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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Wild Card Saturday Slate (1/9)

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Wild Card Saturday Slate (1/9)

The playoffs are here! That means it’s fine for high-pressure football, weekend-long action, and, unfortunately, smaller DFS slates. Oh well, I suppose you can’t have it all.

If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.

Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!

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Last Week’s Picks

Quarterback
Mason Rudolph (PIT): 22.7 points (5.28x)

Running Back
Nyheim Hines (IND): 12.7 points (2.59x)
Malcolm Brown (LAR): 2.8 points (0.65x)

Wide Receivers
Sterling Shepard (NYG): 36.6 points (7.03x)
Kendrick Bourne (SF): 12.6 points (2.93x)

Tight Ends
Eric Ebron (PIT): 0 points (0x) — Declared out before the game.

Nice! Week 17 went pretty well, as all but one of my active picks hit value or came very close to doing so. Shepard had slate-winning upside, and Rudolph turned out to be an absolute steal at his low-end pricing. With the playoffs now underway, let’s see if I can keep this momentum rolling!

This Week’s Value Plays: Saturday Slate 

Quarterback

Philip Rivers (IND): $5,400 at BUF
Saturday’s set of quarterbacks are very hit or miss. You’ve got Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady, all of whom are priced well above the $6,000 value threshold; then you’ve got Rivers, Alex Smith, and John Wolford, all of whom are priced well below that mark. Jared Goff, whose status remains up in the air, sits right at $6,000. If you’re planning to spend down at quarterback, go with Rivers. The Bills give up the 14th-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing quarterbacks (20.9), and Rivers has flashed upside at different points this year. He hit 28.7 DK points against the Bengals, 22.4 against the Packers, and 22.3 against the Lions! He only needs to score 16.2 DK points to hit value at this price, which is right below his season-long average of 16.3 DKPPG. Also, Rivers offers you a much higher ceiling than Smith, who has a season-high of 19 DK points.

Running Back

Cam Akers (LAR): $5,100 at SEA
Saturday’s slate offers slim pickings at running back. Only one player, Jonathan Taylor, is priced outside of value territory. Although Chris Carson ($5,900) and Antonio Gibson ($5,700) are technically value plays, picking either of them feels like cheating, and I’ll look a little lower for value instead. Enter Cam Akers. He’s averaging 14.9 DKPPG over his last four appearances, including an 11.6-point showing in his return from injury. While we haven’t seen much of Akers against the Seahawks, the Rams scored three rushing touchdowns against Seattle back in Week 10, and they’ll likely lean on their running game with Goff working through an injury.

Nyheim Hines (IND): $4,700 at BUF
Hines is an interesting, high-ceiling pivot this weekend. The Colts should be playing from behind against the Bills, and with Tre’Davious White locking down one of their perimeter receiving weapons, Nyheim Hines could get some extra usage in the passing game. Hines has cashed in for 20-plus DK points three times this year, and the Colts have often looked his way in the red zone — he ranks second on the team in target share inside the 20-yard line (16.9%) and inside the 10-yard line (16.7%). Hines will need to score at least one touchdown to hit value, and I’m cautiously optimistic about his chances to score on Saturday. It helps that Buffalo allows the second-highest percentage of explosive rushing plays (14%).

Wide Receiver

Gabriel Davis (BUF): $4,000 vs. IND
I’m not sure what’s happening in Buffalo’s receiving room. Both Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley are dealing with injuries, so we don’t know who exactly the Bills will trot out on Saturday. We do know that Xavier Rhodes should cover Buffalo’s best perimeter receiver, but whether that ends up being Diggs or Brown remains unclear. And after a three-touchdown showing a week ago, slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie seems like he’d be too chalky if Beasley sits. Fortunately, Davis makes an excellent option regardless of who plays for Buffalo. The big-bodied rookie boasts size, athleticism, and a high football IQ, and he’s had a nose for the end zone since college. Davis just needs to catch one long-range touchdown pass to hit value here, and he’s a must-roster for me on Saturday’s slate.

Josh Reynolds (LAR): $3,600 at SEA
Reynolds has earned 81 targets, 52 receptions, and 618 receiving yards this season. I mention that because 20 of those targets (24.7%), 14 of those receptions (25.9%), and 159 of those yards (25.7%) came against the Seahawks. Jared Goff has looked Reynolds’ way 10 times in each of Los Angeles’ games against Seattle, and the fourth-year receiver turned those opportunities into 17.4 and 13 DK points, respectively. If he scores somewhere in that range on Saturday, that’d be more than enough points for him to hit value, and he’s a great sleeper option on Saturday’s slate as long as Goff starts.

Tight End

Trey Burton (IND): $2,800 at BUF
If you’re playing the Saturday-only slate, you’ve got slim pickings at tight end. Logan Thomas ($4,900) and Rob Gronkowski ($3,900) are the two highest-priced options, so you won’t have to spend that much at the position anyway. You should trust your gut and go with one of those two players. But if you’re looking for a true punt, Trey Burton is your best bet. Sure, he did nothing in Week 17, but he earned four targets the week before. More importantly, he’s scored five touchdowns this season, including two rushing ones. He’s a touchdown-or-bust option, but unlike the others in this price range, his coach has schemed him into red-zone packages to help him find paydirt. Also, it helps that the Bills give up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing tight ends (15.2).

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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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