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DraftKings DFS NBA Advice: Sunday (1/3)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Jan 3, 2021

Happy New Year! I hope that you’re kicking the year off on the right foot. If you’re planning to avoid the Sunday scaries by watching some basketball and playing some DFS, I’ve got you covered.

Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois.

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I. Value Plays

  • Mike Conley is an affordable option against the unit that gives up the 10th-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to point guards. Conley has scored 50-plus DK points twice in his last three games, and he’ll look to maintain his momentum tonight.
  • Dennis Schroder should continue to see 30-plus minutes per game and is a fantastic value against Memphis’ league-worst defense against point guards.
  • Jalen Brunson could be worth a flyer if Luka Doncic has a minutes restriction or can’t play through his questionable tag.

  • The Utah Jazz have the third-worst defense against shooting guards, so Keldon Johnson should continue his hot start to the year against them. He has scored 40-plus DK points in two of his last three.
  • Joe Harris and the Nets will take on the Wizards in the game with the highest projected point total (240.5). Since the Wizards have a bottom-10 defense against shooting guards, he has a good chance to hit value.
  • Patty Mills is averaging 23.5 minutes per game, but he’s managed to pay out four times his salary in every game this year. He should do so again in a soft matchup.

  • If you want to spend up at guard, Harris’ forward eligibility can help you fit him into your lineup elsewhere.
  • The 20-year-old Deni Avdija is averaging 26.1 minutes per game and just dropped 31.25 DK points against the T’Wolves. He should post a good number of points versus the Nets, as they give up the seventh-most points to small forwards.
  • I love Joe Ingles tonight. Bojan Bogdanovic has struggled mightily to start the year, and Ingles got some extra minutes last Friday. He should be a strong option against the Spurs, who give up the most DKPPG to small forwards.

  • If Otto Porter Jr. continues to start for Lauri Markkanen, his extra minutes make him a high-upside value play. He scored 57.5 DK points against the Wizards on New Year’s Eve, and his matchup with the Mavericks isn’t a terrible one to target. They give up the 11th-most DKPPG to power forwards.
  • Paul Millsap will take on the T’Wolves tonight. They’re an above-average defense against power forwards, but Millsap has a good chance to get four-to-five times his value at this low-end salary.
  • Carmelo Anthony now has to compete with Robert Covington in Portland, but that’s baked into Anthony’s low-end salary; he’s averaging 21.8 DKPPG this year, which is just over five times what he’ll cost you.

  • I strongly recommend paying up at center this evening. The T’Wolves give up the third-most points to center, and Nikola Jokic is going to feast with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined. More on this below.
  • If you want to spend down at center, Jarrett Allen has been playing like a superstar this year and will take on Washington’s fourth-worst defense against centers. Unfortunately, his limited minutes are a cap on his upside (thanks, DeAndre Jordan).
  • If you want to get really contrarian, Naz Reid could be a decent pivot from Jokic in GPP formats; he’s starting for KAT and has averaged 25.2 DKPPG since taking over.

II. Five Notable Players to Feature

  1. Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,600 at MIN: Centers have been phenomenal against the T’Wolves since KAT went down. Marc Gasol put up 1.9 DK points per minute against (DKPPM) them, while Serge Ibaka posted 1.6 and Thomas Bryant posted 1.3. Look for Jokic to exceed his average of 1.7 DKPPM and post 60-plus points.
  2. Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,200 at BKN: I recommend featuring one or two of the star players from the Nets/Wizards matchup. Westbrook is averaging a rock-solid 58.3 DKPPG.
  3. Kevin Durant (BKN) $9,300 vs. WAS: The same reasoning above applies to Durant; he’s averaging 47.5 DKPPG.
  4. Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,000 vs. WAS: Again, try to target players in this matchup. I like Irving more than Westbrook and Durant, however, as the Wizards give up the ninth-most DKPPG to point guards.
  5. Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $7,100 at SAS: Mitchell is still pretty cheap for this contest but has slate-winning upside.

III. Five Notable Players to Fade

  1. Jonas Valanciunas (MEM) $8,000 at LAL: If you’re spending up at center, go with Jokic. Don’t spend up for Valanciunas in a depleted Grizzlies offense against the 11th-best defense versus centers.
  2. Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,600 at PHO: The Suns give up the fewest DKPPG to small forwards.
  3. Paul George (LAC) $8,700 at PHO: The Suns also give up the second-fewest DKPPG to shooting guards.
  4. LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) $6,200 vs. UTH: Aldridge is working back from injury, and that’s a recipe for disaster if he returns to face Rudy Gobert.
  5. Draymond Green (GSW) $5,800 vs. POR: Wait for Green to get starter’s minutes before considering him in DFS.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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