DraftKings Projected Roster Percentage: Week 17 (2020)
Welcome to 2021! With last year in the books, it’s time to make resolutions (and stick to them)! If you’re hoping to get move involved with DFS this year, then checking out projected roster percentage data is a fantastic place to start.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Deshaun Watson is near-chalk this week. You should bet on him in cash leagues and against him in tournaments. The Texans have an interesting matchup with the Titans, who give up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing quarterbacks (21.8), and they’ll need to score in bunches to keep up with Tennessee’s offense. These two teams combined for 78 points back in Week 6, a game in which Watson threw four touchdown passes.
Behind Watson, we’ve got three quarterbacks who qualified for the 10-20% range: Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and Lamar Jackson. Of the trio, Cousins has the best matchup. He’ll play the Detroit Lions, who give up the second-most DKPPG to quarterbacks (24.6). They’ve also looked awful lately. They’ve given up at least 30 points to their opponents in five-straight games, and they’ve allowed 45-plus points in their last two. Cousins will also have to do most of Minnesota’s scoring with Dalvin Cook sidelined.
The other two plays, Jackson and Rodgers, are too close in salary to Watson for me to target them — especially since Derrick Henry is like to do most of the offensive damage for Tennessee. If you want a chalky, big-name quarterback, go with Watson; otherwise, pivot to a more contrarian option like Cousins or Mason Rudolph.
That said, I do like Tom Brady against the Falcons this week. Atlanta’s secondary has been and remains terrible, and Brady just dropped 26.4 DraftKings points on them two weeks ago.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor headline this list at running back, and players are strong options as their respective teams try to win the AFC South. Henry is the more expensive of the two, but he also has a far higher ceiling — the Texans have allowed the second-most rushing yards and have given up the most DKPPG to opposing rushers (33.2). Taylor’s opponent, the Jaguars, have allowed the third-most DKPPG to the position (29.7), and he’s also a strong option. That said, if I had to choose between him and Henry, I would go with Henry each time.
David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, and Melvin Gordon all cracked the 10-20% range as well. Of the four players, I like Montgomery the most — he’s looked fantastic for the Bears recently, and the Packers have struggled against the run all season. They give up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing rushers (27.9), too.
Of the wide receivers, Tim Patrick is projected to be a popular play against the Raiders. Las Vegas’ defense isn’t a clear one to target with plays like Patrick, however, as they’ve allowed only the 12th-most DKPPG to the position (38.2). Patrick only caught four passes for 61 yards against them earlier in the year, too, and he’s averaged only 4.25 targets per game over his last four appearances.
Josh Reynolds, Richie James, Jalen Guyton, Mike Williams, Davante Adams, and Jamison Crowder all qualify for this list in the 10-20% range. I’m not a big fan of the low-volume value plays like Reynolds and James this week. Reynolds and James are low-volume players in sputtering offenses, and in James’ case, the Seahawks are no longer a team to target with opposing wideouts. I don’t hate Jalen Guyton, but I prefer some other value plays at receiver.
Adams should be a rock-solid bet to hit value as the Packers try to clinch their bye week.
Lastly, Darren Waller is the lone tight end to crack this list. I’m surprised that it’s not Travis Kelce, but Waller offers similar upside for a much lower price. If you’re looking to spend down at tight end, I have some tips for that as well.
This list has everything. We’ve got double-digit betting favorites (Ravens and Colts), hopelessly bad defenses (Lions and Texans), and middle-of-the-road, matchup-contingent plays (Seahawks and Vikings).
Of these options, I like Seattle the most. They’re reasonably inexpensive despite not having allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points over the last five weeks. They should be a safe start against a sputtering 49ers team led by C.J. Beathard.
The Ravens and Colts should both be strong options as well, but you’d expect as much for their salaries. Baltimore is a 13.5-point favorite, while Indianapolis has a 14-point advantage. The two teams should utterly decimate their low-quality divisional opposition as they seek to lock down playoff berths.
If you’re looking for a contrarian punt, the Lions against a Cook-less Vikings seem like a better option than the Texans against Derrick Henry.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.