Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets On DraftKings (Week 14)
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 14.
Taysom Hill (NO – QB): UNDER 215.5 Passing Yards
We can throw Taysom Hill’s game against the Denver Broncos out as that game was played under very unusual circumstances with Denver without an eligible quarterback. In the other two games, Hill has averaged 232.5 passing yards per game in relief of the injured Drew Brees. However, both of those games were against the Atlanta Falcons in a dome, while the Philadelphia Eagles defense in the bitter cold presents a much tougher challenge. The Eagles have allowed the 23rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While one should not harp too much on Hill’s statistics in the Denver game, perhaps the Saints will follow a similarly conservative game script seeing as Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts is making his first career start. All of these factors will lead to a much quieter passing day for Hill than he is projected.
Justin Herbert (LAC – QB): OVER 274.5 Passing Yards
Many were down on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert last week as he faced Bill Belichick who historically has shut down rookie quarterbacks in his coaching career. Herbert’s 209 passing yards were his second-lowest of the season and will look to bounce back against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th against the pass allowing 285.3 YPG. This is a great buy-low spot for Herbert who needs four touchdowns to tie Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 set in 2018.
A.J. Brown (TEN- WR): OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
If Jaguars cornerback C.J. Henderson is not activated of IR for this game, the Jaguars will once again be without their top two cornerbacks. A.J. Brown has surpassed this projected total in four of his last five games and would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Jacksonville loads the box to try and stop Tennessee’s Derrick Henry. Brown missed the first game against the Jaguars in Week 2, but torched them for 135 yards on four catches the last time he was healthy against them.
Mike Glennon (JAC – QB): UNDER 269.5 Passing Yards
With a projected total of 52.5 points, the Titans-Jaguars game has the potential to turn into a shootout. However, the Jaguars coaching staff must realize that a shootout plays into Tennessee’s hands, so look for more of a ball-control game plan from Jacksonville to limit the Titans’ possessions. Mike Glennon barely surpassed this projected total against the 27th-ranked Vikings pass defense, though this week’s matchup against the 28th-ranked Titans defense looks just as enticing. However, Glennon had an overtime possession to pad his stats last week, as well as a two-minute drill where Minnesota played soft coverage. Glennon’s output should be closer to the 235 yards he threw for against Cleveland instead of what he ended up with last week.
Brandon Allen (CIN – QB): UNDER 215.5 Passing Yards
Brandon Allen has thrown for 289 yards combined in his first two starts, so why should we be convinced he will break this projected total? Granted, Dallas’s defense is not as imposing as Miami’s or New York’s, but the Cowboys do rank sixth against the pass allowing just 215.8 YPG through the air. The Cowboys were just gashed for 294 rushing yards by the Baltimore Ravens. While Cincinnati does not possess a running quarterback like Lamar Jackson, the Bengals will likely try to impose their will on the ground first and not let Allen attempt more than the 24 passes he has averaged through the first two games.
Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB): UNDER 315.5 Passing Yards
Betting against Aaron Rodgers in Detroit’s dome with a game total of 54.5 points seems blasphemous. However, he has surpassed this total just three times in the past eight games and is facing the division rival Lions for the second time in a season which tends to lead to lower scoring games. In addition, Green Bay’s blueprint in their first meeting was to pound Detroit with a steady dose of Aaron Jones, who ran for 168 yards and averaged 9.3 YPC. While Rodgers would love a big day statistically to keep him in the MVP race, he is much more concerned with getting a win that would help them inch closer to winning an NFC North title. Rodgers has topped 300 yards just once in his last four starts against the Lions, so we are getting good odds on a contrarian play that he will not top that mark again.
Tom Brady (TB – QB): UNDER 302.5 Passing Yards
The Buccaneers likely spent most of their bye week trying to figure out how to improve offensively and specifically become a more balanced football team. Tom Brady has topped 300 yards passing just twice in the last five games, but the more troublesome statistic is his seven interceptions in the last four games. Head coach Bruce Arians has hinted that running back Ronald Jones needs to get 20+ touches more often, and perhaps that happens against a Vikings team that might be facing a big deficit early if Tampa Bay looks sharp in their first game back.
Rob Gronkowski (TB – TE): OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards
While Tampa Bay may employ a more conservative and balanced game plan this week, that does not mean tight end Rob Gronkowski cannot be in store for a big day. He faces a Vikings defense that gives up the 19th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. In addition, Minnesota will be without their leading tackler and best linebacker in coverage in Eric Kendricks who has been ruled out for this game with a calf injury. Gronk has 44 or more receiving yards in two of his last three games and is a good bet to surpass this total given the circumstances.
Keenan Allen (LAC – WR): OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
Keenan Allen may be a forgotten man from a fantasy perspective after a few recent quiet weeks. Allen has just 88 combined receiving yards in his last two games and has been held to 48 or fewer yards in three of his last four games. Despite these modest totals, he still has double-digit targets in six of his last seven games. In addition, the Dolphins and Bills limited him with two of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the league. The Atlanta Falcons do not possess anyone nearly as talented in coverage as Miami’s Xavien Howard or Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White.
Keelan Cole Sr. (JAC – WR): OVER 29.5 Passing Yards
Keelan Cole Sr. has seen five or more targets in three of his last four games and has beaten this projected total twice in that span. Tennessee’s 28th-ranked pass defense is beatable and their secondary has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Cole beat Tennessee for 58 yards and one touchdown on six catches in Week 2 and is a good bet to surpass this modest total once again even if his quarterback is different this time around.
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