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Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 17 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 17 (2020 Fantasy Football)

You and I are in an exclusive club. Not only are we in fantasy leagues that have finals in Week 17, but we find ourselves in those finals. Maybe you’ve been trying and failing for years to convince your commissioner to change it. Maybe you are the commissioner yourself and didn’t realize it’s the default setting on ESPN. Fixing our league settings is a problem for another day. Right now, we need to figure out how to win in Week 17.

The problem with Week 17 is that many teams don’t have anything to play for, either because they have locked up their playoff spot already or have been eliminated. To make matters worse, NFL coaches aren’t exactly forthcoming with their plans. The Chiefs have locked up the first seed in the AFC, so we’ve gotten as close as we’re going to get to confirmation that they’ll rest Mahomes and start Chad Henne. There’s also a good chance that the Steelers sit their starters, too; while they can jump from the third seed to the second seed if they win and the Bills lose to the Dolphins, there is no longer a bye week to play for.

This is a pain for other fantasy players because it sucks to lose someone like Travis Kelce for the finals when you’ve been relying on him all year. For defenses, it’s interesting. A team starting their backup quarterback is always in the conversation as a target for team defenses, especially when the team’s best running backs are also sitting out. These situations can be hard to predict on Sunday morning, much less so on Tuesday, so it’s worth keeping an eye on teams like Pittsburgh and Buffalo who are a “maybe” at this point.

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Ranks

Unfortunately, rostership numbers reflect all leagues, so we don’t have a good sense of how these might differ in Week 17 leagues. It’s possible that the Cowboys, with the Giants on their schedule this week, are much more than 23% rostered in leagues where people have been planning for Week 17. Nonetheless, with just your opponent to compete with, you should be able to get one of my top few defenses. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Rank Team Vs. O/U Spread PA Sack Turnovers TD FPTS Rost%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 BAL @CIN 44.5 -11.5 16.5 2.9 1.1 0.09 7.11 99%
2 IND JAC 50 -14 18 2.8 1.2 0.10 7.03 79%
3 LAC @KC 43.5 -3.5 20 2.8 1.4 0.12 6.99 32%
4 NE NYJ 41 -3.5 18.75 2.6 1.4 0.11 6.99 45%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
5 SEA @SF 46.5 -5.5 20.5 3.3 1.2 0.10 6.89 62%
6 DAL @NYG 44.5 -2.5 21 3.2 1.3 0.11 6.88 23%
7 ARI @LAR 39.5 1.5 20.5 2.8 1.3 0.11 6.51 43%
8 LAR ARI 39.5 -1.5 19 2.6 1.2 0.10 6.46 75%
9 CLE PIT 42.5 -7 17.75 1.8 1.3 0.11 6.23 86%
10 NO @CAR 48 -6.5 20.75 2.8 1.1 0.09 6.18 79%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11 MIN @DET 54.5 -6.5 24 3 1.3 0.11 6.17 40%
12 WAS @PHI 42.5 -1.5 20.5 3.1 0.9 0.08 6.08 41%
13 PHI WAS 42.5 1.5 22 2.8 1.1 0.10 6.00 30%
14 TB ATL 50.5 -6.5 22 2.5 1.2 0.10 5.89 51%
15 GB @CHI 50.5 -5.5 22.5 2.7 1.2 0.10 5.89 45%
16 TEN @HOU 56 -7.5 24.25 2.9 1.2 0.10 5.87 35%
17 NYJ @NE 41 3.5 22.25 2.4 1.3 0.11 5.79 5%
18 NYG DAL 44.5 2.5 23.5 2.5 1.3 0.11 5.77 12%
19 SF SEA 46.5 5.5 26 3.1 1.1 0.10 5.53 53%
20 KC LAC 43.5 3.5 23.5 2.5 1.2 0.10 5.45 73%
21 PIT @CLE 42.5 7 24.75 2.2 1.3 0.11 5.32 92%
22 MIA @BUF 47.5 3.5 25.5 2.5 1.2 0.10 5.18 68%
23 LV @DEN 50.5 -2.5 24 1.5 1.4 0.12 4.93 15%
24 CHI GB 50.5 5.5 28 2.8 1.1 0.09 4.66 83%
25 DEN LV 50.5 2.5 26.5 2.2 1.1 0.10 4.57 19%
26 BUF MIA 47.5 -3.5 22 1.7 1 0.08 4.45 86%
27 HOU TEN 56 7.5 31.75 2.9 1.2 0.10 4.29 42%
28 CAR NO 48 6.5 27.25 1.8 1.2 0.10 4.27 19%
29 ATL @TB 50.5 6.5 28.5 2.1 1.2 0.10 4.18 2%
30 CIN BAL 44.5 11.5 28 2.3 1 0.09 4.09 6%
31 DET MIN 54.5 6.5 30.5 2.3 1.2 0.10 3.97 3%
32 JAC @IND 50 14 32 2 1.3 0.11 3.45 1%

Takes

  1. BAL at CIN: The Bengals popped off for 37 points last week, crossing that crucial 35-point mark to give defenses the worst possible score in fantasy. I don’t think it’s really much reason for the Ravens to worry, though. The Bengals’ explosion came against Houston, a bottom-five defense. The Ravens, in contrast, are one of the better defenses in the league.
  2. IND vs. JAC: Gardner Minshew was benched once again (and the Jets won), guaranteeing that Trevor Lawrence will be the Jaguars’ quarterback in 2021. In his stead, Mike Glennon threw two interceptions and led the Jags to just 17 points. The Colts are playing for a playoff spot and have one of the best defenses in the league. There’s nothing not to like here.
  3. LAC at KC: You read that right, my third-ranked defense is the team facing Kansas City, which usually occupies the bottom spot in my rankings. Chad Henne is starting, and fortunately, we have quite a bit of data on him — he had about four seasons’ worth of starts in Miami and Jacksonville between 2008 and 2014. His career interception rate (1.18/gm) is as good (for the opposing defense) as anyone starting this week, and his rate of 2.8 sacks per game comes close, too.
  4. NE vs. NYJ: There’s not much left to say about the Jets. They’ve allowed the most points to opposing fantasy defenses of any offense this year. The Patriots have their own problems on offense, but they’re certainly good enough (that is, below average, but not way below average) to take advantage on defense.
  5. SEA at SF: C.J. Beathard played great in his first start of the season to upset the Cardinals last week. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a third-string quarterback or that we should have any expectation of him repeating the performance against Seattle. For The Seahawks’ part, they’re on a five-game streak of holding the opposing offense to under 21 points.
  6. DAL at NYG: Daniel Jones threw his first touchdown since Week 9 last week. He also took six sacks for the second week in a row. The Giants are an excellent matchup, but the Cowboys have a below-average defense. That doesn’t mean I’m not willing to start them in a matchup this good, but that’s why they didn’t make it into my top tier.
  7. ARI at LAR: Jared Goff is out this week, as he underwent surgery to repair a broken thumb on this throwing hand. With all the uncertainty around teams that might sit their starters this week, we can be sure that the Rams will start John Wolford in his first NFL game since being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2018.
  8. LAR vs. ARI: It’s unclear if Kyler Murray will be able to play this week after injuring his leg. The Vegas lines appear to think he won’t; otherwise, the Rams being favored this week without their own quarterback is absurd. I’m skeptical — with both teams playing to get into the playoffs, I expect Murray to play if it’s at all possible. If that happens, the Rams will drop out of my top 10, but if the books are right and Murray sits, the Rams are a pretty good play.
  9. CLE vs. PIT: While it’s not confirmed, I feel reasonably confident that the Steelers will sit their stars. They can’t earn a bye with a win, and they can’t do worse than the third seed with a loss.
  10. NO at CAR: The Panthers snapped a long losing streak last week, but they did it with only 20 points. The Saints have one of the best defenses in the league, so another 20 points – which Vegas is projecting – seems optimistic.

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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.

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