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Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets on FanDuel (Week 15)

by Mike Spector | Featured Writer
Dec 19, 2020

Just five weeks ago, Justin Jefferson torched the Bears secondary for 135 yards

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 15.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 15 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Drew Brees (NO – QB): OVER 242.5 Passing Yards
Head coach Sean Payton announced that Drew Brees is healthy enough to start after injuries to his ribs and lung forced him to miss four games. Conventional wisdom would suggest that this would be a heavy running attack in his first game back, but unfortunately, he may be forced to throwing more than he wants to so as to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs offense. Not having star wide receiver Michael Thomas will hurt, but Brees managed just fine in Weeks 2-8 without him when he topped this projected total in each of those games.

Nick Mullens (SF – QB): OVER 237.5 Passing Yards
Nick Mullens has surpassed this projected passing total in each of the last five games, despite facing three of the league’s top four stingiest pass defenses in the Rams, Saints, and Washington. By comparison, facing a Cowboys defense that ranks sixth against the pass should seem like a walk in the park. Many teams choose to attack Dallas on the ground as they rank dead-last allowing 162.7 rushing YPG. However, Kyle Shanahan is an aggressive play-caller who likes to air it out no matter the matchup. 49ers pass catchers have averaged 6.3 YAC since Week 9, which is sixth-most in the NFL. The Dallas defense has allowed 5.3 YAC which is tied for fourth-worst in that span. In addition, Dallas has been susceptible to the big play as they have allowed 20+ yards on 10% of opposing teams’ pass attempts since Week 9, which is tied for eighth-worst in the league. There is a lot to like about Mullens’ projections even if they find success on the ground.

Dwayne Haskins (WAS – QB): UNDER 219.5 Passing Yards
As the starter from Weeks 1-4, Dwayne Haskins’ yardage totals increased each of the four weeks. However, after the team got off to a 1-3 start the coaching staff decided it was time to make a switch. Haskins clearly does not have the confidence of head coach Ron Rivera, and it will show with their game plan this week. In an effort to keep Seattle’s high-powered offense off the field, look for a conservative game plan with short throws and for Washington to rely on their stout defense to keep them in this game.

Cam Sims (WAS – WR): OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards
Cam Sims followed up a nine-target and 92-yard receiving day against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a two-target and eight-yard dud against San Francisco. However, a bounce-back game should be in order against a weak Seahawks defense that will be keying in on Terry McLaurin. Sims has had four or more targets in three of the last six weeks, so it does not take a lot of looks to surpass this total.

Justin Jefferson (MIN – WR): OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards
Just five weeks ago, Justin Jefferson torched the Bears secondary for 135 yards on eight catches. While that should also earn him more defensive attention, Chicago will also have their hands full with Adam Thielen who scored two touchdowns on them in that same game. The Bears had relative success against Dalvin Cook in their first matchup, holding him to a season-low 3.2 yards per attempt. If they have similar success this time around, look for Minnesota to get more aggressive than usual which should result in another double-digit target day for Jefferson.

Kyler Murray (ARI – QB): UNDER 262.5 Passing Yards
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has not topped 244 yards passing ever since he injured his shoulder four weeks ago against the Seahawks. While he has 34 or more attempts in his last three games, those attempts are not leading to huge shots downfield, which may be an indication he is still hampered. Add in the fact that they face a stout Eagles front that will force him to get the ball out quickly, and that the Eagles’ read-option run-first scheme with Jalen Hurts under center will limit possessions. Thus, Murray’s ceiling is limited for yet another week.

Baker Mayfield (CLE – QB): OVER 228.5 Passing Yards
Though the Browns have the league’s third-best rushing attack, that has also helped to open things up in the passing game. Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 258 yards in three straight games, and head coach Kevin Stefanski’s trust in him seems to grow by the week. Mayfield will benefit from the absence of Giants cornerback James Bradberry, who will miss the game after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Browns are coming off a physical Monday night game against the Ravens, so perhaps they allow Mayfield to increase his attempted passes for the sixth straight week.

Logan Thomas (WAS – TE): OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
Logan Thomas has had at least five targets or 40 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games. He is becoming more of a focal point of this offense each week and led the team in both targets and yards last week against the 49ers. With a more conservative game plan likely with Dwayne Haskins as starting quarterback this week, look for Thomas to benefit from the shorter throws and check downs.

Sam Darnold (NYJ – QB): UNDER 202.5 Passing Yards
The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed a league-low 6.06 yards per attempt and 3.06 percent touchdown rate, so there is not much to like in this matchup for Sam Darnold. His yardage total has decreased each of the last three weeks, posting a high of 197 yards in that span. With as many negative game scripts as the Jets face, it is a wonder why Darnold cannot capitalize statistically. He has yet to top 30 pass attempts in any of the last five games as their defense struggles to get off the field. With the Rams capable of a ball-control offense with many sustained drives, Darnold may once again not have much of an opportunity to accumulate decent numbers.

Jared Goff (LAR – QB): OVER 269.5 Passing Yards
Jared Goff is one of the toughest quarterbacks to figure out of late. He has been held under 200 yards in two of his last three games, but in his last four other games, he has topped 300 yards. The Rams are going to score points against the Jets, so whether or not Goff tops this projected total depends on how quickly they get up big and how much head coach Sean McVay wants to continue to lean on the running game. The best bet is that McVay looks to keep running back Cam Akers fresh for the stretch run, as he has carried the ball 50 times over the last two weeks. Thus, look for Goff to be the biggest reason they pile up the points early en route to a big passing day.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week >>

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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