When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
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- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
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Games/Teams to Target
- Cleveland at Tennessee (Over/Under 54.0)
- Tennessee Team Total: 30.0
- Cleveland Team Total: 24.0
- Jacksonville at Minnesota (Over/Under 52.5)
- Minnesota Team Total: 31.25
- Jacksonville Team Total: 21.25
- Indianapolis at Houston (Over/Under 51.0)
- Indianapolis Team Total: 27.25
- Houston Team Total: 23.75
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona (Over/Under 47.5)
- Los Angeles Team Total: 25.75
- Arizona Team Total: 22.75
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN):$7,300 / Adam Thielen (WR – MIN): $7,800
I was very surprised with how far down I needed to scroll before I came across Kirk Cousins’ name for main slate quarterbacks in Week 13. Cousins has averaged 24 FanDuel fantasy points per game over his past two weeks. He just posted 26 fantasy points against Carolina as he threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns without his best weapon.
Cousins is priced at the same salary as struggling Carson Wentz of the Eagles, and he finds himself in a fantastic spot at home against a Jaguars defense that has been generous to opposing quarterbacks all year. The Vikings have the highest implied team total on the main slate with 31.25 points.
Rookie wideout Justin Jefferson ($7,700) has perhaps been the most impressive first-year wide receiver from a loaded 2020 class. With Adam Thielen on the COVID list, Jefferson took advantage of the bump in target share as he hauled in seven of thirteen targets for 70 yards and two receiving touchdowns in Week 12. While he will certainly be a great weapon for Cousins in Week 13, I’m choosing to go back to the veteran who was activated off the COVID list earlier this week.
The last time we saw Thielen, he caught eight of his eleven targets for two receiving touchdowns against a weak Dallas secondary. He should have no trouble getting open over the middle against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th against fantasy wide receivers. I expect Thielen to be owned at a lower percentage than Jefferson only because Jefferson has been excellent and was showcased last week.
It is not often that I would recommend a running back who plays for a 10 point road underdog. However, rookie running back James Robinson ($7,800) of the Jaguars has been fantastic despite his team being winless since Week 1. He has seen a historic rushing share, and he is involved in the passing game as well, making him viable even as a heavy underdog. He is my favorite bring-back player in this game that is the second-highest over/under on the main slate.
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN):$7,800 / A.J. Brown (WR – TEN): $8,200
Another quarterback on a run-first team who finds himself in a favorable matchup, Ryan Tannehill offers salary relief as he is $1200 cheaper than QB1 Russell Wilson on the main slate for FanDuel. Tannehill has had a career-resurgence after joining the Titans in 2019. He has 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions so far in 2020.
Cleveland offers more resistance against the run than they do through the air, as they rank just 20th as a pass defense. While Tennessee always emphasizes the ground game, Tannehill should benefit from play-action opportunities in a contest that features the highest over/under of the main slate with 54 points.
Second-year wideout A.J. Brown has proven himself to be one of the league’s best at creating yards after the catch. Seemingly on a weekly basis, there is a highlight of Brown scoring on a play in which he had no business doing so. He has eight receiving touchdowns on the season despite playing in just nine games due to injury.
Running back Nick Chubb ($8,700) carries an expensive salary for a running back who is not tremendously involved in the passing game, but he was worth the price in Week 12. After tallying 176 total yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars, he gets set to face another AFC South opponent in a favorable rushing matchup. After battling through awful weather for the greater part of month, we saw the Cleveland passing game rebound in sunny Florida in Week 12. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry ($6,000) had an excellent week with eight receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown, and he is a great bring-back option for this game that could turn into a shootout.
Mitchell Trubisky (QB – CHI):$6,900 / Allen Robinson (WR – CHI): $6,900
Before the salaries were released for Week 13, I was already eyeing this stack. Trubisky is less expensive than QBs like Carson Wentz, Derek Carr, and Jared Goff on FanDuel. Robinson is a full $2600 cheaper than WR1 Davante Adams on the main slate.
The Bears duo is coming off a great fantasy performance on Sunday night in a tough matchup against a strong Green Bay passing defense. However, most fans will remember the bad throws from Trubisky and the impressive display put on by the Packers offense. Most will not realize that Trubisky managed 242 passing yards and three touchdowns in an incredibly difficult matchup. He was limited to just 11 rushing yards, and we know he can offer more than that with his legs.
Robinson reminded us that he is one of the elite wide receivers in the league as he won time and time again against one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. He finished the game against Green Bay with eight receptions for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps most encouragingly, Trubisky made it a priority to target Robinson inside the redzone.
The Bears’ Week 13 matchup, the Detroit Lions, just cleaned house after their loss to Houston on Thanksgiving. They are currently the 24th toughest matchup against fantasy wide receivers, and are 26th against opposing quarterbacks. I would also like to point out this tweet from Nick Whalen, that highlights just how great Trubisky has been against Detroit in his career.
It's Mitchell Trubisky week!
Last 4 games against Detroit
'20 @ Det = 242 yards 3 TD 0 INT
'19 @ Det = 338 yards 3 TD 1 INT
'19 vs Det = 173 yards 3 TD 0 INT
'18 vs Det = 355 yards 3 TD 0 INTHe plays Detroit this week…
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) December 3, 2020
Running back D’Andre Swift ($6,800) should be able to return from injury after being close to playing on Thanksgiving. A Detroit team that is looking toward the future will certainly want to evaluate what they have in their rookie runner.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
