We’ve got a four-game slate Thursday night that kicks off with the Rockets and Trail Blazers at 7:30 PM and ends with the Suns and Warriors at 10:00 PM. As always, make sure to maximize roster flexibility by using those G, F, and UTIL spots for guys playing in the later games. Below you’ll find my favorite value plays, studs worth their salary, and notable players to fade. Let’s roll!

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings

Most Value Per Dollar

This is an interesting slate, as there aren’t many guys priced under $4,500 worth rostering tonight. That being said, there are several guys in the $5,000 – $6,000 range that can provide a solid bang for your buck for a variety of reasons that you’ll read about below.

The Clippers are again without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley, but it might not be the best idea to roll with their replacements against the Heat. DraftKings has priced the Clippers’ replacement starters appropriately, with Reggie Jackson at $7,000, Luke Kennard at $6,500, and Terance Mann at $5,400, siphoning out any value they could have had. 

You’ll also want to monitor the injuries for Tyler Herro and Devin Booker. If both remain out, Kendrick Nunn and Chris Paul make for great plays tonight, as you’ll read below. 

For DFS purposes, I like targeting close games with high projected point totals. The Trail Blazers/Rockets game takes the cake tonight, with an over/under of 228.5 points. I’ll also be looking at the Suns/Warriors game with a spread of just 1.5 points, meaning starters should have a safe minutes floor. For a full list of odds and spreads, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary.

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings

Enes Kanter (C – POR): $7,100 at HOU
Kanter gets a juicy matchup against a Houston team, allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing centers and the 3rd-most opponent rebounds per game. Kanter specifically excels as a rebounder, collecting an average of 13.5 in his last four games. He’s scored 50+ DK points in two of his last four games and should have a field day against Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins on Thursday night.

Mikal Bridges (SF – PHO): $6,000 vs. GS
The Suns, who play at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA, are taking on the Warriors, who play at the NBA’s 3rd-fastest pace. I generally like to target players on the slower-paced team in that scenario as they will likely be playing faster than usual due to the uptempo style of play of the other team. Bridges’ minutes are generally safe with or without Devin Booker in the lineup (questionable to play Thursday), making him an attractive option against the Warriors. He’s averaging 33.7 DK points in 34 minutes per game in his last six games. If Bridges’ 3-point shot is falling, he should have no problem hitting at least 5x value. 

Blake Griffin (PF/C – DET): $5,900 vs. LAL
Griffin was rested Wednesday night vs. the Cavaliers on the front end of a back-to-back, so he should be good to go against the Lakers on Thursday night. He’s nowhere near the player he once was, but Griffin is still averaging 12.3 points (on 11 shots), 6.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 32+ minutes per game. Not many players priced under $6,000 can provide you with 40+ DK-point upside, but Griffin has already hit that mark twice this season. You’ll want to double-check to make sure he’s starting, but he makes for a solid value at just $5,900 at home against the Lakers.

Kendrick Nunn (PG/SG – MIA): $5,900 vs. LAC
This looks like a tough matchup on paper for Nunn, but the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley once again for this one. With Tyler Herro out, Nunn has transformed into a top-scoring option for the Heat. In his last six games, he’s averaging 33.4 DK points in almost 36 minutes per contest. If Herro and Jimmy Butler remain out Thursday against the Clippers, go ahead and lock Nunn into your lineup. If for some reason, Herro and/or Butler are set to return, you might want to look elsewhere for a better value. 

Dennis Schroder (PG/SG – LAL): $5,700 at DET
Schroder has had a stretch of a few subpar performances, but let’s chalk that up to narratives. First, it was a primetime game against the Bucks coming off a loss to the Warriors. Then it was two homecomings, the first against Chicago (where Anthony Davis is from) and the second against Cleveland (where of course, LeBron James is from). The Lakers/Pistons game is on the second night of a back-to-back and in between two marquee games against the Sixers and Celtics, so it’s certainly possible James and Davis defer a bit to some other guys. At just $5,700, Schroder’s price-tag is at its low point for the season, even though he’s played 30+ minutes in 12 of his last 15 games. 

Carmelo Anthony (PF – POR): $5,600 at HOU
Melo got the start Monday night against the Thunder with Robert Covington (concussion) out of the lineup. He put up 21 shots and posted 37.5 DK points in 35 minutes. RoCo has been ruled out once again Thursday night, so Anthony should receive another start. In two games where he’s played 35 minutes this season, he’s averaging 38.9 DK points per game. This game against Houston also comes with a mini-revenge narrative attached to it, so don’t hesitate to lock Melo into your lineups with a legitimate shot at 6x value. 

James Wiseman (C -GS): $4,900 at PHO
Steve Kerr made the switch from Wiseman to Kevon Looney two games ago, and it seems to have lit a fire under the rookie. In his last two games off the bench, Wiseman is averaging 19 points and five rebounds in 20 minutes. That’s good for 1.4 points per minute. Should Kerr decide to keep Wiseman coming off the bench Thursday against the Suns, he’ll see more of Frank Kaminsky than he will Deandre Ayton, which is a matchup he should be able to exploit. Even if he plays just 20 minutes, he’s got a real shot to hit 6x value. 

Mason Plumlee (C – DET): $4,800 vs. LAL
Plumlee has recorded two straight double-doubles and is priced under $5,000 for the first time this season. Take advantage of the fact that DraftKings set his price before his 15 and 12 performance Wednesday night against the Cavaliers. At $4,800, Plumlee needs just 29 DK points to hit 6x value, a number he’s reached in eight of 18 games this season. 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/SF – LAL): $4,000 at DET
KCP put up a dud last night against the Sixers but now plays against the team that drafted him eighth overall back in 2013. This should be a “get right” spot for him against a Pistons team allowing the 4th-most DK points to opposing shooting guards. 

Harry Giles III (C – POR): $3,500 at HOU
There aren’t many guys priced under $4,000 on the slate that are worthy of rostering, but Giles is one that presents an interesting case. His minutes are on the rise in his last three games, averaging 17 minutes per game compared to his season average of just 10 minutes per game. As mentioned in the Kanter write-up, the Rockets allow the 3rd-most rebounds per game, and that’s what Giles does best. He comes with risk, but if you need to fill out your roster with a guy in this price range, he might be that guy. 

Studs Worth Their Salary

• Damian Lillard (PG – POR) $10,600: With C.J. McCollum off the floor, Lillard sees his usage rate increase from 30.5% to 32.6%. With McCollum out the last four games, Lillard has attempted an average of 21.3 field goals (compared to his season average of 19 FGA), scoring 34 points and dishing out 7.8 assists in 38 minutes per game. The Rockets play at a fast pace, and this game should be a close one. Expect another Lillard gem Thursday night.
• Christian Wood (C – HOU) $8,700: Wood faces off against Enes Kanter and the Trail Blazers Thursday night. While Kanter has filled in admirably for Jusuf Nurkic (fractured wrist) on the offensive end, his play on the defensive end leaves a lot to be desired. Opposing bigs continue to have their way against Kanter night in and night out. In fact, even Isaiah Roby was able to notch a career-high 16 points in 27 minutes against him in Portland’s last game. In Wood’s last four games before the ankle injury, he averaged 25.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, and two blocks per game. It sounds like he’s 100 percent coming off the injury, and he’s a guy I’m building around in my lineups Thursday night.
• Victor Oladipo (PG/SG – HOU) $8,100: Simply put, the Trail Blazers present guards with “get right” games. After shooting just 7-of-21 from the floor in his last game, Oladipo has a chance to get right against a Portland team allowing 116.2 points per game this season (5th most in the NBA). Since joining the Rockets, he has averaged a whopping 20 shots (most in his career) while playing 34 minutes per game. A fresh and healthy Oladipo has a great chance to put up big numbers against the likes of Damian Lillard, Rodney Hood, Anfernee Simons, and Gary Trent Jr. Thursday night.
• Chris Paul (PG – PHO) $8,000: If Devin Booker sits, I’m going right back to the well with CP3, who has averaged 52 DK points per game in the last two games Booker has been out. Paul has put up 20.5 shots per game compared to his season average of just 12 per game, and his usage goes up almost 4% with Booker off the floor. This is a pace-up game for the Suns, and CP3 has been playing heavy minutes, even in back-to-backs, so the risk is relatively low if Booker is ruled out once again.

Notable Players to Fade

• LeBron James (PG/SF – LAL) $10,400: After a nail-biter against the Sixers last night, the Lakers travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons on Thursday. James used up a lot of energy in 39 minutes in the loss to Philadelphia, so this could be a “take it easy” game for him ahead of another marquee matchup on Saturday in Boston. The Pistons may not present much resistance on the defensive end, but there isn’t much incentive for James to flex his muscle in what should be a game the Lakers should coast to victory with other guys stepping up. I’d rather Lillard for $200 more tonight. 
• Jerami Grant (SF/PF – DET) $8,400: After a hot stretch in the middle of January, Grant has cooled off a bit in his last four games, having surpassed 40 DK points just once. The Lakers present a tough matchup for opposing small forwards, allowing the least amount of DK points to the position. Additionally, a well-rested Blake Griffin should play in this one, which could take a few shots away from Grant. $8,400 is the highest we’ve seen Grant priced all season, and I’m willing to look elsewhere in that price-range at guys like Wood ($8,700), Oladipo ($8,100), and Paul ($8,000). 
• DeMarcus Cousins (C – HOU) $7,200: Cousins has put up two consecutive 50 DK point performances the last two games, but that’s been without Christian Wood in the lineup. With Wood expected back against the Trail Blazers, look for Cousins to head back to the bench. Rockets head coach Stephen Silas did say Cousins has earned more minutes as a result of his performances, but it’ll be hard to trust him at $7,200 in a reserve role. 
• Reggie Jackson (PG – LAC) $7,000: With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley out Tuesday night, Jackson put up 20/7/8 in 39 minutes against the Hawks. Those three are out again Thursday night but don’t expect Jackson to put together a repeat performance after having just 19.1% usage against Atlanta. The Clippers’ fill-in starters such as Jackson, Terance Mann ($5,400), and Luke Kennard ($6,500) are all priced up, making it a bit more difficult to find value in rostering them Thursday night. 

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