Well folks, we have finally made it out of 2020. There’s no telling whether 2021 will be any better, but with each new year there comes the hope that positive change is on the way. After this past year, it won’t take a lot of positive change to make the start of this year better than the last. With the first weekend of 2021 however comes the final week of the NFL regular season.
There have been postponements. There’s been schedule reshuffling. We have seen star players inactive and we’ve seen key fantasy players lost to season ending injuries. A season that didn’t seem like it would make it this far has powered through and Week 17 is already up to Week 17 things. Players are being rested, players are being shut down and others are simply TBD. As is always the case, please pay close attention to late-breaking news this week. Keep those early game players out of your FLEX spots. Finally, thank you for reading this piece each week (or just this week). I really do hope that this season has been good to everyone out there, whether you’ve only dabbled in DFS or whether you were able to win your season long fantasy league. Happy New Year’s and best of luck in 2021.
I’m considering each of the players below for cash game lineups this week:
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Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (MIN) $7,700 at Detroit Lions
The Minnesota Vikings might not have anything to play for when it comes to playoff seeding, but the team shouldn’t be benching starters and Dalvin Cook will be missing from this game.
The Vikings as a team surely have to be disappointed in their overall performance, but the Cousins has played exceptionally well this season.
Clean pocket, straight dropbacks:
Dropbacks with NO play action and NO pressure
Top 10 in EPA per play
(data from PFF/TruMedia) pic.twitter.com/ET8pbWCPxN
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 30, 2020
The Lions rank 31st in pressure generated and are ranked 32nd in pass DVOA on the season and since Week 10. There’s also a chance for rookie receiver Justin Jefferson to reach a couple goals this season. He is 47 yards away from the Vikings rookie receiving record and 111 yards away from the NFL rookie receiving record. The playoffs aren’t in reach, but expect the Vikings to do everything they can to get Jefferson his individual records.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $8,200 at Houston Texans
Fire up the Titans this weekend. Tannehill will be a safe cash game play this weekend with a soft opponent, however keep close attention to the status of Deshaun Watson on the other side of the field. If for whatever reason he is inactive in this game, it could quickly turn into a blowout and Tannehill might not have as high of an upside that he normally would in this ideal situation.
Per PFF however, “Vernon Hargreaves III sits at 40.9, Eric Murray comes in at 50.4 and linebackers Tyrell Adams and Zach Cunningham sit at 40.7 and 41.3, respectively.”
This is the pass defense that’s going to be up against Tannehill and the Titans. Seriously.
Woof.
Other notables: John Wolford (LAR): $6,500 vs. ARI; Justin Herbert (LAC): $7,600 @ KC
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (IND): $8,400 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Yes please to Taylor this weekend in DFS. The Colts need a win and some help this weekend. The Jaguars meanwhile have their bags packed and their fishing gear ready for the off-season.
Honestly, this is a smash spot that is probably just a “eat the chalk” moment. Over the last five weeks, the Jaguars have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. This probably isn’t going to change this week. Oh, and yet again, there’s another player that has a season-long goal that’s attainable.
Sunday vs. Jax is all about win and hopefully in. What probably would help Colts is getting Jonathan Taylor to 1,000 yards. Needs 84 vs Jax run D ranked 30th (145.3).
Jax 32nd overall (416.4)— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) December 28, 2020
Myles Gaskin (MIA): $6,700 at Buffalo Bills
Gaskin gets a RB1 workload and just isn’t priced accordingly in DFS. When he’s healthy, he’s the lead back for the Dolphins. Since Week 6, if Gaskin has been active he’s played on 70% or more of the Dolphins offensive snaps.
Myles Gaskin is thriving this season as the Dolphins' lead back. @BenjaminSolak breaks down why he's been so successful and what it means for the future of the Miami backfield.#FrontOffice33 | #FinsUphttps://t.co/5SKrKhI0PN
— The Draft Network (@TheDraftNetwork) December 30, 2020
Other notables: Ronald Jones (TB): $6,600 vs. ATL; Alvin Kamara (NO): $9,400 @ CAR
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,000 at Detroit Lions
As I mentioned above, Jefferson has a couple records that are within reach and with Cook not playing the Vikings offense is going to have to be run (pardon the pun) through Cousins. The match-up is perfect too for Jefferson and teammate Adam Thielen.
Most receiving yards over the last 4 weeks:
1. Darren Waller – 537
2. Calvin Ridley – 525
3. Stefon Diggs – 514
4. Travis Kelce – 438
5. Davante Adams – 420
6. DeAndre Hopkins – 405
7. Allen Robinson – 384
8. Justin Jefferson – 349— Jarad Evans (@PFF_Jarad) December 30, 2020
Davante Adams (GB): $9,300 at Chicago Bears
The Green Bay Packers are still playing for the number one seed, and in the 2020-21 season that is a big deal. Considering that a win also likely eliminates the Bears from playoff contention, expect the Packers to be all-in on playing their starters a full compliment of snaps.
Adams has found success against the Bears in recent years as well. Over his last seven games against the Bears, Adams has scored a touchdown in all but two games. He’s had eight or more targets in six of those seven games with 80 or more receiving yards in four of the games. Another player we can add to the “what has he got to play for” category as well:
Davante Adams 3 receptions, 191 receiving yards, 1 TD away from Packer records
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) December 31, 2020
Other notables: Allen Robinson (CHI): $7,700 vs. GB; A.J. Brown (TEN): $8,400 @ HOU; Marquise Brown (BAL): $6,000 @ CIN.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki (MIA): $5,900 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills aren’t giving up much to opposing offenses, but over the entire season they’ve given up a good amount of fantasy points to tight ends. Of course, a good chunk of that was while Matt Milano was missing games for them. His presence certainly bolsters their defense against tight ends.
When these two teams met for the first time this season, Gesicki topped 100 receiving yards (his only occurrence this season). Funnily enough, that was the only 100 yard receiving tight end the Bills have allowed this season as well.
Robert Tonyan (GB): $6,300 at Chicago Bears
The Packers passing game is where I’m focused for this game, particularly with the recent news about David Bakhtiari potentially suffering a torn ACL in practice. Tonyan and Adams should be heavily targeted in the passing game with short-to-intermediate targets.
The Bears have been atrocious against opposing tight ends this season. This should serve as a get right game for Tonyan too. Prior to last week, he had scored a touchdown in five straight games.
Other notables: Mark Andrews (BAL): $7,200 @ CIN; Darren Waller (LV): $7,800 @ DEN.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens D/ST: $4,900 at Cincinnati Bengals
Well, paying up last weekend for defense certainly didn’t work if you took the Cleveland Browns. Of course, once their entire wide receiver corps went out with COVID it changed the dynamic for that game. The Ravens this week are playing for a playoff spot while the Bengals are likely headed for the third pick in the NFL draft with a loss.
Other notables: Arizona Cardinals D/ST: $3,800 vs. LAR; Seattle Seahawks D/ST: $3,900 @ SF.
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Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him @MGiraldi.
