FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge: Week 13
Below are my picks for Week 13 of the Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) vs DEN – Over 23.2
Mahomes, Andy Reid, and all of the weapons at their disposal have been toying with opposing defenses throughout all of 2020. Whether they’re dialing up QB-motion double reverse tight end passes from Travis Kelce-to-Mahomes at the goal line or having Kelce fake option pitches 20 yards downfield after securing first down receptions, this offense has long been residing on another planet. Any concerns that you might have about the Chiefs running away with this matchup too early for Mahomes to have 60 minutes worth of football to put up numbers, allow me to remind you how the Chiefs went about handling the winless New York Jets inside Arrowhead back in Week 8. In a 35-9 rout, the Chiefs still let Mahomes chuck it 42 times, even giving their MVP quarterback the green light to hit Tyreek Hill on a 41-yard touchdown bomb in the fourth quarter with the game already well in hand. You’d be outside your gourd to bet against Mahomes and the over inside Arrowhead, regardless of their opponent.
Taysom Hill (QB – NO) @ ATL – Over 18.3
Ah, yes! My dearly beloved most polarizing quarterback in the game today (Say it with me one time: “Quar-Ter-Back…”, there ya go, very good!). Now that we’ve got that out of the way, Sean Payton’s long-awaited weapon that’s been marinating in the Saints’ quarterback lab for years has continued to receive criticism and skepticism regarding his ability to perform as a Quar-Ter-Back in the National Football League. Despite leading the Saints offense to two easy blowout victories, outscoring their opponents 55-12 since becoming the starting quarterback, the general commentary of Hill consists of what armchair quarterbacks continue to tell whoever will listen what the former BYU signal caller CAN’T do. In case you’ve since forgotten, the Saints were in no position whatsoever to throw the ball going up against a practice squad wide receiver thrust into action as the Broncos quarterback last week. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: Hill has finished as the QB4 and QB11, even though he’s yet to throw a single touchdown pass throughout his career. That changes on Sunday, as Hill will continue to lean on Michael Thomas, finishing with his third consecutive QB1 performance. Hill blows up and puts together his second masterful performance against the lowly Falcons (31st ranked pass defense) in three weeks.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) @ ATL – Over 13.8
Reminder: the sky is not falling and Alvin Kamara is still Alvin Kamara. Unfortunately for Kamara and his fantasy managers, the fantasy community wants you to believe that Sean Payton has since forgotten that he still has one of the most talented running backs operating in his offense. As if Sean Payton not giving a flying you-know-what about your fantasy running back is a part of this “new normal”, feel free to check out this brief history lesson with Sean Payton and then Saints RB1, Mark Ingram, from 2016. Again, Payton has been doing this exact same thing with his backfield for years. The offensive wizard electing to give his RB2 double-digit touches is nothing new, as Latavius Murray has already handled 10+ touches in nine of 11 games in 2020. Rest assured, Kamara will be just fine and Sunday should help alleviate any concerns that you might have if you’re rostering the electric running back.
Chris Carson (RB – SEA) vs NYG – Over 13.1
After missing four weeks with a foot sprain, Carson returned to the Seahawks offense in Week 12 with immediate results. Despite receiving 16 fewer snaps than backfield-mate Carlos Hyde, Carson still managed to turn his 10 touches into 59 scrimmage yards and a goal line touchdown. With Carson going up against the New York Giants, who will be without their starting quarterback in Daniel Jones, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to regain control of the Seattle backfield. There is a viable reason to be concerned over New York’s fifth ranked run-stuffing front, but I still have supreme confidence in Carson’s ability to essentially replicate his production from last week, albeit with more touches in a game that should have plenty of positive gamescript for Seattle.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) vs DEN – Under 11.9
Whether it’s Edwards-Helaire’s midweek illness that caused him to miss practice on Thursday and Friday, and/or Le’Veon Bell‘s presence in Kansas City’s backfield, Edwards-Helaire achieving the over this week is a moderately big ask. Granted, the starting running back for the Chiefs will forever be a weekly blowup candidate simply due to their attachment to this Ferrari of an offense orchestrated by the best offensive mind that the NFL has ever seen. However, Clyde has fallen flat on his face in similar mouth-watering home matchups in recent weeks, including against the Jets and Panthers where he failed to reach this particular projection in both contests. My money is securely being placed on Mahomes having another eye-popping performance, rendering the former LSU running back as a mere afterthought for the Sunday Night Football audience.
Davante Adams (WR – GB) vs PHI – Over 17.7
I have to admit, I’m really digging the star-studded lineup that we’re working with for the Over/Under Challenge this week. Should go without saying, but star power is always more appealing than role players like Travis Fulgham and/or Jakobi Meyers from the Week 11 edition. With that out of the way, allow me to shift my focus back to the best receiver that currently resides in the NFC. Adams is an absolute target machine who continues to elevate his game and mind warp rapport with MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers on a yearly basis. These two have been playing at all-time level in 2020. Despite failing to reach this projection over Green Bay’s last two home games, I’m expecting at least 20 points after Rodgers admitted that he missed Adams on what should have been their second touchdown connection in Week 12 against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) vs NE – Under 14.5
The current NFL leader in targets will have his hands full going up against Bill Belichick and a week’s worth of scouting. It’s so tough to bet against Justin Herbert, who just so happens to be smack dab in the middle of compiling the best season for a rookie quarterback in NFL history, but them’s the rules when it comes to Big Game Belichick and rookie quarterbacks. On top of Belichick’s defensive scheme, Allen and the Chargers will be going up against a New England Patriots offense that currently ranks third in the NFL in playing ball control with the average length of time for each offensive drive. LA’s bottom-half rush defense (18th) will need to come correct in order to get the ball back to Herbert, as Belichick and Josh McDaniels will go out of their way to chew up clock and keep the Chargers offense on the sidelines. Don’t look now, but the Patriots have half a mind to sneak their way into the AFC playoffs.
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) vs NYG – Under 13.2
I’ll apologize in advance to any and every Tyler Lockett fantasy manager out there. But D.K. Metcalf has long passed the diminutive slot receiver in the Seahawks receiver hierarchy. That’s not meant to be a slight to Lockett, as I fully understand that Lockett still leads the team in targets. But my goodness, Metcalf is the definition of a difference-maker at the position. As I mentioned earlier, I’m envisioning a game where the Seahawks are in control throughout, going up against Colt “Hook ‘Em” McCoy filling in for the injured Daniel Jones at quarterback for a New York team that will struggle to keep pace with the high-flying Seahawks. Matchup aside, Lockett has achieved double-digit fantasy points in only two of his past eight games. Lockett is the 2020 poster child for boom or bust. Mark me down for another week of bust out of Lockett.
A.J. Brown (WR – TEN) vs CLE – Over 13.0
Did someone just mention Boom? Because that’s quite literally all that A.J. Brown does. Whether it’s making house calls on onside kickoff returns or running over multiple Ravens’ defenders en route to the end zone, the second year man out of Ole Miss has solidified himself as must-see television for the football world. Aside from Tyreek Hill and a healthy Davante Adams, you won’t find a more consistent wide receiver for fantasy purposes than Brown, as he’s currently averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game since returning from injury prior to Tennessee’s Week 4 bye. Brown’s consistency is that much more remarkable considering that the Titans rank 28th in passing volume. Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will be near the top of every owners’ head coaching wish list following the 2020 season, as Smith takes full advantage of having two of the NFL’s most uniquely talented individuals in Brown and running back Derrick Henry.
Evan Engram (TE – NYG) @ SEA – Under 8.9
Hard pass. I’m not trusting any Giants pass catchers with Colt McCoy operating as Jason Garrett’s quarterback in Week 13.
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