Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing entrants in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the ‘More or Less’ contests. In these contests, you can choose whether a player will fall above or below totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals, and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at two of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 15. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
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Tyreek Hill (WR – KC): 85.5 receiving yards
Tyreek Hill is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. He has recorded 89.1 receiving yards per game on the season. However, he has crossed 86 receiving yards in just five of his 13 contests this season. I chose this thinking that over would likely be the play, but his season trends and opponent should make us think twice.
Tyreeek is going to be facing off with top corner Marshon Lattimore for most of the contest. What does this mean? Tyreek has played four games against top corners this season: Xavien Howard, Tre’Davious White, Stephon Gilmore, and Marcus Peters. In those games, he recorded 79, 20, 64, and 77 receiving yards respectively. If he keeps up this theme he is going to fall under against the Saints.
With that said, Patrick Mahomes may be forced to lean on Tyreek, if the Saints choose to bracket Kelce in man. Kelce is much, much better against some coverage, and as a result, Tyreek may see more passes funneled his way.
Lattimore is still one of the top corners in the league, but is not quite playing at the Pro Bowl level he was last season. He has personally allowed more than 93 receiving yards in coverage in three separate contests this season. Click ‘Less’ if trends are your friend, press ‘More’ if analysis means more.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR – NO): 60.5 receiving yards
Emmanuel Sanders at 60.5 receiving yards seems like an early holiday gift from MKF. Michael Thomas has been ruled out, and Drew Brees will be under center for Week 15. These two factors alone should have Sanders in the 70’s.
Sanders has averaged 72.3 receiving yards per game when Michael Thomas has been sidelined this season, and those numbers include a dud and contests with Taysom Hill at quarterback. He has seen a 22.8 percent target share and has received 33.3 percent of the team’s air yards in those contests.
Sanders has crossed 60.5 receiving yards just three times in his 11 contests this season, but again, analyzing this receiving yard number needs to factor in the return of Brees and the absence of Thomas. Clicking ‘More’ for Sanders is all about the correlative factors, but it is also interesting to note that Sanders has averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game against his former divisional rival.
Sanders knows the Chiefs better than most opponents, something that should help him as he is forced to contend with number one corner Bashaud Breeland. Breeland was excellent in coverage until last week when Tua Tagovailoa dropped a season-high 87 yards on him in coverage. He is a good corner but is probably better suited for the number two role he played last season. Press ‘More’ for Sanders for Week 15.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
