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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (1/23)

Jan 23, 2021

Eric Bledsoe has too much upside to be this cheap.

Friday was the biggest slate of the season, and things were wild. It was actually one of my most profitable nights of the year, and we’re going to look to build off of that here. After 11 games on Friday, we have seven games making up this night slate. That’s the perfect amount for DFS, and there’s a lot to talk about, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar

Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luka Doncic (DAL) vs. HOU $10,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
D’Angelo Russell (MIN) vs. NOR $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Goran Dragic (MIA) at BKN $6,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Doncic is a triple-double machine right now, and he’ll be in the studs section later on.
  • Russell has been cruising ever since Karl-Anthony Towns got injured, averaging over 40 DK points per game across his last nine outings.
  • Dragic has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four-straight and should continue to handle the ball a ton with Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro both sidelined.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Eric Gordon (HOU) at DAL $6,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Eric Bledsoe (NOR) at MIN $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Delon Wright (DET) vs. PHI $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Gordon has a 30 percent usage rate with this shorthanded roster and should do even more with John Wall and Christian Wood both out.
  • Bledsoe has too much upside to be this cheap, especially against the second-worst defense in the NBA.
  • Wright has been playing 30 minutes a night over the last week, and if he continues to do that, he’s a great value at just $5K.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brandon Ingram (NOR) at MIN $8,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jerami Grant (DET) vs. PHI $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) vs. GSW $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Ingram has been a revelation this season, and we love him against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. We’ll talk more about that in the studs section.
  • Grant has at least 30 fantasy points in every game since the opener and is averaging 45 DK points per game over the last two weeks.
  • Bojan has been much better recently, and we want to use him below $6,000 against this bad Warriors defense.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. CHI $9,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Zion Williamson (NOR) at MIN $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Draymond Green (GSW) at UTH $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • AD is too good to be below $10,000, and he could exploit a small Bulls team without Wendell Carter Jr.
  • Zion is averaging 26.4 points and 7.1 rebounds on 62 percent shooting over his last eight games played.
  • Draymond was on his way to another gem on Thursday before an ejection, and it’s keeping his price way too low.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) at PHO $10,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Steven Adams (NOR) at MIN $6,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
DeMarcus Cousins (HOU) at DAL $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Jokic is the best player in fantasy right now, and he’ll obviously be in the next section.
  • Adams just had 16 rebounds on Thursday, and he could do that again versus a terrible T’Wolves defense.
  • If Cousins starts for Wood again, he needs to be in pretty much every lineup out there after dropping 40 on Friday.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,800: To say Jokic should be used universally used on every slate is an understatement. The big man is providing over 60 DraftKings points per night for the season, thanks to his 25.1 points, 11.4 rebounds, 10 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. That’s backed up by a 42-point floor, which makes him hard to avoid, no matter the price.
  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,700: If you don’t want to go with Jokic, you have to pick Doncic. We say that because he’s been balling just like Joker, averaging 27.1 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks over his last nine games played. That equates to 60 DK points a night, but Doncic gets to face a 20th-ranked Rockets defense too.
  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,000: Speaking of guys cruising, Embiid is on another level right now. Outside of one blowout dud in which Embiid was rested for most of the second half, he’s scored at least 40 fantasy points in the other 12 games he’s played en route to a 53-point average. All of that looks even more enticing when you consider that Detroit ranks 25th in total defense.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $8,500: Bam made a name for himself in last year’s playoffs, and we definitely want to ride him against the Nets. While Brooklyn’s defense was solid early on, they just allowed 147 points on Wednesday and could be one of the worst defenses in basketball with the recent moves. That’s huge for a player like Bam, with Adebayo scoring at least 35 DK points in eight-straight while averaging 44 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Brandon Ingram (NOR) $8,100: Using players against Minnesota is a cheat code right now. They currently rank 29th in total defense, and that means we need to use the opposition’s best player against them. That happens to be Ingram, who’s scored at least 30 DK points in every game this season while averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,200: This is undoubtedly our riskiest fade, but this price and matchup make LaVine a risky option. We say that because he needs 50 fantasy points to reach value, and that’s a heck of a total to reach against the number-one defense in the NBA.
  • Chris Paul (PHO) $7,100: CP3 has taken a major hit to his numbers to allow Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton to eat, averaging just 13.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 0.8 steals per game. Those are some of his worst numbers since his rookie year, and it really scares us to play a 35-year-old in the second half of a back-to-back set.
  • Blake Griffin (DET) $6,200: Griffin has ceded touches to Jerami Grant this year, and he’s simply not the guy we remember. He’s averaging just 13.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 0.1 blocks per game en route to less than 30 DK points a night. We obviously can’t ride him against a fifth-ranked Sixers defense either, with this being the second half of a back-to-back set.
  • Tyrese Maxey (PHI) $3,600: Many people might be holding on to Maxey after his absurd run last week, but he’s in a completely new situation. Ben Simmons is healthy, while Shake Milton, Joel Embiid, Seth Curry, and Tobias Harris have all returned from the COVID protocols. That has led to him collecting just 21 combined DK points over his last two games, making him unusable despite the cheap price tag.
  • Christian Wood, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro: All of these big-name players will likely sit due to injury or COVOD protocols.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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