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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (1/16)

by Alex Burns
Jan 16, 2021

Shake Milton dropped 31 points and seven dimes en route to 51.9 FanDuel points in Thursday’s win over the Heat.

The weekend is finally here, and few things rank ahead of Saturday night hoops. Even in a smaller-than-normal four-game slate, there will be plenty of talent and value to choose from. Let’s jump right into some of the best values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities.

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Most Value Per Dollar

Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. DET $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Shake Milton (PHI) @ MEM $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Dragic has been upgraded to questionable after missing each of the last two games due to landing on the COVID list. He should immediately command a large role in the offense should he be able to suit up and is averaging 1.11 FanDuel points per minute while garnering a 30.8% usage rate without Jimmy Butler on the court this season.
  • Milton picked up right where he left off after missing three games, dropping 31 points and seven dimes en route to 51.9 FanDuel points in Thursday’s win over the Heat. With Joel Embiid sitting this one out due to knee pain, Philly will need to find their offense elsewhere, and Milton fits the bill. In 149 total minutes without Embiid on the court this season, Milton is seeing a 28.5% usage rate and averaging 1.11 FanDuel points per minute.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Cam Reddish (ATL) @ POR $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Derrick Rose (DET) @ MIA $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

  • Reddish has scored 20 or more points in two of his last three games and has been the biggest beneficiary of Bogdan Bogdanovic‘s knee injury. Saturday’s matchup against the Blazers’ is the highest projected over/under on the slate at 236, giving him plenty of opportunities to produce value.
  • Rose has been removed from the injury report after missing the previous two games with knee soreness. He’s averaged 26.09 FanDuel points per game this season but gets a terrific matchup against the Heat, who have struggled to contain slashing guards and just gave up 31 points to Shake Milton on Thursday. Rose should continue to see a hefty workload in the aftermath of Killian Hayes’ labral hip tear.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Precious Achiuwa (MIA) vs. DET $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Caleb Martin (CHA) @ TOR $3,900 ⭐⭐ High

  • Precious went toe-to-toe with Joel Embiid in each of the last two games and managed to post a double-double in both. He’s been getting some extra playing time while multiple Heat players remain inside the league’s health and safety protocols, and that should be the case once again Saturday. Precious is averaging 30.6 FanDuel points over his last two games and gets a matchup with a Pistons team who are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game this season.
  • With Gordon Hayward banged up, Martin was inserted into the starting lineup for Thursday’s game against the Raptors. He struggled with his shot but could contribute solid numbers in other areas, leading to a season-high 24.2 FanDuel points. If Hayward is forced to sit once more, most people will run to Miles Bridges at $4,300, but Martin represents a nice contrarian play for Saturday’s slate.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brandon Clarke (MEM) vs. PHI $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Harry Giles (POR) vs. ATL $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Clarke has been impressive as of late, topping 40+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games. While a matchup against Philly looks tough on paper, Joel Embiid won’t be out there due to knee soreness, which will surely make things easier for Clarke down low.
  • With Jusuf Nurkic suffering a fractured hand during Thursday’s loss to the Pacers, Giles and Enes Kanter remain as the only true big men left on the Blazers’ roster. Kanter will presumably start at center in Nurkic’s absence, though Giles will certainly see an increased role as we advance. With Saturday’s game against the Hawks leading the slate with the highest over/under at 236, there should be plenty of fantasy production up for grabs in Portland’s frontcourt. Giles is averaging 1.11 FanDuel points per minute in 69 minutes without Nurkic on the court this season.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Enes Kanter (POR) vs. ATL $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Dwight Howard (PHI) @ MEM $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Kanter will presumably slide into the starting lineup on Saturday in the aftermath of Jusuf Nurkic’s fractured hand. He’s seen 223 minutes without Nurkic on the court this season and has managed to produce 1.20 FanDuel points per minute in that span. In addition to his increased role, the Hawks give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season.
  • Howard has been performing well as of late, averaging 21.7 FanDuel points in only 21.4 minutes over his last five games. With Joel Embiid already ruled out due to knee soreness, Howard is in line to slide into the starting lineup on Saturday. He’s played 209 minutes without Embiid on the court and has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute during that span.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Damian Lillard (POR) $9,300: Logo Lillard has topped 60+ FanDuel points in two of his last five games and appears to have hit his stride offensively. As previously mentioned above, Saturday’s game against the Hawks has the highest over/under on the slate, so he should have every chance to produce. While he is the most expensive point guard on the slate, I’m fine building out my roster around him as this could be a game where Lillard goes bonkers.
  • CJ McCollum (POR) $9,200: As stated above, this game is a shootout waiting to happen. McCollum has enjoyed a great start to the season and has scored 50 or more FanDuel points in two of his last four games. Given the lack of elite options in Saturday’s main slate, stacking both Lillard and McCollum could be an excellent foundation to build your lineup around.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Trae Young (ATL) $8,800: What’s going on with Trae Young? After a blazing hot start to the season, he’s struggled mightily from a fantasy perspective since the calendar flipped to January. He’s only averaging 31.8 FanDuel points over his last six games and is coming off of a four-point outing in Friday’s loss to the Jazz. While he could ignite at any moment, I’d like to see him string together a couple of nice performances before playing him in DFS.
  • Tyler Herro (MIA) $6,500: Herro has enjoyed elite usage over the last couple of games, with most of Miami’s key players landing in the league’s health and safety protocols. While he has produced nicely, Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo have both been upgraded to questionable for Saturday’s game, and they should each regain their large roles on offense. Herro has seen a 29.5% usage rate with Bam and Dragic off the court this season but has seen that percentage trickle down to 17.7% when all three are playing. Additionally, Herro has been added to the injury report with a neck issue, baking in further risk to his $6,500 price tag.
  • Ja Morant (MEM) $8,500: The matchup is enticing,  but Morant hasn’t suited up since suffering a Grade 2 ankle sprain back on December 28th. While it does appear that he was able to beat the 3-5 week timetable he was originally given, I’d be willing to bet the Grizzlies want to ease their franchise player back into the mix after 19 days away from the court. The off chance that he could be limited in his first game back is enough to fade him at his $8,500 price tag.

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