We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 13.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 13 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

 
Justin Herbert (LAC – QB): OVER 265.5 Passing Yards
There is a lot of speculation of how well Justin Herbert will fare this week, given Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s reputation for shutting down rookie quarterbacks. Considering Herbert has gone under this projected total just twice in 10 games, this would take a dominant effort from the Patriots defense to prevent the over from hitting. Herbert has thrown for at least 316 yards in three of his last four games and has attempted at least 42 passes in five of the last six. With New England’s offense not scaring anyone nowadays, there will be no reason for a ball-control offense to keep them off the field. Look for Herbert to continue his aerial assault.

Michael Thomas (NO – WR): OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
In the last two games Taysom Hill has started at quarterback, Michael Thomas has totaled 104 and 50 yards receiving, respectively. Those 104 yards came against the Atlanta Falcons, who he matches up again with this week. Thomas was targeted a team-high 12 times in that game, and his target share over the last two games is an astounding 46.2%. Hill may not throw it as much as Drew Brees does, but he tends to look for Thomas when he does, which is what any smart quarterback would do. There will certainly be some adjustments from Atlanta’s defense this time around, but 60+ yards for a receiver as talented as Thomas is more than achievable.

Brandin Cooks (HOU – WR): OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards
Perhaps no one will benefit more statistically from the suspension of teammate Will Fuller V than Brandin Cooks. Even with Fuller on the field, Cooks was already becoming a favorite target of quarterback Deshaun Watson. Cooks has totaled 83+ yards receiving in four of his last five games, with the lone exception being the heavy wind game in Cleveland that wreaked havoc on each team’s passing attack. With Fuller gone, Cooks is a good bet for double-digit targets, and there is no reason he cannot produce the 80+ yards that he has done so often of late.

Justin Jefferson (MIN – WR): OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
In teammate Adam Thielen’s absence last week, Justin Jefferson caught seven of 13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns. While many will view Thielen’s return as a hindrance to Jefferson’s upside, he should also take away any double teams the Jaguars’ defense would have thrown at him. Thielen has primarily been a red-zone target of late, but the Vikings have used Jefferson all over the field. He should feast against Jacksonville’s 29th-ranked pass defense that allows 279.5 YPG.

Tyreek Hill (KC – WR): OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards
Tyreek Hill is coming off one of the best games for a wide receiver of all time. His 13-catch, 269-yard, and three-touchdown effort last week against Tampa Bay was nothing sort of sensational. The speedster has a ridiculous 47 targets over the last three games, and he has 98 or more yards receiving in each of his last four. He faces a Denver defense that “bottled him up” for 55 yards in Week 7, though he did have six catches. Given how easily Hill has broken free from defenses of late, another six-catch effort should easily see him go over this projected total.

Jordan Wilkins (IND – RB): OVER 16.5 Rushing Yards
The Colts’ backfield has been a mess to figure out all season, and it figures to be even messier after activating Jonathan Taylor from the reserve/COVID-19 list. According to head coach Frank Reich, Jordan Wilkins was “banged up” after their Week 12 loss to the Titans. You should monitor his status before making this bet. If he plays, he should not need more than four to five touches to surpass this total. In a game where they are projected to lead late, that could easily happen.

Alvin Kamara (NO – RB): OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara is so dynamic that his projected receiving total is more than many running backs’ rushing total. Kamara has seen just three total targets over the last two games, as the offensive philosophy has completely shifted with Taysom Hill under center. Kamara had just one target in their first meeting with Atlanta two weeks ago, but head coach Sean Payton is a smart guy and will likely adopt a completely new game plan that features Kamara in the passing game this time around.

Emmanuel Sanders (NO – WR): OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards
Emmanuel Sanders is another Saints receiver impacted by Hill replacing Brees under center. The good news is that in the team’s first game against Atlanta, Sanders had 66 yards on four catches. He would have had a much bigger day if not for a 57-yard touchdown being called back by a penalty. The Falcons have been surprisingly good against the run this season, ranking sixth overall with just 100.3 YPG allowed. Thus, a heavier than usual passing game may be in order for Hill, and Sanders is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

D.K. Metcalf (SEA – WR): OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards
If you have watched the Seattle Seahawks this season, you would know how uncoverable D.K. Metcalf seems at times. Though he will likely draw shadow coverage from the Giants’ best cover cornerback in James Bradberry, Metcalf is nearly matchup proof. His only down games have come in three divisional matchups against the Cardinals and Rams, where he tussled with Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey. The Giants’ unfamiliarity with Metcalf’s ability should mean he is in store for a big day. Metcalf has not had fewer than 92 yards in a non-divisional game the season.

Brandon Allen (CIN – QB): OVER 210.5 Passing Yards
There is not a lot of confidence in the Bengals’ offense as a whole this week, as the Miami Dolphins are the biggest favorites they have been since 2003. However, big spreads mean more of a likelihood for blowouts, and negative game scripts are a recipe for compiling tons of late yardage. Brandon Allen had just 136 passing yards in his first start against the Giants, but he should be more comfortable leading this offense in his second start.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.