Skip to main content

DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Tuesday (1/12)

Jan 12, 2021

NBA DFS has always been difficult but the past week has made it nearly impossible. There are so many players sitting out right now, that it’s honestly hard to keep track of. The one thing it is doing is opening up value at every position. That’s the one thing we bank on as DFS managers and the more up to date you are on the news, the better off you’ll be for DFS!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Value Plays

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) at GS $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyrese Maxey (PHI) vs. MIA $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
George Hill (OKC) vs. SAN $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Brogdon has been one of the best point guards in the NBA, averaging 44.4 DK points per game. We love that against one of the worst defenses in the league.
  • Maxey should continue to play huge minutes at point guard with half of Philly’s roster missing.
  • Hill is averaging over 20 DK points per game and that’s really all you can ask for from a player south of $5K.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Victor Oladipo (IND) at GS $7,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Danny Green (PHI) vs. MIA $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Luguentz Dort (OKC) vs. SAN $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Oladipo has returned to his All-Star form this season, averaging 37 fantasy points per game. That obviously puts him in play against a 26th-ranked Warriors defense.
  • Green is another guy who should log huge minutes in Philly.
  • Dort regularly plays 30 minutes a night and is averaging over 20 DK points per game. Those are huge totals from a $4,100 player.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) at HOU $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kelly Oubre (GS) vs. IND $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) at CLE $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
  • James is a beast and he’ll find his way into the studs section.
  • Oubre has struggled early on but scoring at least 25 DK points in five of his last eight games is an encouraging sign.
  • Bojan has struggled as well but he’s too good of a player to be this cheap.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Domantas Sabonis (IND) at GS $9,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
LaMarcus Aldridge (SAN) at OKC $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Draymond Green (GS) vs. IND $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Sabonis will find himself in the studs section as well.
  • With DeMar DeRozan missing this game, Aldridge should run the show for the Spurs.
  • Green was terrible early on but he fell one rebound shy of a triple-double on Sunday. That’s hard to find from a player sitting around $5,500K.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) at BKN $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Joel Embiid (PHI) vs. MIA $9,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jarrett Allen (BKN) vs. DEN $6,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Jokic and Embiid will be in the next section.
  • Allen has taken over starting center duties in Brooklyn and it’s a wonder why his price remains this cheap. Over his last five games, Allen has a 31-point floor while averaging 38 fantasy points per game.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: Jokic has been the best player in fantasy, triple-doubling in nearly every game this year. That has led to him averaging 24.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, 10.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. We simply can’t fade that no matter the price.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,000: LeBron has been a good DFS pick for over 15 years now and he’s in the midst of one of his big runs. Over his last six games, LBJ is averaging 24.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 0.8 steals per game. We obviously love that he faces a 20th-ranked Rockets defense too.
  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $9,700: We liked Embiid when this Sixers roster was full but now that Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, Ben Simmons, and Seth Curry are all out, he’s their only option on offense. That means he could be looking at 40 minutes, 30 shots, and a 40 percent usage rate which is scary since he already had a 40-point floor before all of this.
  • Kevin Durant (BRK) $9,400: Many people were worried about KD in his return from an Achilles injury but he hasn’t lost a step. Not only has he scored at least 41 DraftKings points in every game this season, he’s also averaging 47.4 DK points per game. That makes him hard to avoid against a 26th-ranked Nuggets defense.
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $9,300: Sabonis was in our article yesterday and he’s going to remain in them until his price goes up or until he faces an easier defense. The big man is averaging 21.6 points, 12.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game which should be easy to duplicate against a Golden State team who’s allowing the fifth-most points in the NBA.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • James Harden (HOU) $10,800: We love Harden and he’s an amazing player but it’s clear his role isn’t the same this season. John Wall, Christian Wood, and DeMarcus Cousins are taking away touches from Harden, which has led to failing to surpass 52 DK points since the opener. He needs at least that at this price. Not to mention, Los Angeles has one of the best defenses in the NBA.
  • Donovan Mitchell (UTA) $8,400: With Mike Conley taking over as the primary ball-handler in Utah, DM is seeing a major drop off in production. In fact, he’s only surpassed 42 DK points in 10 games this season, averaging fewer than 35 fantasy points per game for the year. That’s not acceptable from an $8,400 player.
  • Caris LeVert (BRK) $7,600: LeVert is simply not the same player when either Durant or Irving are playing. That’s going to be the case here, with LeVert playing fewer than 30 minutes a game when one of them is out. He’s also averaging less than 30 DK points per game in those outings which is simply not good enough from someone so expensive.
  • Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum, DeMar DeRozan, Michael Porter, Kevin Love, Darius Garland, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, T.J. Warren, and Tobias Harris: All of these guys are expected to sit and there’s likely to be even more coming! The Miami-Bostom game has been postponed and it wouldn’t be shocking if another one does too.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

What's your take? Leave a comment

Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.