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Week 14 NFL DFS Stacking Advice (2020 Fantasy Football)

Week 14 NFL DFS Stacking Advice (2020 Fantasy Football)

Congrats to those of you who made the playoffs in your fantasy leagues! Whether you are competing this weekend or need to maintain your fantasy football rituals via DFS, this article will focus on some of our favorite early stacks for the main slate in Week 14.

When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:

    1. Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
    2. Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks

Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.

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Games/Teams to Target

  • Green Bay at Detroit (Over/Under 54.5)
    • Green Bay Team Total: 31.0
    • Detroit Team Total: 23.5
  • Tennessee at Jacksonville (Over/Under 54.0)
    • Tennessee Team Total: 30.75
    • Jacksonville Team Total: 23.25
  • Minnesota at Tampa Bay (Over/Under 52.5)
    • Tampa Bay Team Total: 29.5
    • Minnesota Team Total: 23.0
  • Atlanta at Los Angeles Chargers (Over/Under 50.0)
    • Atlanta Team Total: 26.25
    • Los Angeles Team Total: 23.75

DFS Stacks to Target

All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): $7,900 / Corey Davis (WR – TEN): $6,800
We have been targeting the Jacksonville “defense” all season long, and we are not going to stray away from this contest that has the second-highest over/under of the main slate at 54 points. When these AFC South foes met back in Week 2, 63 points were scored. Tannehill tossed four touchdowns in that game, including one to Davis.

In one of our favorite games to target in Week 13, Tannehill managed 28.56 FanDuel fantasy points as he threw for 389 yards and three scores in a loss vs. Cleveland. While there is always the possibility that Tennessee will lean heavily on RB Derrick Henry, Tannehill has thrived in play-action over the past two seasons. He should have plenty of time to find open receivers against a weak Jacksonville pass rush and secondary.

Corey Davis had a huge day against Cleveland, as he hauled in 11 of 12 targets for 182 receiving yards and a TD. A solid WR2 for most of the season, the former first-round NFL draft pick has began to flash his ability to be a dominant outside WR on Sundays. He offers salary relief when compared to his teammate WR A.J. Brown ($8,000) who is viewed as the WR1 in Tennesee despite target totals over the past month favoring Davis.

The formula has worked for a while, and there is no reason to stop now. While the Jacksonville passing attack has been spread out week to week, RB James Robinson ($8,000) continues to dominant backfield touches both on the ground and through the air. While it is rare to bring-it-back with an opposing RB who is an underdog, Robinson has been fantastic throughout the 2020 season despite his team still looking for its first win since Week 1. In addition to being heavily involved in the passing game, Robinson has no competition for goalline carries. And yes, the Jaguars should reach the redzone with an implied team total of 23.25 points.

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): $8,300 / Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): $8,500
One of my favorite stacks in both season-long leagues and DFS, the “Bolts” duo was not featured in this column last week. That turned out to be a good call, as Herbert finally looked like a rookie against Bill Belichick and the New England defense. I’m going right back to the former Oregon QB who has been nothing short of spectacular in his first NFL season since taking over the starting job.

FanDuel seems to believe in a rebound as well, as Herbert’s salary actually increased after his dreadful performance at home against New England in Week 13. There is reason to be optimistic about Herbert’s outlook for Week 14, as Atlanta has been a top-five matchup for opposing fantasy QBs all season long. While the rookie QB has been impressive against challenging defenses for the most part, he has also shown the ability to dominate poor pass defenses as evidenced by his 38 FanDuel fantasy points performance against Jacksonville.

Keenan Allen has been Herbert’s favorite target ever since the rookie took over the starting job, and he has reminded football fans of his ability as one of the elite WRs in this league. Even in the blowout loss to New England, Allen still managed 11 targets. He has seen double-digit targets in nine of ten complete games since Herbert started in Week 2. Sunday’s shutout loss to New England ended a five-game scoring streak for Allen, who should be able to get back on track against an Atlanta defense that is 29th against opposing fantasy WRs.

While QB Matt Ryan has struggled of late, his pass catchers have been able to get by on volume. WR Calvin Ridley ($8,100) is my favorite bring-back option, as he has seen at least nine targets in three straight games. In his career, Ridley has flourished in games in which he has seen at least eight targets. With an over/under of 50 points, there should be plenty of scoring in this game and the targets are rather concentrated in each passing game.

Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): $8,000 / Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): $6,900
In his first game without top WR Will Fuller V (suspended – PEDs), all Deshaun Watson did was throw for 341 yards against a very good Indianapolis defense. He was unlucky in the red zone and did not manage any passing TDs, which is the only reason that he did not surpass 21 FanDuel fantasy points.

I expect many DFS players to be scared off by the Chicago defense that is advertised as 8th best against opposing QBs on FanDuel. However, a quick review of their past few games reveals that they have been much more generous to opposing signal-callers than meets the eye. They allowed 402 yards and three TDs to Matthew Stafford, 211 yards and 4 TDs to Aaron Rodgers, and 292 yards and 2 TDs to Kirk Cousins. Watson is an elite QB who can be penciled in for around 300 passing yards even when missing key weapons.

With Fuller now done for the season, Brandin Cooks is in-line for an improvement on an already serviceable target share. Despite leaving the game to be evaluated for a concussion, Cooks still hauled in five of eight targets for 65 yards in the matchup against Indianapolis. Chicago has allowed some big games to opposing WRs recently, and Cooks could be the latest to post a slate-breaking line.

Houston has been a defense to target all season. Though they can also give it up through the air, the Houston run “defense” has been a get-right spot for many opposing RBs. Unfortunately for the Texans, opposing RB David Montgomery ($6,600) is coming off two strong performances already. He has posted 22+ FanDuel fantasy points in consecutive games, and the second-year RB is still flying relatively under the radar. His salary is far too cheap on FanDuel for the touches he is receiving both on the ground and in the receiving game. With RB Tarik Cohen done for the year with an injury, Montgomery has taken over the passing game work as well and has seen an average of five targets per game.

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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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