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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Divisional Round (2021)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Jan 14, 2021

We’re rapidly approaching the end of the football season. While that promises late-season heroics and exciting finishes, it also spells the end for NFL DFS. I hope you’ve had a profitable few months, and if you’re looking to go out with a bang, check out some of my recommend plays below!

If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.

Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!

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Last Week’s Picks

Quarterback
Mitch Trubisky (CHI): 12.96 points (2.44x)
Philip Rivers (IND): 25.26 points (4.68x)

Running Back
James Conner (PIT): 19.7 points (3.94x)
Gus Edwards (BAL): 3.8 points (0.86x)
Cam Akers (LAR): 28.6 points (5.29x)
Nyheim Hines (IND): 9.3 points (1.97x)

Wide Receivers
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT): 37.7 points (6.85x)
Darnell Mooney (CHI): 0 points (0x) — Out
Gabriel Davis (BUF): 12.5 points (3.13x)
Josh Reynolds (LAR): 0 points (0x)

Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith (TEN): 2.9 points (0.90x)
Trey Burton (IND): 6.4 points (2.29x)

I ran two articles for Wild Card weekend, and I did pretty well despite having to make a ton of selections on a limited slate. Smith-Schuster scored the most points of all players last weekend, and Akers got the sixth-most (and most of all running backs). Davis, Conner, and Rivers all hit value, too! After a strong start, I’ll look to keep the momentum rolling this weekend.

Quarterback

Drew Brees (NO): $5,600 vs. TB
We have a pretty limited set of value options at quarterback. Rather than side with the Browns or an injured Jared Goff, I’ll roll with Brees this weekend. He wasn’t fantastic last week against Washington, but his 18.8 DK points would’ve been enough to hit 3x value at this price point. The Buccaneers also allowed 20.3 DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to quarterbacks in the regular season, right around the league average, so Brees shouldn’t have too much trouble on Sunday. He has definitely regressed as a passer, but Alvin Kamara can bail him out by turning short-yardage passes into big-time plays.

Honorable mention: Baker Mayfield (CLE): $5,300 at KC.

Running Back

Cam Akers (LAR): $5,700 at GB
Akers is the postseason RB1 and the overall sixth-highest scorer. Meanwhile, the Packers gave up the fifth-most DKPPG in the regular season, so it’s another prime spot to target Akers. While I have my reservations about Los Angeles’ offense — Jared Goff is still banged up, and now Cooper Kupp is dealing with an injury, too — Akers shouldn’t be this cheap. He’s a safe higher-end value play this weekend.

Devin Singletary (BUF): $4,500 vs. BAL
With Zack Moss done for the rest of the playoffs, Devin Singletary will have this backfield to himself. The sophomore averaged 9.7 DKPPG through Moss’s earlier absence, which isn’t great, but he scored 12-plus points twice through that span. The Ravens aren’t a great opponent to target, as they give up the 13th-fewest DKPPG to the position, but Singletary is one of the cheapest running backs you can trust to lead his backfield in touches; Le’Veon Bell ($5,100), Leonard Fournette ($4,900), and Kareem Hunt ($4,800) are all more expensive than him. Singletary is a raw volume play without a ton of upside, but he has a good chance to hit value without Moss.

Honorable mention: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC): $5,500 vs. CLE.

Wide Receiver

Gabriel Davis (BUF): $4,000 vs. BAL
Here he is again. Davis hit value last week, and I think that he can repeat this weekend. Sure, he has to compete with Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and John Brown. The kid just has a nose for the end zone, and he’s had one since college! He has eight touchdowns — seven regular-season, one playoff — which means he doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit value. Davis is a touchdown-or-bust deep threat who has hit 3x value against this price point five times, and if the Bills have to play from behind against Baltimore, he may see some desperate deep looks from Josh Allen.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB): $3,800 vs. LAR
Oh, boy! With Jalen Ramsey covering Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers will have to get creative. Enter MVS. The six-foot-four receiver boasts a 97th-percentile speed score, ran a 4.37-second 40-yard dash, and earned 22 deep targets this season. He’s averaging a jaw-dropping 20.9 yards per catch and has scored five touchdowns on the year, and he’s hit 3x value against this price point in each of those games. There isn’t a cheaper play on the slate with as much upside.

Honorable mention: Antonio Brown (TB): $5,400 at NO.

Tight End

Dawson Knox (BUF): $3,100 vs. BAL
Let’s be real — you’re either starting Travis Kelce or punting the position entirely. If you need a punt play, Knox has to be the guy. He sits just $600 above the minimum price despite catching a touchdown last week, and he’ll come very close to hitting value with just one short-range touchdown reception this week. The Ravens have an average defense against tight ends, as they gave up 12.2 DKPPG during the regular season, and that plus a likely pass-heavy game script are enough for me to lock in on Knox.

Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB): $2,900 at NO.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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