FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (1/27)
We had some incredibly low-scoring games last night, as three of six teams on the slate failed to clear 100 points. No team scored more than 108 points. Yikes. Let’s hope for some more effective offensive performances tonight!
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
We’ve got a pretty big slate tonight — 12 games are set to tip-off, giving us plenty of DFS options. Two games have particularly attractive projected point totals, ATL/BKN (239) and GSW/MIN (227.5), so I’ll target folks in those matchups. I’m avoiding players in DAL/UTH (222) and OKC/PHO (216) due to their relatively low posted totals. All totals come from BettingPros’ consensus odds tool.
I limit my value per dollar selections to players under $7,000, and I’ll try to emphasize players below $5,500 to help you find bargain-bin value so you can fit in some studs.
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) $6,800
I love MPJ tonight. The Heat have struggled against small forwards this year (where Porter plays 52% of the time), especially without Jimmy Butler, and Porter is a low-risk play below $7,000. He dropped 44.6 FD points the last time he was on the court.
Jarred Vanderbilt (MIN) $5,400
I mentioned earlier that I’m targeting Warrior and T’Wolves tonight, and Vanderbilt is the first such player to make this article. He hasn’t scored fewer than 29.8 points over his last three games, so he’s a safe bet to hit 5x value — especially since the Warriors give up the third-most FDPPG to opposing power forwards.
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $5,300
Bogdanovic makes this list because he’s the freshest Jazz starter heading into tonight. He played just 24 minutes last night, while every other member of the starting five played 30-plus. As a result, he may get some extra minutes, and those would be extra valuable against the Mavericks’ 10th-worst defense against small forwards.
Steven Adams (NOR) $5,000
The Wizards are bad. They continue to collapse late in games, and they’re giving up the fourth-most FDPPG to opposing centers. Adams should demolish them tonight, especially since they’re on the wrong side of a back-to-back.
Cole Anthony (ORL) $5,000
The Sacramento Kings give up the most FDPPG to opposing point guards. With Markelle Fultz out for the year, Anthony has been starting at point guard for the Magic, and he’s hit at least 5x value against this price in his last two matchups.
Joe Harris (BKN) $4,700
I said I would feature some Nets, and here’s the first one. Look for Harris to post a ton of points in what should be a high-scoring game — especially because he dropped 30-plus FD points in both of his earlier games against the Hawks.
Donte DiVincenzo (MIL) $4,400
I’ve been DiVincenzo’s hype man all year, and that’s not changing this week. He’s hit 5x value against this price in five of his last eight games; while that stretch included a three-game cold streak, he recovered with 25.3 FD points against the Hawks. Since the Raptors give up an above-average number of FDPPG to opposing shooting guards, I’m sticking with DiVincenzo tonight.
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $4,300
The next Net up: DeAndre Jordan. Jordan didn’t do a whole lot the last time these two teams met, but Jarrett Allen was still a Net then, so Jordan will have to compensate for his absence.
Raul Neto (WAS) $4,200
The Wizards just played last night, and Neto is one of their fresher players. He got just 22 minutes to Russell Westbrook’s 28 and Bradley Beal’s 35. As a result, look for him to see some extra run in the rotation at guard.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NOR) $4,200
The Pelicans love NAW so much that they’re shopping Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick to free up more time for him. I’ll ride that vote of confidence into tonight’s slate against the Wizards, who give up the fifth-most FDPPG to shooting guards.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Kevin Durant (BKN) $10,700: Durant scored 60.2 and 47.6 FD points against the Hawks earlier this year, good for an average that’s above 5x value. With Brooklyn’s newfound lack of depth, Durant should have to do even more work if the Nets want to beat the Hawks.
- Trae Young (ATL) $10,600: I’m targeting all sides of what should be a high-scoring game, so Young is the next logical pick.
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,500: I expect a bunch of points in what should be a faced-paced game between the Warriors and T’Wolves, and Curry will probably do most of the damage for Golden State.
- Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,200: Irving is the cheapest of Brooklyn’s Big Three, and while he didn’t hit 5x value against this price point when these teams met earlier this month, I’m optimistic about him now that the Nets have less depth.
- Jerami Grant (DET) $8,400: Grant has been incredibly consistent. He’s scored fewer than 38.1 FD points just once in his last six games, and he’s hit 5x value against this price point in eight of his last 11.
Notable Players to Fade
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,500: The Mavericks and Jazz both rank bottom-six in possessions per game, so don’t expect much scoring tonight.
- Bradley Beal (WAS) $10,300: Beal just carried the Wizards with 33 points in 35 minutes last night, so look for him to see less usage here.
- Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,800: I still don’t think the market has adjusted Drummond’s value enough now that Jarrett Allen is in town. Drummond has hit 5x just twice since Allen’s arrival, and his ceiling appears to be much lower.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $8,500: The Suns play at the fourth-slowest pace, and their defense should limit SGA’s scoring opportunities tonight.
- Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $8,200: With a slow pace of play, I don’t expect much out of Doncic or Mitchell here.
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