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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (1/30)

Jan 30, 2021

Zach LaVine should not be below $9,000 the way he’s playing right now.

We have eight games ahead of us for this Saturday slate, which is honestly the perfect number. It’s not too little or too much, and it leaves us with a perfect player pool. There’s a lot to talk about, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

This should be a rather high-scoring night, with every total sitting north of 215. We also have a bunch of narrow spreads as well, and it should force many of the starters into big minutes.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Zach LaVine (CHI): $8,800
LaVine should not be below $9,000 the way he’s playing right now. We’ll discuss that more in the studs section!

Jerami Grant (DET): $7,800
Grant has at least 30 DK points in 17 of 19 games this season and should be able to duplicate that against a 24th-ranked Warriors defense.

Enes Kanter (POR): $7,100
Kanter has been starting for Jusuf Nurkic and feasting double-doubles. In fact, Kanter has scored at least 25 fantasy points in all five starts while averaging 38 DK points per game.

Ja Morant (MEM): $7,100
It’s crazy that Morant is this cheap. If you take out the game where he got injured, Ja is averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game. That’s a ridiculous total from a $7,100 player, and it’s not like the Spurs’ defense is one to avoid.

John Wall (HOU): $6,800
Wall has at least 35 DK points in back-to-back games, which matches his season average. That’s really all you can hope for from a sub-$7K player.

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Carmelo Anthony (POR): $5,500
Melo has found his way into the starting lineup with so many injures in Portland and is firing up shots at will. He’s actually averaging 16 shots a game over the last four fixtures while averaging nearly 30 DK points per game in that span. We love that with Chicago owning a 27th OPRK against opposing power forwards.

LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): $5,400
Aldridge has at least 30 DK points in five of his last 10 games, and that’s too much upside for a player sitting at $5,400. He’s been even better over his last three fixtures, averaging 33 DK points per game in that span.

Draymond Green (GSW): $5,100
Green has been inconsistent all season long, but he’s got triple-double upside every time he steps on the floor. We can’t overlook that with this $5,100 price tag, especially with him scoring at least 21 fantasy points in three-straight.

James Wiseman (GSW): $4,800
Wiseman is a per-minute monster with his 1.3 DK points-per-minute, and we really like him with Detroit surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers.

Josh Richardson (DAL): $4,200
Richardson has earned this dirt-cheap price tag, but he’s been a $6,000 player in the past. It’s just a matter of time before he starts performing better, and we definitely want to buy this stock at its lowest cost.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,800: Giannis has one of the best floors of any player in the league, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in all but one game. This matchup is superb, too, with Charlotte surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,700: It’s pretty tough to fade Doncic right now. Since the calendar turned to 2021, Luka is averaging 28.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 10.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $10,600: With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic both out, Lillard is doing everything for Portland. In fact, he’s got a 40 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor, scoring at least 49 DK points in five-straight games.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,700: Curry is on a heater himself, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in eight-straight while averaging 45 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s bad news for a 25th-ranked Pistons defense.
  • Zach LaVine (CHI) $8,800: Portland is one of the worst defenses in the NBA right now, and there’s no way they’re slowing this guy down. Over his last 15 games, LaVine is averaging 28 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jaylen Brown (BOS) $8,000: There’s no doubt that Brown is in the midst of a breakout season, but negative regression is headed his way. We say that because Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are both back, taking a ton of shots and usage away from Brown. That means this price will inevitably drop, and we especially can’t trust him here against the best defense in the NBA.
  • DeMarcus Cousins (HOU) $6,800: With Christian Wood back, Cousins is back to a backup role. In the 10 games Cousins has come off the bench, he’s only surpassed 20 DK points once.
  • LaMelo Ball (CHA) $5,600: Ball has been in this section for over a week now, and it’s no surprise when you see his statistics. He’s failed to crack 30 DraftKings points in five-straight games and is averaging just 20 fantasy points across 22 minutes a game in that span.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $5,600: With Kristaps Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Josh Richardson all back, it’s hard to trust THJ. All his value comes through sheer volume and his shot attempts dropping so drastically is horrifying for his value.
  • These guys are expected to sit: C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Jonas Valanciunas, Goran Dragic, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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