DraftKings DFS NBA Advice: Sunday (1/24)
After last week gave us some marquee matchups, today’s slate is relatively free of high-profile games. The Washington Wizards are probably the day’s biggest storyline, which says more about the games we have on tap than the Wizards themselves.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.
- This slate is low on big-name studs. Without much talent at point guard, I recommend considering Damian Lillard despite his poor matchup. The Knicks may play at a slow pace, but with Portland’s litany of injuries, Lillard will have to do most of the work on offense. He’s gone for at least 5x value in three of his last four.
- Elfrid Payton isn’t a bad value option at point guard. He may not have a high ceiling, but his 24.9 DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) have him at least near value, and Portland’s defense gives up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing point guards.
- I want a lot of exposure to San Antonio’s reserves tonight. Dejounte Murray’s status is in doubt, and the Spurs should blow out the Wizards in their first game back since January 11th. Patty Mills could see an uptick in usage tonight, and he’s not a bad option since we should see lots of points.
- Terry Rozier is a strong target against the Magic, as they give up the third-most DKPPG to shooting guards.
- Donte DiVincenzo has had a strong season to date, and I like him in what should be a high-scoring game against the disorganized Atlanta Hawks. He hasn’t had a true upside outing in a few games, but that could change tonight.
- Again, I like San Antonio’s reserves and younger players in what should be a blowout. It helps that Lonnie Walker IV has already flashed his upside this season — he dropped 30-plus DK points against the T’Wolves and Thunder a few weeks ago, and he could rebound after a series of down games tonight.
- I don’t hate the Magic, but it’s a thin slate, so Gordon Hayward is a logical option against their defense. They allow the 11th-most DKPPG to opposing small forwards, too, so look for Hayward to build on his strong showing from Friday.
- RJ Barrett has been incredibly consistent. He’s scored between 31.2 and 42.5 DK points in each of his last six games, and he may finish toward the higher end of that range against a beat-up Blazers team.
- James Ennis III won’t win you a matchup. That said, he’s worth more than his near-minimum salary; he’s averaging 16.2 DKPPG over his last three, which is value-adjacent, and he most recently dropped 18.3 DK points against the Pacers despite Evan Fournier’s return.
- It’s a pretty thin slate, so you should be surprised by my decision to feature Giannis Antetokounmpo here. These two teams play at fast paces and are top-half teams in points per game, so I expect plenty of scoring here. With Atlanta allowing the fifth-most points to opposing power forwards, Giannis has slate-winning upside tonight.
- Again, I like San Antonio’s reserves here, and Rudy Gay has hit 5x value in his last three appearances.
- Bobby Portis could do some damage against Atlanta, too, especially if they continue to struggle against bigs. Even though Portis has spent 80% of his time at center, his low-end salary makes him a decent contrarian pivot, especially due to all the hype surrounding Clint Capela right now.
- I don’t really love tonight’s options at center, but you should consider Enes Kanter with Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum both hurt. He dropped 50.8 DK points against the Hawks a few nights ago, and that upside is quite attractive.
- Another position, another San Antonio bench player. Jakob Poeltl hasn’t been a consistent producer, but he’s flashed impressive upside when games get out of hand. He scored 26.3 DK points in San Antonio’s double-digit win over Portland, and he dropped 39.8 in the Spurs’ double-digit loss to Houston.
- Alex Len is the ultimate punt tonight. The Washington Wizards are so depleted that they just signed the Toronto cast-off; ironically, his last minutes came on January 11th, the last day that the Wizards played, too. Len could see enough minutes to hit value against his near-minimum salary in what should be a blowout loss.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,400 vs. ATL: I like Giannis because of Atlanta’s defense, which allows the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing power forwards, and because he fouled out on Thursday. That may affect his rostership, and it helped lower his salary by $100.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,000 at NYK: This isn’t a great matchup, but Lillard is the best option at a thin point guard position.
- Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,100 vs. CHA: If I had to pick an expensive center to feature tonight, it has to be Vucevic. This matchup isn’t great; Charlotte ranks around the league average in DKPPG allowed to centers, but Vucevic has hit 5x value against this price point in each of his last four games.
- Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,500 at ORL: I don’t love Hayward, but he’s getting the volume necessary to trust him at this price point.
- Jrue Holiday (MIL) $7,300 vs. ATL: I didn’t want to feature two guys above $7,000 in my point guard chart, but Holiday is the next-best value behind Lillard in what should be a high-scoring game.
Notable Players to Fade
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,100 at SAS: Westbrook is only questionable after multiple weeks off. I doubt that he’ll play tonight, and even if he does, you can’t trust him enough to use him in DFS.
- Clint Capela (ATL) $8,500 at MIL: My job in this section is to say “pump the brakes.” Yes, I know Capela just posted a no-assist double-double and is on a four-game hot streak, but let’s be honest — how hard is it to beat up on the Nurkic-less Blazers, KAT-less T’Wolves (twice), and Detroit Pistons? His salary has jumped up almost $2,000, so let someone else take the risk.
- DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $7,600 vs. WAS: I doubt that DeRozan will get a lot of run, as this game should be over before halftime.
- Collin Sexton (CLE) $7,100 at BOS: Again, let’s pump the brakes on Sexton. He may have destroyed the Nets in a high-profile game, but that game led to a $500 increase in his salary (it’s already come back down by $200), so I’d hold off on investing in him again.
- Jarrett Allen (CLE) $6,100 at BOS: Allen just won’t see the minutes needed to hit value behind Andre Drummond. Wait for his salary to fall back into the $5,000 range before trusting him again.
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