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FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge Advice: Week 14

by Rob Searles | @RobBob17 | Featured Writer
Dec 13, 2020

Below are my picks for Week 14 of the Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM. Good luck to all of you who were fortunate enough to make the playoffs in your fantasy leagues!

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Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)vs ATL – Over 21.0
After being on the wrong side of 45-doughnut, Justin Herbert officially had his introduction to Bill Belichick last week. Even the greatest rookie quarterback in NFL history couldn’t stand a chance against ol’ Billy boy. With that slice of humble pie behind him, Herbert and Keenan Allen are probably so excited to face Atlanta and their 30th ranked pass defense that they might have half a mind to drive the Falcons’ busses from the hotel just to ensure that they show up to SoFi Stadium. With Anthony Lynn’s days numbered in Los Angeles, he and Pep Hamilton will jump at every opportunity they can get to showcase their rookie quarterback. Herbert gets back to his dominant ways in this quintessential “get right” matchup.

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) vs NO – Under 15.0
I hate to burst the Hurts bubble for thirsty dynasty players yearning for their “I TOLD YOU!” moment, but last I checked, the former Boomer Sooner/Roll Tide quarterback is still stuck leading this Philadelphia Eagles offense. Que asco. That alone should make you run for the hills. But just in case you woke up feeling dangerous, do yourself a favor and find an alternative at quarterback this week before you torpedo your fantasy season. Taysom Hill, the third-highest scoring quarterback since taking over as the starter, is going to show the rookie a thing or two about what an elite dual-threat quarterback can do when you surround him with weapons galore.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) vs DEN – Under 20.0
With McCaffrey already being ruled out for Week 14, it’s such a bummer that rookie head coach Matt Rhule and rookie offensive coordinator Joe Brady haven’t had enough chances to show off their most valuable weapon in their debut season in the league. 

David Montgomery (RB – CHI) vs HOU – Over 14.0
Since head coach Matt Nagy reverted to Mitch Trubisky as the Bears’ starting quarterback, Montgomery has been rewarding his fantasy managers with over 100 scrimmage yards and at least one touchdown in both of Trubisky’s starts. Going up against a Texans defense in Week 14 that ranks 31st at stopping the run, go ahead and keep rolling Montgomery out there for your fantasy playoffs. Montgomery waltzes his way to a third consecutive RB1 performance.

Raheem Mostert (RB – SF) vs WAS – Under 12.3
The dreaded Kyle Shanahan running back carousel reappeared on Monday night during their “home” matchup against the Buffalo Bills. After getting stuffed at the goal line early in the first half, Mostert ceded nine touches to Jeff Wilson Jr. in a game that didn’t present many running game opportunities for the 49ers after they found themselves trailing by three scores in the third quarter. Considering the current state of San Francisco’s offense and the matchup going up against Washington’s 10th ranked rushing defense, I can’t trust my 2020 Must-Have Player of the Year this week.

D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA) vs NYJ – Over 15.5
Speaking of “Get Right” matchups, holy moly could Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks use one after their stinker at home last week to the Colt McCoy-led New York Football Giants. With Seattle having lost three out of their last five, I’m expecting Metcalf to go completely nuclear against the winless Jets. No Gregg Williams Cover-0 blitz with the game hanging in the balance will be necessary in this one, as Metcalf goes for 200 yards and two scores against the 31st ranked pass defense. Two hundred yards, correct.

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) @ TB – Over 14.1
With Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers getting absolutely embarrassed for 60 minutes by Belichick and the Patriots last week, Justin Jefferson is firmly entrenched in the driver’s seat for 2020 NFL Rookie of the Year honors. The overall WR4 on the year has been on an absolute tear over the past month, surpassing this projection in each of the past four weeks. I wrote about how the Vikings offense will have to get out of their run-oriented comfort zone and attack Todd Bowles and his aggressive Tampa Bay defense through the air on Sunday, who rank 22nd at defending the pass. With a game changing weapon like Jefferson, you would think that most coaches would be chomping at the bit to build their offense around him. But with Mike Zimmer and Gary Kubiak’s preference for stone age football, Jefferson is stuck playing in an offense that ranks 29th in passing volume.

Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU) @ CHI – Under 12.6|
Right when we thought the Brandin Cooks blowup was about to ensue following the absence of Will Fuller and Kenny Stills from the Houston Texans offense, it was Patrick Mahomes‘ old college teammate, Keke Coutee, who emerged as Deshaun Watson‘s most trusted receiver last week against the Indianapolis Colts. Cooks has largely been touchdown-dependent this season, especially when a projection like this is being asked of him. While Chicago’s defense is likely to get lit up for the third week in a row, Watson will deliver his touchdown strikes elsewhere.

Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) vs PIT – Over 13.6
This Sunday Night Football matchup should be a doozy. With the Steelers uncorking the champagne for the 1972 Dolphins following their loss Monday night to Alex Smith and his Washington Football Team, the schedule doesn’t get any easier having to play the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills a visit. With Diggs averaging 10 targets per game, ranking second in the league behind Keenan Allen, you already know Josh Allen will lean on his new receiver in this one, especially on critical third downs. Pittsburgh’s defense just isn’t striking the same amount of fear as it did earlier in the year after losing both Bud Dupree and Devin Bush for the year with season-ending injuries. 

Robert Tonyan (TE – GB) @ DET – Over 8.7
Don’t look now, but Bobby Tonyan is currently tied with Travis Kelce for the positional lead with eight touchdowns on the year. Having scored in three straight games, Tonyan is cementing his role as the number two option for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay’s offense. With second-year head coach Matt LaFleur scheming this offense as well as he has all year, it’s impossible to bet against Tonyan facing a Detroit defense that ranks 26th in defending the pass. With the Packers seemingly doing everything they possibly can to steal the MVP away from Mahomes in favor of Rodgers, Tonyan makes it four straight games coming down with a touchdown grab.

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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @RobBob17.

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