FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge Advice: Week 16
Good luck to everybody competing for fantasy football championships this week! Below are my picks for this season’s final edition of the Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM.
Since transparency is the name of the game here, I also included how my picks fared throughout the course of the season. I’m grateful that FantasyPros gave me the opportunity to write a weekly piece this season and I hope that I was able to provide some assistance along the way. More importantly, I hope my misses didn’t cost you too much!
I really appreciate you reading along this year and I hope you continue to check out my work as we tackle the fantasy offseason content over the next coming weeks.
- Week 1: 6-4
- Week 2: 4-6
- Week 3: 6-4
- Week 4: 3-7 (stinker!)
- Week 5: 5-4-1
- Week 6: 6-4
- Week 7: 4-6
- Week 8: 5-4-1
- Week 9: 6-4
- Week 10: 4-6
- Week 11: 5-5
- Week 12: 4-6
- Week 13: 8-2
- Week 14: 6-4
- Week 15: 5-5
Total through Week 15: 77-71-2
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) vs ATL: Over 24.0
With the #1 seed in the AFC and the best record in the NFL all but sealed, “Patrick Mahomes II” is already engraved on the 2020 NFL MVP award. Aaron Rodgers had been clinging to the style points argument over the past few weeks as he staked his claim for the award, forcing himself to play impossibly flawless in order to keep pace with Mahomes. But the Packers had a Bubba Sparxxx ugly second half stinker in Week 15 at home against Carolina while Mahomes effortlessly went into the Big Easy and threw three touchdowns against the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints. Mahomes gets an Atlanta secondary that ranks 31st at defending the pass and will happily play the role of allowing Andy Reid’s cheat code to put the finishing touches on securing his second MVP in just three seasons as a starter in the National Football League.
We’ve only just begun, folks. The frogger voiced ketchup lover will own every quarterback record in the book when it’s all said and done.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) @ DAL: Over 20.9
Man alive! Hurts has forced quite the Championship Sunday conundrum onto his fantasy managers with his stellar play over the past two weeks operating as Philadelphia’s starting quarterback! The matchup inside Jerry’s World against Mike Nolan’s Dallas Cowboys defense doesn’t make the decision any easier for folks who are stuck with two quality options in their fantasy Super Bowls. For what it’s worth, I’ve seen a lot of chatter on the ol’ Twitter machine this past week regarding Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts for Week 16. While I think Lincoln Riley’s most recent former signal caller at QBU — excuse me, OU — can achieve the over here, I’m still hitching my fantasy wagon to Josh Allen if forced to pick between the two of them for all the marbles.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI) @ JAX: Over 15.6
The second-year running back out of Iowa State has been the most consistent fantasy running back over the past month, eclipsing 22.8 fantasy points in each of the last four games. Going up against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in stopping the run, Jacksonville head coach Doug Marrone will not let a golden opportunity like this go to waste: After watching the New York Jets shock the world by beating Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams inside SoFi Stadium in Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars are now sitting comfortably in the driver’s seat for the #1 pick and the right to draft Trevor Lawrence. An opportunity like this doesn’t come around too often, and David Montgomery’s fantasy managers will be the primary beneficiary, as well as Bears fans everywhere as another win keeps their ball club in contention in the NFC Wild Card hunt. Montgomery remains on the running back throne, easily surpassing this projection on Championship Sunday.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) @ DAL: Over 14.2
If you’ve been following all this year, you should probably already know how I feel about Mike Nolan and his league-worst rushing defense. Even though Sanders has largely been touchdown dependent this season, there’s no way in H-E-double-hockey-sticks that I can side with Nolan here. With Jalen Hurts using his legs last week at Arizona to vulture a red zone touchdown away from Sanders, I’d be lying if I said that Hurts’s mobility doesn’t spook me here with Sanders hitting the over. But any sliver of doubt I just felt immediately subsided once I was reminded that Mike Nolan still coordinates this Dallas Cowboys defense.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) @ PIT: Under 13.5
Frank Reich’s offensive line has had a tough week in preparation for one of their biggest games of the season with a visit to Pittsburgh to take on the 11-3 Steelers in Week 16. With starting tackle Braden Smith having already been ruled out due to COVID-19, things got much worse on Saturday with opposite starting tackle Anthony Castonzo being ruled out as well with knee and ankle issues. Even though interior bruiser Quenton Nelson is still up for Indianapolis, I can’t bet on the rookie runner Taylor as he goes up against the defense that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league, despite their struggles of late. With Pittsburgh still being without Bud Dupree and Devin Bush, the Steelers need the rest of their front seven to pick it up if they have any plans of righting this ship before the playoffs in two weeks.
The Titans offensive coordinator has done such a tremendous job of sticking to the script: getting the ball into Derrick Henry’s hands early and often, and picking defenses apart with chunk plays to Brown through play action. Considering that Brown has surpassed this projection in five of the past seven weeks, I’m not hesitating whatsoever on this one. In a game that should provide plenty of scoring and fireworks for the Sunday Night Football crowd, you already know that Brown will have his fingerprints all over this game.
Davante Adams (WR – GB) vs TEN: Over 18.3
In a surprising turn of events, Carolina’s unique defensive scheme was able to take away the most consistent receiver in today’s NFL during their Week 15 contest at Lambeau Field. Despite the stinker last week, Adams still entered Week 15 with the second-most receiving scores in the league, trailing only Tyreek Hill. With his eight game scoring streak now in the rearview, Adams will be forced to get back on the right track for his fantasy managers as he goes up against a Titans defense that is in the basement for both passing yards allowed (29th) and passing touchdowns allowed (28th). Adams finds the end zone twice and comes down with over 100 yards through the air.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) vs DEN: Under 13.1
Unfortunately for Keenan Allen, he’s already been ruled out for Week 16’s contest against the divisional Denver Broncos.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) vs PHI: Under 10.3
I can’t wait to see what Lamb can do in 16 games with Dak Prescott as his quarterback. But until next season rolls around, you won’t catch me asking for Andy “Red Rocket” Dalton to do me any favors. The fact that Amari Cooper has remained one of fantasy’s most consistent receivers, despite last week’s stinker, simply isn’t being talked about enough. With Tony Pollard‘s breakout performance last week against Robert Saleh’s San Francisco 49ers defense, the pieces are in place for this Cowboys offense. All they need is better luck on the injury front in 2021 and they will remain fantasy gold. If you’re anything like me, you’ll be loading up on Cowboys stacks left and right once again next year.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) vs NYG: Over 10.3
I was relieved for Andrews’ fantasy value in Week 16 once I saw that Daniel Jones was getting the start at quarterback for the Giants. As we’ve seen twice already, Colt McCoy is not to be trusted whatsoever in consideration for opposing pass catchers and their fantasy value (unless they’re able to come down with a touchdown like Jarvis Landry in Week 15). Despite Baltimore’s obvious desire to keep the ball on the ground, Andrews has been able to reward fantasy managers with touchdowns in two of his last three games. While a touchdown would be nice, it won’t be necessary for Andrews in order for him to hit the over.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.