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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (12/30)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Dec 30, 2020

The Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks are the NBA’s last remaining undefeated teams. The Hawks will have a true test tonight in the Brooklyn Nets, and I’m targeting a few players in that game, as I expect it to be quite competitive. It has the slate’s highest projected point total (239.5), per the BettingPros consensus odds.

Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois.

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I. Value Plays

  • Kyrie Irving has looked fantastic on the Nets so far and is averaging 43.5 FanDuel points per game. On Sunday, the Nets showed us that they would commit to playing Irving and Kevin Durant for tons of minutes in close games, and I’m expecting a close battle between the Nets and the Hawks.
  • Lou Williams led the Clippers in points last night (20) despite only playing 20 minutes. He’s hot and fresh against a soft Portland defense and should get some run off the bench.
  • Payton Pritchard should see extra opportunities tonight, as Jayson Tatum is likely to get some rest after playing 40 minutes yesterday. Pritchard scored 23.5 FanDuel points in 27 minutes played last night.

  • I love Paul George against the Trail Blazers, especially with Kawhi Leonard’s status still up in the air. More on this below.
  • Devonte’ Graham has scored 33-plus FanDuel points over his last two games. He has a tougher-than-usual matchup this evening, but he logged 35 minutes in Charlotte’s upset over Brooklyn, and I expect him to see a similarly high share of the minutes tonight.
  • Avery Bradley played 24 minutes off the bench last night and finished third in points scored. He’s averaging 26.5 minutes per game so far, and if he gets that level of workload again tonight and Butler sits, I expect him to hit value at his low-end price point.

  • Jaylen Brown struggled with his shot last night, but he played only 34 minutes and will be much fresher than Jayson Tatum. Expect him to lead Boston’s offense tonight against the Grizzlies, who give up the most FanDuel points per game to opposing small forwards.
  • The Miami Heat got destroyed by the Milwaukee Bucks last night, but Tyler Herro still finished with 39.1 FanDuel points in 33 minutes. If Jimmy Butler sits again, he’s a good player to target.
  • Donte DiVincenzo has hit value at this price point three times now, and he just scored 26.2 FanDuel points against the Heats in only 19 minutes. He’ll be fresher than some of Milwaukee’s other key pieces, like Jrue Holiday, who played a team-high 26 minutes.

  • The Nets rank 23rd against opposing power forwards, and John Collins should do a lot of damage in Atlanta’s offense. We haven’t seen a ceiling game from him yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen tonight.,
  • Keldon Johnson has gotten off to a strong start this year, as he’s averaging 34 FDPPG, and the Lakers give up the 22nd-most FDPPG to power forwards.
  • Brandon Clarke had a featured role in Memphis’ upset win over the Nets, as he totaled 30.4 FanDuel points in 29 minutes. With both Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson sidelined, expect Clarke to get plenty of extra usage moving forward.

  • I like spending down at the center position tonight, and Bismack Biyombo is the most expensive of my value plays at the position. He’ll take on a Mavs defense that’s giving up the 18th-most FDPPG to opposing centers, and he should continue to see starter’s minutes with Cody Zeller hurt.
  • Yes, the Celtics added Tristan Thompson in the offseason, but he just played 27 minutes in the first part of Boston’s back-to-back, his most for the team to date. The Celtics may limit his minutes — or rest him entirely — against the Grizzlies, and that should free up some opportunities for Daniel Thies.
  • Dwight Powell remains Dallas’ starting center and should continue to get plenty of work with fellow big Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. The Hornets give up the most FDPPG to opposing centers, too, which certainly helps his case. While Willie Cauley-Stein will also get some minutes, Powell out-worked him in both of Dallas’ non-blowout games.

II. Five Notable Players to Feature

  1. Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,400 vs. CHA: Doncic should continue to carry the Mavericks with Porzingis sidelined. The Hornets have been surprisingly decent on defense so far, as they rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 14th in points per game allowed, but Doncic exploded for a triple-double the last time these teams met.
  2. Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,400 vs. ATL: I touched on this above, but I expect Irving to get a boatload of minutes in a hotly contested game. He’ll turn that usage into an above-average fantasy performance, finishing with more than 43.5 FanDuel points.
  3. Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,800 at DAL: Hayward has looked fantastic for the Hornets so far. He’s scored 40-plus FanDuel points in two of his three games, and he’s getting a consistently high share of minutes.
  4. Paul George (LAC) $7,600 vs. POR: George should be in for another team-leading day with Kawhi Leonard still dealing with a mouth injury. It’s unclear when his stitches will get removed, but he is listed as questionable and remains day-to-day. George averaged 23 points, 3.5 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game against the Blazers last year, and he should have an above-average day if Leonard can’t play.
  5. Goran Dragic (MIA) $6,900 vs. MIL: Dragic and the Heat imploded against the Bucks yesterday, and I don’t see how Jimmy Butler plays tonight after he was doubtful yesterday. When asked if Butler would play on Wednesday, head coach Erik Spoelstra said that he didn’t “want to get into percentages,” adding that the team would “continue to re-evaluate [Butler] every day.” Look for Dragic to bounce back after only playing nine minutes in last night’s blowout loss.

III. Five Notable Players to Fade

  1. Damian Lillard (POR) $9,200 at LAC: Lillard hasn’t had high-ceiling games against the Clippers. He averaged 20 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game against them last season, and he isn’t worth his high salary tonight.
  2. Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,200 vs. MEM: Tatum played 40 minutes against the Pacers last night and is a candidate for minutes reduction.
  3. Bam Adebayo (MIA) $8,200 vs. MIL: Adebayo stayed in yesterday’s game for 25 minutes and only recorded 26.2 FanDuel points. At his salary, you’re better off pivoting to a value play or Jonas Valanciunas instead.
  4. Clint Capela (ATL) $6,300 at BKN: Capela is still working his way back from injury, and I don’t expect him to see enough work tonight to justify his salary.
  5. Robert Covington (POR) $5,200 at LAC: Covington has struggled to start the year. The Trail Blazers should get Carmelo Anthony back tonight, too, which would make it difficult for Covington to turn things around.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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