Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 14 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Week 13 was an absolute disaster for my seemingly safe “Blue Chip” plays. Outside of Travis Kelce (TE2, 23.6 FanDuel points), all three of Patrick Mahomes (QB15, 19.32), Derrick Henry (RB38, 5.4), and Tyreek Hill (WR37, 11.8) were massive disappointments in smash spots. However, my “Penny Stock” plays came to the rescue with big-time performances. Kirk Cousins (QB12, 22.4) and Jordan Reed (TE9, 10.7) tapped into their underpriced upside with top-12 finishes, drastically outperforming their price tags. Most notable, however, was David Montgomery (RB1, 25.1), who finished as the overall RB1. Any time a Penny Stock play finishes as the top player at his position, I’m calling it a good week. Entering Week 14, I’m looking to continue this Penny Stock hot streak while improving on my success rate at the Blue Chip and Mid Cap levels.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 14 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 14.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 14 and beyond!
Blue Chip: Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. Atlanta ($8,300) – Last week was a disaster for Herbert, I get it. But there is not a better matchup for the rookie to right the ship than the Falcons, who are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Mid-Cap: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs. Jacksonville ($7,900) – Fresh off a 389-yard, 3TD Week 13 performance, Tannehill takes on a Jaguars defense giving up the 4th-most fantasy points to enemy signal-callers. With an implied team total of 30 points, I expect Tannehill and the Titans to have an absolute field day in Week 14.
Penny Stock: Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. New Orleans ($6,600) – There is no better cheat code in fantasy than a quarterback who can run the football. In limited action, Hurts has impressed through the air as well. Now officially the Eagles’ starter, there isn’t a quarterback in his DFS price range with more upside in Week 14.
Blue Chip: James Robinson (JAC) vs. Tennessee ($8,000) – Robinson has been an absolute workhorse this season, averaging over 17 carries and 4 targets per game. With 9 touchdowns to boot, the sky is the limit for the Jaguars’ UDFA against a weak Titans’ run defense.
Mid-Cap: David Montgomery (CHI) vs. Houston ($6,600) – While he has graduated from my Penny Stock slot, Montgomery continues to be a staple on Ball Street given his disrespectfully low price tag. In addition to seeing the lion’s share of Chicago’s running back carries, Montgomery is averaging over 5 targets per game since Week 4. He is a no-brainer RB play against an abysmal Texans run defense.
Penny Stock: Wayne Gallman (NYG) vs. Arizona ($6,000) – Gallman has quietly taken over as the Giants’ featured back with rush counts of 14, 18, 24, and 16 over the last four weeks. Despite having 2 touchdowns vultured by Alfred Morris in Week 13, Gallman offers tantalizing upside against a beatable Cardinals defense.
Blue Chip: Davante Adams (GB) vs. Detroit ($9,600) – As I like to say, Adams in your lineup is money in your pocket. This is especially true against a weak Lions secondary where the Packers sport a league-leading implied point total of 32. With an average of 24 FanDuel points per game over his last 7 weeks, Adams is worth every penny and then some.
*Mid-Cap: Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs. Buffalo ($6,800) – Is it just me or does FanDuel refuse to acknowledge Diontae Johnson as Pittsburgh’s clear-cut WR1? Despite seeing double-digit targets in every full game he’s played this season, Johnson is priced at his floor entering Week 14. Big Ben’s go-to target offers WR1 upside in what could end up as a high-scoring affair with the Bills. *Johnson is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups!
Penny Stock: T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. Las Vegas ($6,000) – Coming off his first 100-yard performance of the season, it would appear Hilton is finally finding his chemistry with Philip Rivers. With a touchdown to his name in two straight games, Hilton is a great play in what should be a shootout with the Raiders.
Blue Chip: Darren Waller (LV) vs. Indianapolis ($7,100) – After putting up a mind-boggling 38.5 FanDuel points in Week 13, it should come as no surprise that Waller sits atop this list as we enter Week 14. The seam-splitter should see plenty of looks from Derek Carr in a shootout that sports a 50.5-point over/under.
Mid-Cap: Mike Gesicki (MIA) vs. Kansas City ($5,700) – Gesicki finally broke out with a 19.3-point, overall TE4 performance in Week 13 with Tua Tagovailoa under center. Against the Chiefs, he’ll be a crucial piece to Miami’s passing attack while their offense aims to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.
Penny Stock: Logan Thomas (WAS) vs. San Francisco ($5,200) – Alex Smith has taken a liking to Logan Thomas since becoming Washington’s quarterback, resulting in a season-high 98 yards and a score for the tight end in Week 13. I like him to continue his upward trend against a 49ers defense that allowed Dawson Know a top-10 tight end performance on Sunday.
Ball Street’s Week 14 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Justin Herbert, $8,300
- RB – James Robinson, $8,000
- RB – David Montgomery, $6,600
- WR – Davante Adams, $9,600
- WR – Diontae Johnson, $6,800
- WR – T.Y. Hilton, $6,000
- TE – Logan Thomas, $5,200
- FLEX – Wayne Gallman, $6,000
- DEF – Houston, $3,400
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.