Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets On FanDuel (Week 14)
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 14.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN – QB): OVER 240.5 Passing Yards
Ryan Tannehill has surpassed this total in two of the last three games despite facing three consecutive tough defenses in the Ravens, Colts, and Browns. Tannehill now gets a 29th-ranked Jaguars defense that allows 279.1 passing YPG. He threw for 239 yards against them in Week 2 despite attempting 24 passes. In the lone game he was healthy against Jacksonville last year, he threw for 259 yards on just 18 pass attempts. There is a risk that this game turns into a blowout and Tannehill does not have to throw much, but we have seen his ability to rack up big yardage totals on minimal attempts.
Taysom Hill (NO – QB): UNDER 205.5 Passing Yards
We can throw Taysom Hill’s game against the Denver Broncos out as that game was played under very unusual circumstances with Denver without an eligible quarterback. In the other two games, Hill has averaged 232.5 passing yards per game in relief of the injured Drew Brees. However, both of those games were against the Atlanta Falcons in a dome, while the Philadelphia Eagles defense in the bitter cold presents a much tougher challenge. The Eagles have allowed the 23rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While one should not harp too much on Hill’s statistics in the Denver game, perhaps the Saints will follow a similarly conservative game script seeing as Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts is making his first career start. All of these factors will lead to a much quieter passing day for Hill than he is projected.
Justin Herbert (LAC – QB): OVER 281.5 Passing Yards
Many were down on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert last week as he faced Bill Belichick who historically has shut down rookie quarterbacks in his coaching career. Herbert’s 209 passing yards were his second-lowest of the season and will look to bounce back against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th against the pass allowing 285.3 YPG. This is a great buy-low spot for Herbert who needs four touchdowns to tie Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 set in 2018.
Alex Smith (WAS – QB): OVER 222.5 Passing Yards
Alex Smith is grateful to be playing football again after a gruesome leg injury, but he must be even more excited to face his former team this week. Though the 49ers rank 11th against the pass this year, the Football Team should be employing a heavy pass attack this week now that leading rusher Antonio Gibson has been ruled out with a toe injury. Smith has thrown for at least 296 yards in three of his five starts and will look to build off the team’s best effort in knocking off the previously unbeaten Steelers last week.
Duke Johnson (HOU – RB): UNDER 39.5 Rushing Yards
Duke Johnson will once again take over the lead duties now that teammate David Johnson has been placed on the reserve-COVID 19 list. Despite what should be a heavier workload on paper, the Texans have not been making a concerted effort to run the football of late. David Johnson received just 10 touches in his first game back, while Duke Johnson received 19 total carries in his last two games as the starter. He averaged just 26 rushing YPG in those last two games with David Johnson sidelined, so do not be tempted to fall into the trap of loving his over this week simply because he does not have as much competition for touches.
Sam Darnold (NYJ – QB): UNDER 225.5 Passing Yards
As 13.5 point road underdogs against Seattle this week, the Jets should be facing a negative game script for much of the game. In addition, they are facing the league’s worst pass defense that allows 309.8 YPG. However, none of that should matter for Sam Darnold as he has topped this projected total just once in his eight starts. For as much maligned as Seattle’s defense has been, they have defended the pass well against the Cardinals, Eagles, and Giants the last three weeks. In addition, former Jets safety Jamal Adams is now a Seahawk and will likely be a key cog in team meetings this week as he will have some inside information for the rest of Seattle’s secondary on the intricacies of the Jets playbook.
Jalen Hurts (PHI – QB): OVER 210.5 Passing Yards
Whereas one can rely on past data to formulate a guess on a player’s projected prop totals, it remains a mystery how Philadelphia will use Jalen Hurts in his first start at quarterback. One thing that cannot be denied is how stout the New Orleans Saints are against the run, as they rank second in the league allowing just 76.1 yards per game. While Hurts should be able to inject life in Philadelphia’s read-option attack, the fact is that he will have to throw the ball early and often for the best chance at success. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson does not mind airing it out, and the possibility of a negative game script is another reason to like the over.
Josh Allen (BUF – QB): UNDER 267.5 Passing Yards
Bills quarterback Josh Allen comes in hot off a 375 yard and four-touchdown performance on Monday night against the 49ers. However, he faces a much different challenge in the second-ranked pass defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. Allen has faced three other top-10 pass defenses this year in the Rams, Chargers, and Patriots. In those games, he has averaged 207.3 YPG and has topped 30 pass attempts just once. It seems that head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll tend to get more conservative with their play-calling in these situations, so another risk-averse game plan should be in store on Sunday night.
Braxton Berrios (NYJ – WR): UNDER 39.5 Receiving Yards
While the rest of this list is littered with big-name quarterbacks and running backs, money can be made on betting on more under-the-radar players just the same. We already talked about our lack of faith in the Jets passing game when previewing Sam Darnold’s outlook, and that will trickle down to Jets slot receiver Braxton Berrios. Berrios has been overlooked now that Jamison Crowder is healthy and manning the slot. He has just four total catches over the last four weeks and has not topped 40 yards since Week 3. This is a no-brainer play if you can still find these odds available.
Brandon Allen (CIN – QB): UNDER 212.5 Passing Yards
Brandon Allen has thrown for 289 yards combined in his first two starts, so why should we be convinced he will break this projected total? Granted, Dallas’s defense is not as imposing as Miami’s or New York’s, but the Cowboys do rank sixth against the pass allowing just 215.8 YPG through the air. The Cowboys were just gashed for 294 rushing yards by the Baltimore Ravens. While Cincinnati does not possess a running quarterback like Lamar Jackson, the Bengals will likely try to impose their will on the ground first and not let Allen attempt more than the 24 passes he has averaged through the first two games.
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