washington.
The Lions and Giants crack this list as low-priced underdogs. I don’t see the appeal of Detroit, as Mitch Trubisky has routinely burned the Lions, but the Giants make sense. Seattle’s offensive line ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate, and their revitalized emphasis on the run could keep this one low-scoring.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
