Feast or Famine: Week 13 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Feast or Famine! A weekly breakdown of the most variable player rankings by standard deviation from FantasyPros Weekly ECR.
These players are ranked as either sensational hits or relative busts, and I’ll be giving my reasoning on why you should lean one side over the other. Having no clear group consensus means these are the decisions that could win or lose you your weekly matchup or DFS lineup. Knowledge is power in these situations, so let’s begin.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Highest rank: QB4. Lowest Rank: QB19.
The Browns are allowing top-11 points to quarterbacks yet bottom-7 to running backs on the season. This is largely glossed over when analyzing their defensive matchups. Consider when you also see that Vegas has given the Titans an implied total of 30 points this week. Two touchdowns feels like the floor for Tannehill this week in a primed matchup against a usual pass-funnel defense when the weather isn’t making the passing game impossible. Expect big things from him this week.
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Highest rank: QB3. Lowest Rank: QB11.
You likely aren’t benching Murray come hell or high water. He’s at the point where matchups don’t matter as he’s proven he is an elite fantasy asset. Just bear in mind that he is coming off his worst game of the year and now faces a Rams defense that is allowing the fewest passing scores in the league, and the second-fewest points to quarterbacks. The Jalen Ramsey versus DeAndre Hopkins contest will be fun to watch, but I think the Rams defense has what it takes to slow this squad down. Vegas apparently agrees as the Rams enter as three-point favorites in a game total at 48.
Kareem Hunt (CLE)
Highest rank: RB9. Lowest Rank: RB23.
If you can’t tell by now, I’m obsessed with exploiting recency bias. Players that have one good or bad game skews their ranking of the following week. They aren’t playing the same team nor under the same circumstances. I trust the year-long data, usage, and scoring more than what happened last week, and Kareem Hunt is RB9 overall on the season. He now gets a high-scoring game, against a team that allows the 7th-most points to the position, and are 5.5 point underdogs which should lead to more formations favoring Hunt’s pass-catching skill set.
David Montgomery (CHI)
Highest rank: RB4. Lowest Rank: RB16.
Please forgive my personal bias as I’ve been anti-Montgomery for fantasy for a long time, but RB9 for the week is far higher than he should be any week. He is coming off his best game of the year, which involved chunk gains against prevent defense in garbage time along with a last-second score. Packers are allowing the second-most points to running backs, and in first place is his matchup against the Lions this week. Don’t forget that the Lions have already hosted the Bears in which Montgomery put up a sultry 7.90 points. This game has a sad overall total of 44.5 and he will almost certainly need to find the endzone to be fantasy relevant.
People often over-compensate due to recency bias. One good or bad game throws perspective out the window for general consensus rankings.
David Montgomery had his best game of the year and Kareem Hunt had his worst.
Monty is now RB9 and Hunt RB15 for week 13 ECR… ?♂️ pic.twitter.com/uGiAEAQhI2
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) December 2, 2020
Brandin Cooks (HOU)
Highest rank: WR9. Lowest Rank: WR36.
Cooks and Fuller highlighted my feast section last week, and they put on a show. Now that Fuller has been suspended for the remainder of the season, who else is Watson going to target? Randall Cobb is hurt, Kenny Still just left, which leaves Cooks and Coutee as their top two receiving options. Watson is still an elite quarterback, and Cooks will be their clear cut WR1 going forward. While it is a tough matchup against the Colts, his target share hitting above 30% seems very realistic.
Christian Kirk (ARI)
Highest rank: WR28. Lowest Rank: WR56.
Also listed in the famine column honorable mention last week, Kirk put up 3 points. This doesn’t look much better and is highly tied to the same topics discussed under Kyler Murray’s section. This increase of rushing touchdowns also comes to the detriment of Kirk. After his three week flurry of high point outing, he has not eclipsed seven points in the last three weeks. No team in the NFL has allowed fewer points to wide receivers than the Rams. Lineups beware.
Dallas Goedert (PHI)
Highest rank: TE3. Lowest Rank: TE13.
Watching Carson Wentz play the Seahawks last week was comparable to a kid being glued to a television show. Wentz was the kid, and Goedert was the show. He was first look, last look, and everything between on more plays than I could count. It is obnoxiously clear that he is Wentz’s favorite target. The Eagles being nine-point underdogs should ensure the pass calls remain heavy, and Goedert will be the biggest beneficiary.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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