FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (1/20)
Tonight’s the night! We’ll get to see the New Big Three play for the first time, and as excited as I am to watch them play, I don’t feel comfortable betting on the Nets’ star players.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.
- I’m a big fan of Ja Morant tonight, especially since the Grizzlies will have to lean on him until Jonas Valanciunas can return. The Trail Blazers give up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to opposing points guard, and the projected point total (222.5) is one of the highest on the slate.
- Cole Anthony will continue to start with Markelle Fultz done for the year. He’s had some up-and-down showings; he posted just 18.5 FD points on Monday after dropping 42.6 on Sunday. He’s a great upside play, but he doesn’t have a high floor.
- Patrick Beverley will play against the Kings tonight, and they give up the most FDPPG to the position. With Lou Williams still working back from injury, Beverley is a decent floor play at point guard. I’m targeting players on both sides of this matchup due to the high projected point total (230.5).
- I like Paul George a lot tonight. We should see lots of points in the matchup against the Kings, and fitting George into your lineup won’t wreck your budget. He’s averaging 41.2 FDPPG on the year.
- The Timberwolves give up the third-most FDPPG to opposing shooting guards, and Terrence Ross should be able to capitalize on the matchup tonight. Like Anthony, he’s been somewhat hit-or-miss, but he’s hit at least 5x value relative to this price in his last two games.
- Lonnie Walker IV has cooled off after posting 38.6 points last Sunday, but he’ll have a chance to bounce back in what should be a high-scoring game against the Warriors — the game’s projected point total is currently the second-highest (228).
- Again, I like to target players in high-scoring matchups, and Keldon Johnson is another one to feature against the Warriors. He hasn’t hit 5x in his last two games, but he did so in the two games before that, and he’s in a prime bounce-back spot tonight. It helps that the Warriors give up the 11th-most FDPPG to opposing small forwards.
- Kelly Oubre Jr. is on the opposite side of Johnson in what should be a high-scoring game. The Spurs give up the most FDPPG to opposing small forwards, where Oubre has played 39% of the time thus far (48% of his minutes have come at shooting guard).
- Although he’s listed at small forward, Carmelo Anthony plays power forward (88%) and center (12%) for the Blazers. He’s in line for extra work with both C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined, and with Valanciunas out, he won’t face much resistance. The Grizzlies have been especially bad against centers, as they give up the fourth-most FDPPG to the position.
- Kristaps Porzingis is far too cheap for his matchup against an injured (or absent) Myles Turner. Porzingis has played center 99% of his time thus far, and the Pacers have given up the ninth-most FDPPG to the position to date.
- Coming back to the Clippers and Kings matchup, Serge Ibaka should be in line for plenty of work at center. The Kings give up the third-most FDPPG to the position, too.
- With Dario Saric out, Jae Crowder should see some extra minutes against the Rockets. It’s not the best matchup, but Crowder is a respectable volume-based punt tonight.
- Nikola Vucevic is the correct way to go at center this evening. Karl-Anthony Towns remains sidelined, and Minnesota gives up the most FDPPG to opposing centers.
- If you want to pivot away from Vucevic, Enes Kanter will have an easy task against a Valanciunas-less Grizzlies team that gives up the fourth-most FDPPG to centers. Kanter dropped 55.5 FD points against the Hawks on Saturday, and he has that kind of upside tonight.
- Naz Reid is a decent punt; he’s cheap and should get a ton of minutes with Towns out.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,900 at MIN: Again, Vucevic should be chalk at center tonight. The T’Wolves give up the most FDPPG to opposing centers, and they won’t have KAT due to COVID-19.
- Domantas Sabonis (IND) $9,600 vs. DAL: With Turner sidelined, Sabonis will have to do more work in the paint. He posted 49.8 FD points in a blowout loss to the Clippers in his first game without Turner; he has much more upside tonight.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,100 vs. SAC: Leonard has played shooting guard 64% of the time this season, and since the Kings have allowed the most FDPPG to the position, I’m confident that he’ll hit value tonight.
- Ja Morant (MEM) $7,900 at POR: Morant is my favorite play at point guard tonight with the Grizzlies pressed for depth.
- Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,500 vs. MIA: Lowry is averaging 5x value against this price point, and he’s had above-average showings in two of his last three games.
Notable Players to Fade
- James Harden (BKN) $10,700 at CLE: You’ll notice a pattern with the players I’m fading tonight. We’ve yet to see how the New Big Three play on the court together, and I would avoid spending up for them until we’ve seen how they play together. This game has blowout potential, too, which could limit their minutes.
- Andre Drummond (CLE) $10,500 vs. BKN: Since I expect this game to get out of a hand early, Drummond may not see a ton of run. He won’t post the absurd stats we saw him drop against the Knicks a few days ago.
- Kevin Durant (BKN) $10,300 at CLE: See Harden, James.
- Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,200 at CLE: See Harden, James.
- Jarrett Allen (CLE) $6,800 vs. BKN: Allen is far too expensive for a backup on a new team. I want to see how the Cavs plan to use him with Drummond still in town, and until I do, I refuse to pay this much for the talented center. I know I said that this game has blowout potential, which could lead to extra minutes for Allen, but that’s far too risky of a pivot to justify spending $6,800 on Allen.
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