DraftKings DFS NBA Advice: Sunday (1/17)
With the blockbuster James Harden trade now complete, it’s only a matter of time before the other shoe drops and another big-name player gets shopped. Maybe Bradley Beal is up next? Who knows. Regardless, trade speculation won’t help us win tonight’s DFS contests.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.
- We’re on a short slate tonight, and I like Malcolm Brogdon for the Victor Oladipo-less Pacers. Despite the game’s low projected total, the Clippers give up the eighth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing point guards, and I’m optimistic that Brogdon can hit value.
- I’m targeting Pelicans and Kings in what could be a high-scoring game tonight — the matchup has the slate’s highest projected total (226.5), and with Lonzo Ball sidelined, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has some juicy upside — especially since the Kings give up the most DKPPG to the position.
- I don’t love Patrick Beverley tonight, but it’s a small slate, and he’s a decent floor play if you’re spending down at guard.
- With Rudy Gobert facing off against Nikola Jokic, expect most of the Jazz’s scoring to come outside of the paint. That’s great news for Donovan Mitchell, especially since the Nuggets give up the fourth-most DKPPG to shooting guards. If you remember how these teams played each other in last year’s playoffs, you know why I’m so excited about Mitchell.
- Oladipo is gone, and Caris LeVert may not be able to play for a while. That’ll leave Aaron Holiday with expanded minutes, and he scored 42.5 DK points in 28 minutes last Tuesday.
- Again, expect to see lots of Pelicans and Kings today. JJ Redick should feast off the bench against Sacramento, as they give up the most DKPPG to shooting guards. He’s also averaging 22 DKPPG over his last three, which is more than 5x value at this price.
- Here’s our first King of the slate. Harrison Barnes should exploit the Pelicans’ seventh-worst defense against small forwards, and he may have to play some extra minutes if Marvin Bagley III can’t dress.
- Darius Bazley is still a value play at this price point, and he’ll have an easy task against a thin Sixers team that was already giving up the fifth-most DKPPG to small forwards.
- Here’s a contrarian pivot — Matisse Thybulle played only 20 minutes last night, but with the Sixers on a back-to-back, he’s one of their fresher players heading into tonight’s contest. He could be worth a flier from his minimum price point.
- I like Tobias Harris tonight. A lot. He only played 32 minutes last night, fewer than teammates Shake Milton (33), Danny Green (36), Dwight Howard (34), and Ben Simmons (36), and he could be asked to do more this evening. Also, the Thunder allow the second-most points to opposing power forwards!
- I don’t love Bojan Bogdanovic, but he has 30-plus point upside, which is more than enough for him to hit value here.
- You should only fire up Nemanja Bjelica if news breaks that Marvin Bagley III won’t play — or that he’ll face a minutes restriction.
- I have a hard time evaluating center tonight. Since Jokic and Gobert could cancel each other out — and since they’re both so expensive — I’ll map out my favorite pivots. I like the idea of using Zion Williamson at center, instead of power forward, to fill this gap. I will like that idea even more if Bagley can’t play.
- Steven Adams is another strong option at center. The Kings give up the third-most DKPPG to the position, and since this should be one of the slate’s higher-scoring games, I don’t mind using him instead of Zion.
- I hate the idea of starting Dwight Howard tonight. The 35-year-old just played 34 minutes, so there’s no way that he’ll get that much run again. That said, he turned those 34 minutes into 8 points and 18 rebounds, so I am obligated to mention him, given his price. He’s a risky option because of his age, but the Sixers don’t have enough depth to rest him.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $8,700 at LAC: I’ve outlined why I like Brogdon above, but if you’re still not convinced, he’s averaging 45.9 DKPPG over his last three, which is more than 5x value.
- Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $8,500 at DEN: Mitchell went off against the Nuggets in last year’s playoffs, as he scored 50-plus points twice and 30-plus points five times. That’ll translate into oodles of DraftKings points tonight.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $8,300 vs. PHI: I like SGA against a depleted Sixers squad that gives up the 10th-most DKPPG to the position. We may not see a ton of points scored, but SGA will have to do most of the work himself.
- Tobias Harris (PHI) $7,800 at OKC: Again, I’m a big fan of Harris here at this price point. He’s one of the fresher Sixers for tonight’s game.
- Jamal Murray (DEN) $7,400 vs. UTH: Murray also went off when these teams met in the playoffs last season. Like Mitchell, he scored 50-plus points twice, and he ended up with 30-plus points four times.
Notable Players to Fade
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,200 vs. UTH: Jokic has been incredible this season, but you can’t really justify this salary against someone like Gobert.
- Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,600 at OKC: Simmons is the second-priciest point guard tonight, but you’re much better off with Brogdon, Mitchell, or Murray if you’re spending up at the position.
- Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,900 at DEN: If I can’t justify Jokic against Gobert, I won’t try to justify Gobert against Jokic, either.
- Myles Turner (IND) $7,000 at LAC: The Clippers give up the fourth-fewest DKPPG to centers, so I’m avoiding Turner tonight.
- Tyrese Haliburton (SAC) $6,400 vs. NOR: Yes, Haliburton has a ton of upside. He’s also still a rookie. I wouldn’t pay this much for him when you can get Alexander-Walker or Aaron Holiday for much less.
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