Well, we have officially arrived at Week 16. Yes, there is a whole other week in the NFL regular season following this one. Of course, we still have the playoffs which will feature an expanded field this year. There is still plenty of football to come, but Week 16 still signals the end of most of our fantasy seasons.
Hopefully, you are competing for some fantasy championships this week. Even if you fell short, our DFS coverage will continue on throughout the NFL playoffs, so there is still plenty of fantasy football to absorb into the new year.
When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
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- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Atlanta at Kansas City (Over/Under 53.5)
- Kansas City Team Total: 32.25
- Atlanta Team Total: 21.25
- Philadelphia at Dallas (Over/Under 49.5)
- Philadelphia City Team Total: 25.75
- Dallas Team Total: 23.75
- Denver at Los Angeles Chargers (Over/Under 48.5)
- Los Angeles Team Total: 26.0
- Denver Team Total: 22.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (Over/Under 47.5)
- Seattle Team Total: 24.5
- Los Angeles Team Total: 23.0
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
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Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): $7,600 / Rashard Higgins (WR – CLE): $5,800
DFS managers are going to look at the matchup and just insist that the Browns are going to rely on their run game to beat the Jets. However, is that not what was anticipated for the Week 15 matchup between the Rams and Jets? Los Angeles quickly had to pivot to a heavy passing attack as Jared Goff ended up with 34 passing attempts compared to 18 team rushes.
If managers will be on RB Nick Chubb ($9,000), then we have the opportunity to go contrarian with this first stack. The stack is not contrarian due to any poor play from QB Baker Mayfield. Over the last month, Mayfield is the QB3 in fantasy. Not bad for a perceived run-heavy team, right?
Mayfield has had some of his best outputs against above-average passing defenses, including a 31 FanDuel fantasy point outing against Baltimore and 29 points against Tennesee. He has ten passing touchdowns compared to just one interception, and he has added a rushing score as well.
While WR Jarvis Landry ($6,500) has also been solid over the last month, we can save some salary and go with the lesser-known Higgins for our contrarian stack. The fifth-year WR out of Colorado State has stepped into a larger role following the injury to WR Odell Beckham Jr. Higgins has seen an average of eight targets over his past three games, hauling in two TDs and racking up 239 receiving yards over that span. He has the ability to break a big play or two against this Jets defense while continuing to see steady volume.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): $9,400 / Travis Kelce (TE – KC): $8,800
While the first stack may be under the radar, this combo is anything but. However, the stack can still help us differentiate due to how restrictive it is on salary. This stack will force DFS managers to be creative with the rest of the lineup, especially if we bring it back with a particular pass-catcher on Atlanta.
There is no doubt that Mahomes and Kelce will need to have a monster game in order to pay off their salary. I think that is certainly on the table given the matchup. The Atlanta-Kansas City is the only game on the main slate that features an over/under greater than 50, currently sitting at 53.5 points. This is certainly a game to target, especially if player ownership percentages are lower due to the expensive salaries involved.
Not that Mahomes needs a positive matchup, but Atlanta has been the best matchup for fantasy QBs over the course of the entire season. Similarly, the Falcons are also a top-five matchup for opposing TEs. The stars are aligned for Mahomes and Kelce to carry plenty of fantasy owners to championships in Week 16. Kelce has scored more than 20 FanDuel fantasy points in five of his past seven games, which is simply an incredible advantage at the position. It’s been a few weeks since we have seen Mahomes eclipse 30 fantasy points, but we know that is always on the table, especially if he can reach the end zone with his legs for the first time since Week 5.
The best bring-back option for this game stack is also an expensive player, which can bring down the ownership percentage for this lineup as a whole. WR Calvin Ridley ($8,700) continues to crush in games in which he sees at least eight targets, which has been the case over his last five games. He has scored 22+ FanDuel fantasy points in each of his past two contests, and Matt Ryan clearly has no issue relying on his top pass catcher. This game should feature a lot of points as well as a negative game script for Atlanta, leading to plenty of volume for Ridley.
Jared Goff (QB – LAR): $7,400 / Robert Woods (WR – LAR): $7,300
Boy, that was an ugly home loss that gave the New York Jets their first win of the season. While the Rams were out of sorts in Week 15, I expect them to bounce back during the fantasy championship week. For one, they are competing for a playoff spot and cannot afford another letdown. Additionally, the players should get up for this divisional matchup against Seattle.
While the Rams always want to establish the run early, that could prove to be difficult against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the third-fewest opponent rushing yards per game in 2020. Instead, Seattle has been much more susceptible through the air. While Goff fell flat in Week 15, I have confidence in Sean McVay to scheme well enough to put Goff in a position to find his talented pass-catchers. Goff has topped 25 FanDuel fantasy points three times this season, and he could have a ceiling game in this matchup, especially if the scoring comes through the air.
Woods is the most obvious stacking option with Goff. While some of his production comes on the ground, the majority of his work will come through the air, making the stack a formidable option. Woods has usually had a higher floor than teammate WR Cooper Kupp ($6,800), but a case could be made that the former USC WR has a higher ceiling than Kupp as well. Woods has topped 24 FanDuel fantasy points twice this season, and he could have a great day against a Seattle team that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Seattle’s offensive struggles cannot be overstated. I certainly would not want to be forced to rely on QB Russell Wilson ($7,900) or any of his weapons to win me a fantasy championship against a Rams defense that is in the conversation for the best in the NFL. That being said, we cannot be scared of a low floor when entering DFS tournament lineups. Therefore, WR Tyler Lockett ($6,900) and WR D.K. Metcalf ($7,700) are in play as bring-back options. They are not likely to be popular with their salaries and the tough matchup for fantasy WRs. Therefore, I’ll only be playing them in lineups that feature a Rams-Seahawks game stack. In those spots, we can achieve some differentiation, and we know that both Lockett and Metcalf have as high a ceiling as any WRs in the league.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
