Then there were four. We’ve officially reached the final weekend of a “regular” slate of NFL games for the 2020-21 season with Conference Championship games this Sunday. With a short slate like this, the variance among lineups is going to be razor-thin. Fortunately, or unfortunately, there’s plenty of solid options at almost every position this weekend.
I’m considering each of the players below for cash-game lineups this week:
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Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (BUF): $8,500 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Perhaps no quarterback has been hotter than Josh Allen over the last couple of months. Since the last meeting with the Chiefs, the Bills’ only loss came in the DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary game. Allen has thrown for 300 or more yards six times in that time span. Of course, the last time these two teams played, the Chiefs’ defense played fairly well and limited Allen to just 16.1 Fanduel points, the third-lowest total he’s had all season (including last week’s win against the Baltimore Ravens).
This weekend, Allen is priced as the QB3 behind Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. It’s looking likely that Mahomes will play in this game, which presents an extra incentive to “pay down” for Allen in order to maximize your exposure to other high-priced targets in this game. Again, there are only two games to choose from, so your options are “limited,” but there’s really no wrong answer at quarterback this weekend. Every one of them could blow up in a big way.
Playoff QBs passer rating under pressure:
1. Josh Allen – 108.6
2. Patrick Mahomes – 74.3
3. Tom Brady – 61.9
4. Aaron Rodgers – 55.2 pic.twitter.com/v8uBEdek7B— PFF (@PFF) January 21, 2021
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $8,700 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s really difficult for me to justify paying up for Mahomes this weekend. I’m not particularly bearish on any of the quarterbacks this weekend, but for me, the ability to save any amount of money could be the difference in a key skill position player. The way to beat the Buccaneers is through the air, and if I am moving off Allen at quarterback, I’m likely going to spend the extra $200 in salary to get Rodgers at home while spending down at running back.
Other notables: Tom Brady (TB): $7,800 @ GB; Patrick Mahomes (KC): $9,000 vs. BUF.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (TB): $7,200 at Green Bay Packers
How far we’ve come to where Fournette is a cash-game play in the Conference Championships. But given the opponent’s inability to stop opposing running backs, Fournette is one of the most appealing plays of the weekend.
Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has repeatedly mentioned that he likes “riding the hot hand” at running back. While teammate Ronald Jones saw some action last weekend against the New Orleans Saints, Fournette was still the primary back. That said, Jones still got a lot of carries during his snaps. Priced at $5,600, he could be a great pivot if you want to take advantage of the Packers’ shoddy run defense.
Postseason snap counts! Here are offense and defense for Bucs-Saints. Heavy lean again on Leonard Fournette, with Ronald Jones getting 13 carries in his 21 snaps. pic.twitter.com/aWW9N8ErAX
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 18, 2021
Aaron Jones (GB): $8,000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s going to have to be a spot where you significantly spend down at some point, and it will likely involve making a determination between whether you want to start Jones. Fun stat: Aaron Jones has rushed for a touchdown in all three of his career playoff games. However, the Buccaneers’ run defense has been stellar all season, and they might be getting Vita Vea back in the fold this weekend. Jones has considerable upside, but at his price, it’s going to be difficult to justify starting him over one of the elite receivers. His performance against the Rams last weekend shouldn’t be overlooked, though.
Aaron Jones refused to go down in the Divisional Round. ???? (by @bridgestone)@Showtyme_33 | @packers | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/cfktPHAMzq
— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2021
Other notables: Devin Singletary (BUF): $5,800 @ KC; Darrel Williams (KC): $6,000 vs. BUF (If Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out).
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs (BUF): $8,300 at Kansas City Chiefs
Over the last six games, Diggs has topped 100 receiving yards five times. He’s scored six touchdowns. In four of those six games, Diggs had 11 or more targets. He’s a volume monster in the biggest game of his career. There’s simply no way I’m not playing Diggs in this spot.
Stefon Diggs: Straight fire ????????????
100+ rec yards in 5 of the last 6 games. The only time he missed, he came out at halftime.
130 rec yds, TD vs. PIT
147 rec yds vs. DEN
145 rec yds, 3 TD vs. NE
76 rec yds in the 1st half vs. MIA
128 rec yds, TD vs. IND
106 rec yds, TD vs. BAL pic.twitter.com/LMM7dfBoFu— Nick Veronica (@NickVeronica) January 17, 2021
Davante Adams (GB): $9,000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Diggs and Adams are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the slate’s receivers, including Tyreek Hill. Last week, Adams was matched up against Jalen Ramsey for a good portion of the game. We all saw early and often just how much that mattered in the grand scheme of things. While Carlton Davis has been one of the better cornerbacks in the league this season, as Adams said to Ramsey, “I’m not some of the dudes that you’ve covered.” That said, Davis got the better of Adams when they played back in Week 6:
Carlton Davis vs. Davante Adams in shadow coverage
???? 66% routes covered
???? 3 catches
???? 33 yards pic.twitter.com/DEGwBl8KPp— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 19, 2021
Remember, however, that the Packers’ offense as a whole was miserable that entire game, and it was Adams’ first game back from injury.
Other notables: Chris Godwin (TB): $6,800 @ GB; Allen Lazard (GB): $5,700 vs. TB;
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC): $8,600 vs. Buffalo Bills
While Mark Andrews had a pedestrian game last week for the Ravens, he was targeted 11 times. If the Buffalo defense has an exploitative trait for fantasy purposes, it’s opposing tight ends. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season. This is still a vulnerability despite the presence of linebacker Matt Milano, who missed six games during the regular season. When these two teams met the first time, Kelce caught five passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, Milano did not play that game. As good as Milano has been, however, Kelce is an entirely different animal this season.
Cameron Brate (TB): $5,000 at Green Bay Packers
Quietly, Brate has amassed 11 targets, eight catches, and 130 receiving yards over the Buccaneers’ last two games. Those came against the Washington Football Team and the New Orleans Saints. Given his low salary, he could be a viable FLEX option if you want to roll out the double tight end strategy.
Defense/Special Teams
Green Bay Packers D/ST: $4,400 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With all the superstar offensive players to choose from, it’s almost a shame that you have to pick a defense to play this weekend. That said, the Packers have only allowed one opponent to score more than 18 points over their last six games. Only two of those teams surpassed 300 total yards of offense as well. While the weather is projected to be a balmy 28°, the presence of approximately 6,000 Packer faithful in the stands could make for enough home-field advantage to help Green Bay win. Just note, however, that the Buccaneers have only turned the ball over twice since their Week 13 bye. That said, Brady has taken nine sacks over the last five games. If the Packers can generate pressure on Brady, likely the least-mobile quarterback remaining in the playoffs, they could pay off their hefty price this weekend.
Other notables: Buffalo Bills D/ST: $3,400 @ KC.
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Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him @MGiraldi.
