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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 14 (2020)

FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 14 (2020)

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.

To all the season-long people that did not make the playoffs, welcome. Maybe you will have more luck with DFS this week while your league-mates compete in the playoffs, and maybe you can win a million and brag about it to them….okay, maybe not a million.

Here we are in Week 14, there are no more bye weeks to worry about, so the slate size is pretty good. Here are my values for Week 14…

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Quarterback

Daniel Jones (NYG): $6,800 vs. ARI
Jones is expected to be back this week, and, as long as he is healthy enough to play, should be able to put up some good numbers against the Cardinals who are ranked a middling 14th in DVOA. The Cardinals rank 12th in FD points allowed to quarterbacks, and Danny Dimes has played three straight games without throwing an interception.

Running Back

J.D. McKissic (WAS): $5,300 @ SF
Antonio Gibson has already been ruled out for this game leaving the backfield to Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic. If you remember, there was a time when McKissic was a viable option in DFS with Gibson on the field. He had two games in November with a total of 29 targets. In fact, McKissic had 10 targets in the last game after Gibson went down. Alex Smith has always loved a good check-down.

Kalen Ballage (LAC): $5,000 vs. ATL
Wipe last week’s outing from your mind. Neither Chargers’ running back was able to do anything after they fell behind so early. Ballage only had one fewer carry than Austin Ekeler, and while Ekeler’s nine targets are nice, Ballage had four himself. The game script favors the Chargers running backs in this game, and if you go back to the first few games of the season when Ekeler was healthy, running back Josh Kelley was getting a decent amount of touches. That role now belongs to Ballage, and he is a cheap way to get some exposure to a game that should be fairly high scoring.

Wide Receiver

Michael Gallup (DAL): $5,300 @ CIN
Gallup had his second-best game of the season last week, and his 11 targets were the most he has had since November 1st. This week he gets a defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 28rd against the pass. Quarterback Andy Dalton was looking his way early and often last week, and if that continues into week 14, his $5,300 price tag is way too low.

Collin Johnson (JAC): $5,100 vs. TEN
It’s time for us to recognize rookie wide receiver, Collin Johnson. We see this happen a lot when a backup, or in this case third-string, quarterback is forced to play, they have built-in chemistry with the fourth or fifth wideout on the team since that is who they have been throwing to in practice all season. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has 8 catches on 14 targets and a touchdown. Only four teams give up more points to wide receivers than do the Titans. At $5,100, Johnson is as good a punt as there is at wide receiver.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (CHI): $4,600 vs. HOU
After three straight games of playing at least 70 percent of the snaps, and seeing Jimmy Graham’s snaps go down to less than 50 percent in those three games, there has been a changing of the guard at tight end in Chicago. Kmet wasn’t able to do much with those opportunities until last week where he had five catches, 37 yards, and a touchdown. Houston is ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass so far this season.

Defense

New York Giants $3,700 vs. ARI
The Giants’ defense is still getting no respect from FanDuel. I’ve had them in my column multiple times this year, and they still aren’t priced correctly. Despite putting up 13 points against the Seahawks last week with five sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery they are still sub-4k.

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