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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 14 (2020)

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 14 (2020)

If you’re reading this column, it likely means you made the fantasy playoffs. Well, either that or you’re a glutton for punishment. Either way, come on in the water’s fine!

Before we discuss how to approach our lineups in Week 14, let’s pour one out for our snakebitten fantasy friends who did suffer a season-ending bad beat in Week 13. I missed out on a bye in a dynasty league with fellow FantasyPros writers thanks to Tyreek Hill‘s touchdown catch that wasn’t, but I can only imagine how much worse that was for people who missed the playoffs entirely because of it.

Tyreek’s non-catch was one of several paths to an excruciating loss last week. Most managers who were counting on Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably sitting at home for the fantasy playoffs (we’re all sitting at home playing a game on the internet during a pandemic, but you get my point). If you needed a big week from turf toe-stricken Antonio Gibson to get to the dance, it was no better. Heck, maybe you lost because Joe Buck cursed Justin Tucker or because your opponent had Raiders players who were facing the pathetic Jets and their since-axed defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.

Then there were those who didn’t have any obvious misfortune other than losing their matchup by fractions of a point. Those loses sting just as much, I promise you that. More than any other year in memory, I’ve seen a ton of leagues with thoroughly jumbled standings and even ones where teams who lead the league in points miss the playoffs entirely. Chalk it up to the chaos of 2020. But look on the bright side, 2021 is only three weeks away!

My Week 13 picks featured some big hits and some big misses. The strength of my selections was at wide receiver, where Jakobi Meyers was even more underwhelming than I predicted and my man Tim Patrick came through with yet another big performance. It was a different story at running back, where Wayne Gallman laughed in my face for dismissing him as “touchdown-dependent,” and Latavius Murray’s growing usage alongside Taysom Hill came to a screeching halt. At QB, both my undervalued pick (Kirk Cousins) and overvalued pick (Ryan Tannehill) had 300+ yards and 3 TDs, but it was Tannehill who had the better fantasy day. Meanwhile, my undervalued tight end (Jordan Akins) and overvalued tight end (Evan Engram) combined for 42 yards, which pretty much tells you all you need to know about this dumpster fire of a position.

As a quick refresher, my overvalued and undervalued picks for Week 14 are against FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. I’m happy to field all of your start/sit questions on Twitter @andrew_seifter, and you can catch my waiver wire pickups every Tuesday and strategy tips every Saturday on MFSN’s The Hub on YouTube.

Without further ado, away we go. Good luck in the fantasy playoffs!

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Quarterback

Overvalued: Kyler Murray (ARI)
ECR: QB10
My Rank: QB14

I usually tell people to start their studs in the fantasy playoffs, but I am making an exception for Murray. Kyler is the QB2 for the year, but he is merely the QB25 over his last three games. Three games ago happens to be when Murray injured his shoulder, in the first quarter of his Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks. Since then, he has rushed a total of 15 times for 61 scoreless yards — after rushing for at least 61 yards and a touchdown in each of the previous four games.

Whether that lack of rushing production is due to the shoulder or simply defenses making adjustments to contain him, it is taking a major toll on Murray’s fantasy value because he is not a volume passer. For instance, last week, he threw three touchdowns but only accumulated 173 passing yards and finished as the QB19. So when Murray says “I don’t think I have to run for us to be successful,” it should set off alarm bells for fantasy managers. The impact has been particularly pronounced around the goal line. Murray rushed for 11 touchdowns through his first nine games, but in the last three games, Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds have combined for 18 red zone carries compared to just one for Murray.

Murray also happens to be facing a very underrated Giants defense that has allowed just three touchdown passes in their last four games (versus five interceptions). But as long as he’s only rushing five times a game — and handing it off near the goal line — the quality of the opposing pass defense is almost beside the point.

Undervalued: Tom Brady (TB)
ECR: QB11
My Rank: QB7

Brady has had a few high-profile clunkers in his first season in Tampa Bay, but they’ve mostly come against tough defenses (the Rams, Saints, Packers, and Bears). He’s still the QB10 in fantasy points per game (min. 10 games), and the QB7 over his last six games. This week, he’ll face off with a Vikings defense that gives up the sixth-most passing yards and fifth-most passing scores in the league. Minnesota’s pass defense has been statistically better lately, but that’s probably because their last four opponents have been Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mike Glennon.

It’s mildly concerning that Brady’s top red-zone target Mike Evans missed practice on Thursday, but even if Evans were to miss the game, Brady still has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest projected point total on the Week 14 slate, so look for Brady to have one of his better games.

Running Back

Overvalued: Giovani Bernard (CIN)
ECR: RB20
My Rank: RB28

I feel like I’m usually the guy hyping up the lead back on bad teams, but the mustached man is a bridge too far for me in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Yes, his last four opponents (PIT, WAS, NYG, MIA) have much better defenses than this week’s opponent, the Cowboys, who rank dead last against the run. Still, it’s hard to get around the fact that Bernard is averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry this season and hasn’t averaged over 4.0 YPC since way back in 2017. Or that he’s only averaging 12 touches over the last month and has been ceding 30-40 percent of the snaps to Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams.

Team context is another major blemish on Bernard’s fantasy resume. Whether it’s been Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen under center, the absence of Joe Burrow has completely deprived Bernard of any plausible touchdown upside. The Bengals are projected to score the third-fewest points in the league this week, and even against an opponent like Dallas, they are likely to fall behind and abandon the running game.

Undervalued: James Conner (PIT)
ECR: RB18
My Rank: RB14

It’s been an up-and-down season for Conner, who got banged up and struggled in Week 1, rushed for 100+ in three of the next four games, endured another dry spell, and then ran well in Week 11 before landing on the COVID list. But Conner is set to return this week, and the lack of productivity from Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland while he was out ensures he’ll be returning to a bell-cow role. The Steelers are not a productive rushing offense, but they are a prolific scoring offense, and the fact that Conner is capable of playing on all three downs puts him in position to potentially take advantage. This week’s matchup against Buffalo is a favorable one; the Bills rank ninth in the league in rushing yards allowed and tied for fifth in rushing scores allowed.

I won’t lie, Pittsburgh’s lack of commitment to the running game is concerning for Conner. But given the uncertain state of the running back position as a whole, I’ll take my chance with a bell-cow back in a high-scoring offense who also has a favorable matchup.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: DeVante Parker (MIA)
ECR: WR25
My Rank: WR34

The argument against Parker is simple. In fact, it’s just three letters: T.U.A. Tua Tagovailoa has made five starts for the Dolphins, and here is where Parker has ranked among fantasy wide receivers in those five starts: WR46, WR40, WR64, WR15, and WR66. On the other hand, Parker was the WR26 or better in four of the seven games that Ryan Fitzpatrick started. The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and Parker is easy to spot on the football field and it shows up in the box score, too. There’s no other way to put it — the Dolphins’ decision to bench Fitzpatrick is a massive hit to Parker’s fantasy value. With Tagovailoa and Parker facing an above-average Chiefs pass defense this week, I wouldn’t feel particularly confident putting Parker in my lineup, even as a WR3.

Undervalued: Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
ECR: WR30
My Rank: WR20

Speaking of chemistry between quarterbacks and wide receivers, Nick Mullens and Aiyuk seem to have a good dose of it. In the 5 games he’s played in where Mullens was the 49ers’ primary QB, Aiyuk has finished as the WR12, WR26, WR7, WR15, and WR12. The talented rookie has emerged as an every-down player in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and he’s averaging a healthy 11 targets per game over his last three appearances. Deebo Samuel only played in one of those games, but the Niners’ top two receivers should be able to co-exist with George Kittle on the sideline.

Aiyuk’s Week 14 matchup with Kendall Fuller and the Washington Football Team is a tough one on paper, but the Football Team has been increasingly springing leaks in its pass coverage over the second half of the season. Marvin Jones, Marvin Hall, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington have all put up top-27 WR numbers against them over the last four weeks. Given his recent performance and connection with Mullens, I’d feel comfortable firing Aiyuk up as a WR2 this week.

Tight End

Overvalued: Hunter Henry (LAC)
ECR: TE5
My Rank: TE9

Henry frequently seems to find himself inside the top-5 in ECR despite barely ranking among the top-12 tight ends in fantasy points per game this season. In fact, he’s only finished as a top-nine TE in two games all year. And that’s in a really bad year for tight ends!

As I’ve observed here before, it certainly seems like Henry should be more productive given that he is tied for fourth at the position in targets and plays with breakout QB of the year, Justin Herbert. But it simply hasn’t translated. He has failed to top 40 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games and only scored three touchdowns all season. You’d also think a matchup with the Falcons would be a good opportunity for him to get back on track, but Atlanta has been playing much better pass defense lately, as I mentioned in this space last week.

Undervalued: Dallas Goedert (PHI)
ECR: TE12
My Rank: TE6

Goedert ranks as the TE7 in fantasy points per game this season and he’s been taking it to another level lately, producing top-three TE value over his last three games. This has all come as Carson Wentz has crashed and burned, mind you. It’s fair to wonder what impact rookie Jalen Hurts will have on the Eagles’ passing game, but considering that Philadelphia currently ranks in the bottom five in passing yardage, it’s at least as likely to help as hurt. Goedert remains the single best bet for targets in the Eagles’ offense and he is a frequent red-zone target, as well. Philadelphia may struggle to score points against a very tough Saints defense, but that isn’t reason enough to sit him when he is one of the only tight ends in the league who is truly an integral part of his team’s offense.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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