Much of my time writing for FantasyPros in 2020 has been spent questioning how much we should trust what we think we know. To unravel why we believe something is often a messy ordeal, subjugated by the unreliability of a first impression, the fragility of memory, or the misattribution of emotion. Did we arrive at a conclusion from a careful review of the facts? Or had we already cooked up a theory, and then went hunting for the data to substantiate it? To say it with the eloquence of nineteenth-century poet Andrew Lang, “people use statistics as a drunk uses lampposts – for support rather than illumination.” 

The power our minds have in filtering evidence that reinforces what we wish to believe is not a novel conversation topic in a year marred by politics and pandemics. Nor is there one exhaustive, unified theory that can explain why our minds unwittingly lead us to faulty conclusions in every instance. I’ve been writing on and off about this very subject for an entire football season, and I’ve barely scratched the surface. But there is one study, published in 2002, that I believe offers us an elegant little example of this phenomenon at work. 

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What did that study tell us? First, that people who believe in ghosts are more likely to see ghosts. And second, that people who were told that a paranormal encounter occurred at a location were more likely to report seeing paranormal activity at that location shortly thereafter. Our minds look for patterns where patterns may not exist. And once we believe something – or once we’re primed to believe it – we’re more apt to see it. 

For the first twelve weeks of the NFL season, Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton was the WR73. He compiled 408 receiving yards and one touchdown over that span – which isn’t great for a four-time Pro Bowler that had an ADP of WR26 before the season began. But over the past two weeks, Hilton has been the WR2, compiling 196 receiving yards and three touchdowns (44.1 fantasy points) in that timeframe. 

In response to these numbers, experts have generally decreed that Hilton has been revitalized. Beat reporters are telling us he’s back and coming up with reasons why it took so long for him to be an impact player. He’s within the top-20 wide receivers in most fantasy analysts’ Week 15 rankings. But here’s my question: why do we believe in him? 

It’s not like Hilton wasn’t already leading the Colts in targets before this surge (he was). Other receivers like Travis Fulgham and Marquez Valdes-Scantling also had two-week outputs of 40+ fantasy points in 2020, and neither player was even ranked within the top-30 in consensus rankings heading into the following week. And fellow Colts’ receiver Michael Pittman torched the Titans for 7 catches and 101 receiving yards in Week 10 (in a two-week span in which he accumulated 30 fantasy points) and was still ranked outside the top-35 heading into a Week 12 rematch with Tennessee. Why are we all so convinced that T.Y. Hilton is “back” ahead of his rematch with the Houston Texans in Week 15?

The answer is as simple as our propensity to spot the paranormal.

We believe in T.Y. Hilton. 

Sure, his last Pro Bowl appearance was in 2017 – but in our minds, he will always be a Pro Bowler. His name has been in our fantasy lexicons for most of this decade. He was drafted earlyish in 2020 fantasy leagues, further anchoring aspiration with performance. He was rostered for ten weeks by more fantasy managers than any other player that shared the reality of his stat sheet without the gravity of his name. 

We see the return of T.Y. Hilton because we already believed in T.Y. Hilton.

Now, here’s my surprising Act Three coda: I, too, believe in T.Y. Hilton. I can’t help but think that he’s a strong start against that shaky Texans’ secondary this week. Yes, he’s over-ranked. Yes, our reasoning for collectively over-ranking him is probably influenced by his name, by ancient history, or by sunk cost. But there’s humility in remembering that two things can be true. It’s possible that someone’s belief is based on flawed assumptions or familiarity bias; it’s also possible they’ll end up being right anyway. Understanding why our minds lead us astray doesn’t make us any less human: we can be aware of bias and prone to it all the same. 

The hope, of course, is that awareness might lead us to better decision-making in the future. The hope is that we can reconsider why we’re all so certain T.Y. Hilton is a strong start in Week 15, when other receivers have shared his two-week-stat-line but not his third-week-ranking. 

I like to think I don’t believe in ghosts. 

But that doesn’t mean I still won’t see one.  

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David Giardino is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @davidgiardino.