DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (1/16)
This week has been absolutely bonkers. It would be one thing to adjust to a James Harden blockbuster trade, but that’s just a tiny part of the craziness of the week. We had games postponed almost every day, and tons of players miss time because of COVID protocols. For this slate, we have a Phoenix-Indiana matchup postponed here. That gives us a modest four-game slate, with the Houston-San Antonio and Orlando-Brooklyn games taking place during the day. With that in mind, let’s get into these four games!
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Most Value Per Dollar
Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.
|Damian Lillard (POR)||vs. ATL||$9,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Kyle Lowry (TOR)||vs. CHA||$7,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Tyrese Maxey (PHI)||at MEM||$5,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
- Lillard and Lowry are two of the best plays on the board, and we’ll discuss that more in the studs section.
- Maxey was amazing with many Sixers out all week because of COVID protocols, and he’s likely carved out a role that makes him worth a shot at $5,100.
|Tyler Herro (MIA)||vs. DET||$7,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Shake Milton (PHI)||at MEM||$5,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Delon Wright (DET)||at MIA||$4,900||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
- If all of the Miami players remain out, Herro is one of the best options on the board. We’ll go over that more later.
- Milton had a gem on Thursday, dropping a season-best 51 DK points. That makes this price tag hard to understand, especially with Embiid out.
- Wright has at least 25 DK points in three-straight games and is a good play below $5K if he plays at least 30 minutes yet again.
|Ben Simmons (PHI)||at MEM||$8,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|OG Anunoby (TOR)||vs. CHA||$5,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Josh Jackson (DET)||at MIA||$4,200||⭐⭐⭐||High|
- With Embiid out, Simmons should take on more of the offensive load. That’s all we can ask for from a triple-double machine like this, averaging 40 fantasy points per game for the season.
- Anunoby never really goes off, but he’s too good of a player to be this cheap. We’re talking about a guy who’s averaging 27 fantasy points per game, which is more indicative of a $6,000 player.
- Jackson is super risky, but he’s shown a 40-point upside this season. If you hear that he’s starting, JJ is one of the best punt plays out there.
|Tobias Harris (PHI)||at MEM||$7,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Robert Covington (POR)||vs. ATL||$4,800||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Precious Achiuwa (MIA)||vs. DET||$4,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
- With Embiid out, Harris is the man in Philly. We’ll discuss that more later on.
- Covington has been terrible this season, but a matchup against a bad Atlanta defense could be the thing to spark him. We also like that his rebounding will increase with Jusuf Nurkic out.
- If Bam is out again, Precious should see 25-30 minutes and remains a fantastic value.
|Clint Capela (ATL)||at POR||$6,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Enes Kanter (POR)||vs. ATL||$5,600||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Bismack Biyombo (CHA)||at TOR||$4,000||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
- Capela is a double-double machine, and he should be able to do just that against a 26th-ranked Portland defense.
- With Nurkic out, Kanter could start and play 25 minutes. If that’s the case, he’s one of the best plays on the board with his per-minute production.
- Biyombo regularly plays 25 minutes a night as the starter, and he would have some extra motivation against his former team.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Damian Lillard (POR) $9,200: Lillard has been on a heater, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in every game since the opener. He’s been even better recently, averaging 46.3 DK points per game across his last eight outings. It seems like a strong possibility that he’ll be able to continue that success against Trae Young and his lackluster defense.
- Trae Young (ATL) $8,900: Speak of the devil! This is one of those matchups where these two will allow one another to go off. A big reason why is because these two clubs play at a fast pace, and these two superstars will be firing off 30-footers at will. Young is actually the one with the better matchup, with Portland ranked 26th in total defense. He already looked too cheap, and this is just the cherry on top.
- Tobias Harris (PHI) $7,500: With Joel Embiid missing this game because of a knee injury, Harris should be running things. Dating back to last season, Toby has a usage rate approaching 30 percent with him off the floor while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That’s an absurd rate, and he’d be the easiest play of the day of Ben Simmons sits too.
- Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,200: Lowry just quietly has big year after big year, and he’s in the midst of another solid season. Scoring at least 32 DK points in every game is impressive enough, but he’s also averaging 37 fantasy points per game for the year. That’s all you can ask for with him facing a subpar Charlotte defense, especially at a $7,200 price. When they played on Thursday, Lowry had 16 points, six rebounds, and 12 assists in one of his best games of the season.
- Tyler Herro (MIA) $7,700: With Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Goran Dragic all questionable, Herro is the man. Herro has a 29 percent usage rate with those three off the floor, averaging 39 DK points per game across his last three fixtures. If they’re back, we’re going to fade Herro.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,800: Hayward is dealing with a hip issue, and that really worries me with players like LaMelo Ball and P.J. Washington stepping up in Charlotte. That means Hayward will be more passive as the season progresses, which appears to be the case when you see failed to surpass 26 DK points in four of his last nine games. That’s a concerning floor from someone priced this rich, and Toronto is certainly not a defense we want to exploit.
- Ja Morant (MEM) $7,600: There’s some talk about Morant returning for this weekend, but I hate using players in their first game back. Not only will he be looking at a minutes restriction, but he might also be hesitant with his injured ankle. That looks even scarier when you consider that he faces a fifth-ranked Philly defense.
- John Collins (ATL) $7,100: Collins has not been the stud we saw throughout most of last season. In fact, he’s only surpassed 36 DK points twice all year and is averaging just 31 fantasy points per game. That’s simply unacceptable at this price tag.
- Blake Griffin (DET) $6,100: Griffin finds his way into these articles a lot, and he’s going to remain in them until his price falls below $6,000. Not only is he ceding touches to Jerami Grant, but he’s also averaging just 26 fantasy points per game across his last six outings.
- Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler: All of these players are either injured or dealing with COVID protocols.
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